Barnum effect

The Barnum effect, also known as the Forer effect, is a psychological concept that refers to people’s tendency to accept very broad generalizations as being accurate and specifically descriptive of their own personality or circumstances. This is especially true when the generalizations are positive and the person making them is perceived as having some level of authority. The Barnum effect explains why people think that horoscopes, psychic readings, and online personality tests are true. Most of the time, the statements people believe are quite vague. For example, statements such as, “You enjoy being with friends, but sometimes you like your quiet time” and “You’ll have some challenges this week but will come out on top” are true for so many people that nearly anyone could consider them an accurate description of themselves and their situation. Such vague statements often appear in online personality tests or horoscopes. When people believe these statements accurately describe them, the Barnum effect is at work.

Background

The Barnum effect is named after Phineas Taylor “P.T.” Barnum (1810–1891). Barnum was an American showman and promoter known for establishing the Barnum & Bailey Circus. Barnum was skilled at exploiting people’s gullibility with hoaxes and outlandish sideshow exhibits at his circuses and shows.

For example, one of his attractions was the “FeeJee Mermaid,” a display that was purported to be a mermaid mummy but was actually a combination of monkey and fish remains. Barnum referred to his practice of creating attractions that were entertaining but fraudulent as “humbugging.” He earned great profits doing this.

In 1948, American psychologist Bertram R. Forer (1914–2000) conducted an experiment with his college students. He gave them a series of questions to answer. Based on their answers, he promised to give them a brief psychological profile the following week. The profiles he returned all contained the same vague statements, which Forer found in a book of horoscopes that was readily available at newsstands.

When Forer asked the students to assess the accuracy of the statements, the majority of them felt that the statements were accurate reflections of their personality. The average rating was 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 5, with 5 representing the highest level of accuracy. Foster waited until the students rated the responses before letting them know they had all received the same personality analysis.

Forer wrote about the experiment and came up with the idea for the Barnum effect phenomenon. However, the phenomenon did not acquire its name until about a decade later. American psychologist Paul Meehl (1920–2003) coined the term in a 1956 article published in American Psychologist. In the article, Meehl raised concerns about some psychologists using indistinct statements, such as those used by Forer in his experiment. He referred to them as “Barnum statements,” and the related phenomenon of people accepting these statements as truth became known as the Barnum effect.

Overview

The Barnum effect refers to the ease with which many people will accept that a very general, non-explicit statement applies to them. Personality is usually defined by the traits that identify someone as a unique individual. According to the Barnum effect, however, many people will accept vague statements about their own personality if these statements are presented correctly.

Cognitive biases are the reason for this. They are erroneous ways of thinking, reasoning, remembering, or analyzing information based on an individual’s preferences and past experiences. The Barnum effect is related to the cognitive biases most people have in wanting to believe the best about themselves and accept statements coming from authoritative sources as true.

The effect comes into play in a wide range of situations. Some online surveys or “personality tests” purport to tell people about themselves based on the colors they like or their favorite celebrities. These surveys use Barnum statements that could apply to a wide range of people. Many “cold readings” by people claiming to be psychics rely on people’s tendency to believe Barnum statements as well. The psychic will say something like, “You’ve suffered a loss and are still grieving.” Since many people have suffered a loss, they have a tendency to accept this as an affirmation of the psychic’s ability and trust other statements as well. The Barnum effect can come into play with the phenomenon of imagined illness. This occurs when individuals read or hear about the symptoms of a particular illness and start to believe they have that condition, although the description could apply to many different health issues. The Barnum effect can also be found in marketing and advertising materials and self-help books.

In many cases, the Barnum effect is relatively harmless. However, people who are particularly gullible have been defrauded by alleged psychics, mediums, and others claiming to have special knowledge of the future or the ability to reach spirits in the afterlife. People who make decisions based on bogus information provided through Barnum statements could also suffer ill effects. For example, suppose someone reads a fortune in a fortune cookie that says, “Today is the day to make that big move.” The person might take that as a sign that it is time to quit their job, despite the vague nature of the statement.

People can avoid falling victim to the Barnum effect by testing statements for validity and reliability. Psychologists advise people to keep in mind that a five-question online quiz is not a valid sample to reliably determine a person’s character or preferences. Being aware of the source of the statement and assessing its validity can also help; sources such as astrology sites and fortune cookies provide the same information to hundreds or thousands of people. Therefore, they are not individual assessments. Finally, people can identify Barnum statements by assessing whether the statement could apply to a wide range of people or only to a few. Even statements that provide an accurate assessment of a person’s trait, such as, “You often seem more confident than you are,” is still a Barnum statement if it can apply to a wide range of people.

Bibliography

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“The Barnum Effect.” California State University, Fullerton, psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/psych101/barnum‗demo.htm. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.

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Fineran, Kerrie, et al. “The Barnum Effect and Chaos Theory: Exploring College Student ACOA Traits.” Journal of College Student Psychotherapy, vol. 24, no. 1, Jan. 2010, pp. 17–31. EBSCOhost, https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=f6h&AN=46837979&site=ehost-live. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.

Forer, B. R. "The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Classroom Demonstration of Gullibility." The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, vol. 44, no. 1, 1949, pp. 118-123, doi.org/10.1037/h0059240. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.

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Poškus, Mykolas Simas. "A New Way of Looking at the Barnum Effect and its Links to Personality Traits in Groups Receiving Different Types of Personality Feedback." Psychology, vol. 50, Feb. 2014, pp. 95-105, doi:10.15388/Psichol.2014.50.4893. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.