Moore's law
Moore's Law is a prediction made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965, stating that the number of transistors on a silicon chip would double approximately every two years, resulting in smaller, more powerful, and increasingly cost-effective computing devices. This observation stemmed from Moore's analysis of the trends in integrated circuit technology, which showed that advancements in manufacturing processes allowed for greater transistor density over time. Initially predicting a yearly doubling, he revised this to every two years in 1975, a trend that held true for several decades, even accelerating to every eighteen months in the early twenty-first century.
The implications of Moore's Law extend beyond mere transistor counts; it has influenced the evolution of computers from large, room-sized machines to compact devices like smartphones and tablets. This ongoing miniaturization has facilitated significant automation processes, leading to reduced production costs and consumer prices. However, advancements slowed in the late 2010s, raising questions about the future validity of Moore’s Law. As transistors reach the limits of miniaturization due to physical constraints, experts are divided on whether this slowdown marks the end of Moore's Law or a temporary phase in the semiconductor industry.
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Moore's law
Moore's law is a prediction stating that the number of components on a single silicon chip will double every two years, as they are gradually made smaller. Intel cofounder Gordon Moore initially made this prediction. From the time the first transistors were built in the 1940s, manufacturers sought to shrink them as much as possible to increase the maximum number of transistors that could fit on integrated circuits. Moore observed that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits doubled every year as smaller transistors were developed. He also predicted that this trend would continue into the future. In 1975, Moore extended the time frame of his prediction to every two years. As it subsequently proved true over time, this prediction became known as Moore's law. In the years since it was first described, Moore's law has actually been exceeded, with the number of transistors doubling every eighteen months in the twenty-first century. During the late 2010s, semiconductor advancement slowed to slightly below Moore's law.
Background
Moore's law was the brainchild of tech industry pioneer Gordon Moore. A California native born in San Francisco in 1929, Moore developed an interest in chemistry as a child that eventually led him to pursue a career in science. After studying at San Jose State University and the University of California at Berkley, Moore earned a doctorate in physical chemistry from the California Institute of Technology in 1954. Upon completing his education, Moore briefly took a job at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland before returning west in 1956 to join the newly founded Shockley Semiconductor. The company that laid the foundation for the Silicon Valley, Shockley Semiconductor, was an influential player in the emergent tech industry.
During his time at Shockley, Moore focused on improving the complicated process of diffusing tiny impurities into silicon to enable the manufacture of transistors and other similar devices. Within less than a year, however, he and a number of other Shockley technicians grew dissatisfied with the company's strategy and strict management style. In 1957, Moore and his colleagues left Shockley and founded Fairchild Semiconductor. Starting at Fairchild as an engineering manager, Moore eventually became the company's director of research and development. Among other things, his contributions helped pave the way for the manufacture of the first integrated circuit. The integrated circuit is a thin piece of semiconductor material that is specially processed, so a tiny electric circuit can be etched on its surface. Each of these circuits can contain millions of microscopic transistors. Working with these circuits and transistors eventually led Moore to make his famous prediction in 1965.
When Fairchild Semiconductor began experiencing difficulties in the late 1960s, Moore and colleague Robert Noyce left the company and founded the Intel Corporation. With Moore serving as its chairman and CEO, Intel initially focused on semiconductor-based computer memory before turning its attention to the manufacture of microprocessors. On the strength of its revolutionary microprocessors, Intel became the world's largest chipmaker. For his part, Moore stayed involved with the company until he retired in 1997 and began spending most of his time pursuing philanthropic interests.
Overview
While working on integrated circuits and transistors at Shockley Semiconductor, Moore observed that the number of transistors found on a single square inch of integrated circuit doubled every year from the time such circuits were first produced. In 1965, he predicted that this trend would continue well into the foreseeable future. Ten years later, Moore revised his prediction, suggesting the number of transistors would double roughly every two years. This hypothesis, which came to be known as Moore's law, proved to be true for decades to come.
The importance of Moore's law extends far beyond the prediction itself. Because it suggested that the size of transistors would continue to decrease over time, Moore's law implied that the size of computers and the various machines that run on computers would also gradually grow smaller. This meant that the cost of high-powered computers would decrease as time went on as well. As engineers built computers with better integrated circuits made possible by smaller and more efficient transistors, they would eventually be able to automate some key processes. Increased automation, in turn, would lead to lower labor costs for manufacturers and lower prices for consumers. All of this ultimately turned out to be just as Moore predicted.
The fulfillment of Moore's law did not happen on its own, however. Decreasing the size of the transistors and other components found on integrated circuits took decades of continuous technological improvements and innovations. Most of these advancements involved changes in the way that integrated circuits were manufactured, including the introduction of more sophisticated metal connections between the various circuits found on each chip. Such breakthroughs allowed computers to evolve from massive, room-sized machines to handheld devices like tablets and smartphones. In short, Moore's law and the tech industry's determination to fulfill its potential were an essential part of computer technology's rapid advancement in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.
Despite its optimistic outlook, Moore's law will inevitably reach its physical limit at some point. By the 2010s, the development of nanotechnology allowed for the manufacture of transistors that are smaller than a virus. Although such microscopic transistors are remarkably efficient, it is unlikely that scientists will ever be able to make transistors that are any smaller. In large part, this is because the amount of energy required to keep transistors properly cooled exceeds that amount of energy that passes through those transistors due to their minute size. Because of this phenomenon, transistors will become unusable once their size decreases past this critical threshold. Given this limitation, there will come a point when Moore's law will no longer be valid. During the late 2010s, semiconductor advancement slowed past the rate predicted by Moore's law. Some experts argued that this meant Moore's law was no longer in effect, while others argued that it was a temporary slowdown.
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