International Futures

International Futures (IFs) is a computer-based modeling system. This large-scale program projects the future, providing theory-based data about how the world will look in the coming years. First developed by mathematician Barry Hughes in 1980, the model is regularly updated. It is housed at the University of Denver’s Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, and it is available in a downloadable version or online, without charge, for anyone to use.

The purpose of the IFs modeling system is to present possible scenarios of the future across the globe and allow users to explore various alternative possibilities. The modeling system serves as a tool that facilitates analysis of the future, whether country-specific, regional, or global.

Users of the IFs system can predict the future by researching how major classes of agents such as households, governments, and firms will interact in different subsystems. Subsystems include demographic, economic, social, agricultural, educational, international political, environmental, and sociopolitical. Also included are energy, technology, infrastructure, and health; 188 countries across the world are represented in the IFs system.

Brief History

Barry Hughes created the first generation of IFs in 1980. He wrote it in FORTRAN programming language and made it available on mainframe computers at the University of Iowa. Early iteration of IFs were used primarily by students, but even then, some specialists noted and took advantage of its policy-analysis capabilities.

In 1985, the second generation of IFs was created. In accordance with the computing abilities of that time, International Futures moved to microcomputers with the DOS platform. The modeling system still lacked country or regional differentiation.

The third generation of International Futures was presented in 1993. New computer capabilities allowed the system to become a full-scale microcomputer model. While improving upon its early representations of energy, food, and demographic systems, the third generation also added environmental and sociopolitical content. Three major editions of IFs were produced as part of the third generation, and each was accompanied by a book written by Hughes called International Futures.

There were two more editions of the third generation. The second edition moved to a user-friendly Windows-based interface that used a menu. The third edition added longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis, as well as global mapping capacity.

The early 2000s brought the fourth generation of IFs. By that time, it was used increasingly for policy-analysis purposes, so its programmers focused on enhancing its usability.

The fifth generation, produced from 2004 to 2009, had three major aims. One was enhancement of the model through clearer representation of the agent classes and the addition of new models, such as education and health. Another was improved usability, achieved through the addition of features such as a specialized display that allowed exploration of poverty at different income levels. The third focus was improved accessibility and transparency, as well as deeper connections to other model users.

In 2007, the University of Denver opened the Pardee Center for International Futures. From 2009 through 2014, the center published books known as "The Patterns of Potential Human Progress." Based on the IFs system, the books explore the outlook for human development until 2060. Each volume concentrates on a key aspect of human development, considers how it has evolved, and examines how to veer it toward the right direction.

The sixth generation of IFs reflected these books, resulting in improvements to the major subsystems of the model: population, economics, health, infrastructure, and governance. Additionally, in this generation, the web-based version of the model was strengthened.

The seventh generation, initiated in 2014, continued to improve upon existing elements of IFs and their usability. New capabilities, such as new methods of forecasting diplomatic interactions, were added.

The eighth generation was released in 2022 and noted a transition in the underlying coding language, moving from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .Net. This shift allows both online and standalone user interfaces. The change also allowed developers to use more visualization tools.

Overview

International Futures is a modeling system that forecasts alternative pictures of the future. Its menu-driven interface can display the results of a base case and alternative scenarios of any time spans between 2000 and 2100. IFs provides mapping capability, graphs, tables, and a special display format for demographics of different age groups.

Users can get a picture of different projected scenarios by changing hypothetical interventions by agent classes (such as households or governments). They can save their scenarios, so they can continue to develop them over time.

An extensive database, comprising data from 164 countries since 1960, grants the ability to perform longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis. The database can also be used to look back at historic forecasts made from 1960 to 2000 and compare those projections with facts about how history actually unfolded.

Functions

IFs has three central functions: display of results, scenario analysis, and data analysis. In the display area, it offers standard graphs and tables, such as line and pie graphs. Users can choose any variables in the model and display them over time. They can also create new variables by combining and transforming existing ones.

IFs scenario analysis function allows users to choose variables to design their own global scenario or to view a preloaded global scenario in an area of interest. They can compare the predicted effects of various policies, examine secondary and tertiary effects of policy interventions, and see how diverse policy interventions would interact with one another.

The data analysis function provides an assortment of tools with which to investigate IFs extensive database. The database draws on available data from respected sources such as the World Bank, as well as specialized sources. Tools for analysis include longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis.

Access

The IFs model is available free of charge online and in downloadable form. Also, Google’s Public Data Explorer system offers access to existing forecasts from IFs.

IFs prides itself on its transparency and availability. Its underlying code is open-source, and anyone is welcome to develop subsystems for use within the model.

IFs was originally conceived as an educational tool, and it is used as the basis for classes at the University of Denver and other universities. The free use of IFs in academic settings is encouraged.

Pardee Center

The Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Studies houses the IFs model. The center publishes extensive research that explores development and change. It considers the past, evaluates how trends are moving, and seeks to understand how best to advance human well-being.

IFs is intended to help improve understanding the consequences of action or inaction. With this knowledge, policy makers can avoid unintended long-term consequences of actions and choose better methods of achieving their goals.

To that end, the Pardee Center partners with international governmental organizations, governments, and corporations. They produce research, forecasts, analyses, and new analytical tools.

Bibliography

Hughes, B. B. "The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project." Simulation & Gaming (1999): 304-26. Print.

Hughes, Barry B., et al. "Exploring Future Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development." Sustainability (2012) 4 (5): 958-94. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.

Hughes, Barry B., et al. "Opportunities and Challenges of a World with Negligible Senescence." Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2015) 99: 77-91. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.

Joshi, Devin K., Barry B. Hughes, and Timothy D. Sisk. "Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50 Years." World Development (2015) 70: 286-302. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.

Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, et al. "Global Futures of Trade Impacting the Challenge to Decarbonize the International Shipping Sector." Energy 237, 2021, doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121547. Accessed 30 Jan. 2025. 

O’Neill, Brian C., et al. "The Roads Ahead: Narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Describing World Futures in the 21st Century." Global Environmental Change. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.

Pearson, Roy. "Using the International Futures Global Modeling System (IFs) for Alternative Scenarios by the Numbers." Foresight (2011). Print.

Rothman, Dale S., et al. "Challenges to Adaptation: A Fundamental Concept for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and Beyond." Climatic Change (2014) 122 (3): 495-507. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.

van Ruijven, Pieter, et al. "Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research." Climatic Change (2014) 122 (3): 481-94. Web. 30 Dec. 2015.