India-Pakistan Peace Process

    Summary: In July 2011, India and Pakistan resumed talks that were part of a "peace process" launched in 2004 and suspended by India in 2008 after a terrorist attack on Mumbai, India. The 2011 talks sought accord on "confidence-building measures" that fall far short of an all-encompassing settlement of the two nations' fundamental dispute over Kashmir. These measures range from adding scheduled bus trips across the Line of Control in Kashmir to benefit families living on either side of the truce line to agreeing on a dam started by India in 1985. The talks resumed after a suspension of more than two years after India accused Pakistan of aiding and abetting terrorists who attacked Mumbai in November 2008. That raid, in turn, was one in a long string of attacks dating from 1989, carried out by radical Islamists wishing to establish a Muslim state, either independent or part of Pakistan, in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The conflict over Jammu and Kashmir, usually called simply Kashmir, began in 1947. Kashmir was a quasi-autonomous principality in British India whose Hindu ruler had hoped for complete independence and resisted joining Pakistan or India. After Pakistani Muslim militants invaded in October 1947, Kashmir asked for military aid from India, which they provided on condition that Kashmir cede to India control over defense, foreign relations, and communications, which it did. This arrangement angered the majority Muslim population in Kashmir. A full-scale war between India and Kashmir ensued, the first of two. The second was in 1965. Many analysts view the long string of Islamist terrorist attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere in India as an undercover war sponsored by the Pakistani military but carried out by civilian militants.

    By 2023, discussions between Pakistan and India had failed to resolve significant issues. This was epitomized by the closing of the May 2023 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit without significant issue resolution. Nonetheless, a 2021 ceasefire along the Pakistan-India Line of Control (LOC) exceeded three years without a serious incident between the two countries. The LOC is the "front line," or the furthest point at which the militaries of both countries have deployed troops in opposition to the other. It currently exists in the Jammu and Kashmir provinces.

    In Depth Background. Highlights of the tumultuous history of conflict between India and Pakistan include:

    • October 1947-January 1949: After fifteen months of fighting, the two sides agree to a ceasefire mediated by the United Nations (UN) on January 1, 1949. The ceasefire agreement includes a provision for a popular referendum on whether Kashmir should be part of India or Pakistan. That referendum is never conducted.
    • April 1965-January 1966: A second war over Kashmir ends as Indian Prime Minister Shri Lal Bahadur and Pakistani President Ayub Khan sign a UN-mediated agreement in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in January (1966). The ceasefire includes a provision to negotiate future conflicts.
    • 1972: India comes to the aid of rebels seeking independence for East Pakistan (later, Bangladesh), resulting in a third Indo-Pakistani war. Later, the two sides sign the Simla Accord, agreeing to establish bilateral working groups to negotiate points of contention.
    • 1999: In February, Indian Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sign the Lahore Pact, agreeing to intensify efforts to reach a resolution on Kashmir.
    • 2001: In December, Islamist terrorists attack the Indian Parliament building in Delhi. India breaks relations with Pakistan, and both nations send more troops to their borders.
    • 2004: Pakistan's President Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Vajpayee issue a joint statement addressing India's concerns about cross-border infiltration and Pakistan's interest in resolving the Kashmir dispute.
    • 2005: In April, President Musharraf signs agreements to facilitate family reunification across the Line of Control (LOC) in New Delhi.
    • 2007: In secret talks, the two sides come close to an agreement under which Kashmir would become an autonomous region shared by both countries. The agreement is never finalized.
    • 2008: In November, gunmen from Pakistan attack targets in Mumbai, India. India accuses Pakistan of providing help to the terrorists and suspends the peace talks.
    • 2011: India says it was ready to resume the previously suspended peace process in February.
    • 2016: In the deadliest attack in over twenty years, four individuals storm an Indian army base in Uri, killing eighteen. Gunshots or building fires injure twenty. Pakistan denies involvement, but the gunmen killed in the attack were wearing Pakistan-identifying clothing.
    • 2019: Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a Pakistani extremist group, kills forty Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) paramilitary troopers in an attack in the Pulwama region. Adil Ahmed is identified as the group's suicide bomber. The United States issues a warning to Pakistan not to harbor terrorism.
    • 2019: Pakistan opens the Kartarpur Corridor, allowing Sikh pilgrims from India to cross the border to visit the Sikh shrine without a visa. Prime Minister Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi states, "This corridor is the beginning, and things will move further toward improving relations between Pakistan and India."
    • 2019: Increasing friction, New Delhi splits the Himalayan region into federally administered territories, withdrawing the region's autonomy.
    • 2019: India negates Article 370 of its Constitution. Article 370 contained language authorizing semi-autonomy to the provinces of Jammu and Kashmir.
    • 2020: Violence along the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir peaks, with more than four thousand cross-border firings in the year.
    • 2021: Pakistan and India announce a ceasefire at the disputed LOC in Kashmir.
    • 2022: Pakistan experiences extreme flooding. Though citizens face food shortages, the country will not consider importing lower-cost food products from India because the Kashmir problem was not settled.
    • 2022-2023: India limits independent media in the Kashmir region to take further control of the region.
    • 2023: The May 2023 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in India fails to produce positive negotiations between the countries.
    • 2024: The High Commissioner position in both countries remains vacant.

    Key Issues. The peace talks in 2011 focused on eight specific confidence-building measures:

    • Kashmir. Resolution of the long-standing dispute over the sovereignty of Kashmir, a state of India since 1957.
    • Peace and security. The two sides could take relatively small steps, such as facilitating family members' visits across the LOC between Pakistan and Kashmir.
    • Siachen, a glacier in Kashmir between the Pakistani and Indian-administered areas. It is heavily fortified and is the site of occasional clashes.
    • Sir Creek, a marshy area between the Pakistani province of Sindh and the Indian state of Gujarat. It was the site of bitter fighting in 1965 and has been heavily fortified.
    • Terrorism and drug trafficking. India accuses Pakistani military intelligence of sponsoring terrorist strikes in Kashmir and India.
    • Nuclear weapons. India and Pakistan both tested nuclear weapons in 1998. They previously agreed not to attack each other's nuclear facilities, but the prospect of a nuclear exchange remained.
    • Wullar Barrage/Tulbul navigation project. A dam began by India in 1985 on the Jhelum River. Pakistan objected that the dam would obstruct the flow of water used for irrigation in Punjab province. India suspended construction in 1987.
    • Economic and commercial cooperation and promoting friendly exchanges is a catch-all phrase that includes expanding people-to-people contacts, free trade, and business opportunities between the two countries.

    Other preconditions. In 2024, both countries listed steps their counterparts must take prior to the resumption of normalization talks. India insisted that Pakistani incursions into India must cease. India also holds that Pakistan must stop employing terrorism as a tool to obtain diplomatic concessions. Pakistan maintains that India must reverse its 2019 abrogation of Article 370.

    Bibliography

    Abbas, Khurram, and Muhammad Ahmad Khan. "Could the India-Pakistan Relationship Normalize in 2024?" The Diplomat, 12 Jan. 2024, thediplomat.com/2024/01/could-the-india-pakistan-relationship-normalize-in-2024. Accessed 23 Aug. 2024.

    "As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep It Alive." United States Institute of Peace, 21 Feb. 2024, www.usip.org/publications/2024/02/fragile-kashmir-cease-fire-turns-three-heres-how-keep-it-alive. Accessed 23 Aug. 2024.

    Bhattacharyya, Harihar. Federalism in Asia: India Pakistan Malaysia Nepal and Myanmar. 2nd ed. Routledge Taylor & Francis Group, 2021.

    "Conflict Between India and Pakistan." Global Conflict Tracker, Council on Foreign Relations, 28 June 2023, www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan. Accessed 10 Oct. 2023.

    Indurthy, Rathnam, and Haque, Muhammad. "The Kashmir Conflict: Why It Defies Solution." International Journal on World Peace, vol. 27, no. 1, Mar. 2010, p. 36.

    Khan, Feroz Hassan. "Prospects for Indian and Pakistani Arms Control and Confidence-Building Measures." Naval War College Review, vol. 63, no. 3, 2010, p. 17.

    Ranjan Sen, Sudhi."UAE Brokering Secret India-Pakistan Peace Roadmap: Officials." Aljazeera, 22 Mar. 2021, www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/22/bb-uae-brokering-secret-india-pakistan-peace-roadmap. Accessed 10 Oct. 2023.

    Suban, Kumar, and Shakirul. “Does Terrorism Matter in South Asian Peace Process?: A Perspective of India-Pakistan.” Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, vol. 3, no. 2, Aug. 2020, doaj.org/article/5143b75a8fcd4dafac34aba21b6d8d10. Accessed 9 Oct. 2023.