Butterfly effect

The butterfly effect is a theory that states that small changes in one place can prompt significant changes elsewhere. The theory's origins are related to an accidental discovery made by a meteorologist in the early 1960s. It has since been incorporated into chaos theory, a mathematical theory that states that the ability to predict the outcome of a progressive event (such as a weather formation) is dependent on how closely the event adheres to the initial variables. The theory has helped scientists better understand and predict natural phenomena such as weather. The butterfly theory has also been incorporated into pop culture, particularly films and books that deal with the idea of traveling back in time.

Background

In the early 1960s, American meteorologist and mathematician Edward Norton Lorenz was using a computer to run some weather forecasts. He set up a program to rerun a forecast he had already completed. Instead of setting it up exactly as he had on the previous attempt, Lorenz rounded one of the twelve variables from six digits to three. When he looked at the results, Lorenz was amazed to see how that small alteration had completely changed the predictions for weather two months into the future.

Lorenz realized that this phenomenon could also occur in real life if the variables were even slightly different. The variables he used in his computer calculations were things like wind speed, temperature, and humidity. If the wind blew a little harder or if the temperature was a little higher or lower, this could drastically change not just projected weather but the actual weather.

When presenting his theory to his scientific colleagues in 1972, Lorenz used a metaphor to help explain it. He suggested the potential for change was as if a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could cause a tornado in Texas weeks later. As a result, the phenomenon became known as the butterfly effect. However, experts have said this is a simple figure of speech, and it does require more of a variation than the flapping of a butterfly's wing to have an impact on the weather.

The name still seems appropriate when it is viewed in the context of the visual representation of the weather model Lorenz was using when he discovered the phenomenon. The model, which Lorenz called "the strange attractor," compiled the variables and drew looping lines in a figure eight on a black background to represent the potential weather effect. Slight variations to any variable resulted in a different design, but each resembled a butterfly.

Overview

The butterfly effect, known more formally as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions," explained why it was so difficult to predict things in nature, particularly the weather. According to the butterfly theory, even relatively slight deviations from the variables a meteorologist used in a forecasting model could result in a completely different outcome from what was predicted.

To counteract this, Lorenz suggested that meteorologists run all forecasting models multiple times and change the variables to reflect all possibilities. The various models could then be compared. If they still agreed, it indicated a high likelihood the forecast would be accurate. If there was a range of outcomes depending on the variables, the forecast was less likely to be correct.

The butterfly effect became part of chaos theory, which Lorenz helped define. The theory states that small changes can result in extreme unpredictability in progressive or dynamic events. This included things like weather, astronomical events, the performance of financial markets, and political situations. According to the theory, the way variables interconnect in any of these examples means that changing one variable causes a corresponding change in other variables.

For instance, a company manufacturing parts for cell phones might see its stock value rising steadily when it receives a contract to produce a highly anticipated new phone. However, unexpected events (such as a strike by workers who produce raw materials for one of the phone's components or the revelation of a scandal among the company's corporate leadership) can suddenly cause investors to sell their stock, which will result in the stock's price falling. In these cases, changes in variables related to the availability or desirability of the phone resulted in a change in another variable, the value of the stock of a company involved in its production.

Lorenz's theory differed from the more orderly scientific theories of scientists such as Sir Isaac Newton, an English mathematician and astronomer who suggested the natural components of the universe worked like a clock with few variations. Traditional scientific theories did not account for deviations in predicting how natural events might play out. The large number of variables in things like the weather, the population growth of animals and other life-forms, and the effects of natural phenomena such as ocean waves increased the likelihood of errors when predictions were attempted.

In some instances, the idea of chaos theory and the butterfly effect are used to explain or excuse why it is so difficult to predict certain situations or events, like the weather. It is also sometimes used to accentuate the importance of relatively minor events in relation to outcomes. Still, the original intent of the concept was to make meteorologists, mathematicians, economists, sociologists, and others in scientific fields acknowledge and consider the importance of variables in setting up prediction models. In the twenty-first century, many have advocated for considering the butterfly effect in studies of human impacts on climate change.

The butterfly effect has been incorporated into several movies, television shows, and science-fiction works dealing with time travel. The idea of going back in time to change one pivotal event has been a plot point in several popular works. Often, the characters in these works must be careful not to change anything other than that one event, or they must face the consequences that making additional changes will have on their world in the present or future.

Bibliography

Bishop, Robert. "Chaos." Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 11 Oct. 2024, plato.stanford.edu/entries/chaos/. Accessed 12 Nov. 2024.

Dizikes, Peter. "When the Butterfly Effect Took Flight." MIT Technology Review, 22 Feb. 2011, www.technologyreview.com/s/422809/when-the-butterfly-effect-took-flight/. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.

"Edward Lorenz, Father of Chaos Theory and Butterfly Effect, Dies at 90." MIT News, 16 Apr. 2008, news.mit.edu/2008/obit-lorenz-0416. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.

Lienhard, John H. "The Butterfly Effect." University of Houston, www.uh.edu/engines/epi652.htm. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.

Muhammad, Abdulgaffar, et al. "The Butterfly Effect and Its Implications for Resilience in Complex Socio-Ecological Systems." Journal of Environmental Science and Economics, vol. 2, no. 2, 2023, doi:10.56556/jescae.v2i2.533. Accessed 12 Nov. 2024.

Onion, Amanda. "Science behind the Butterfly Effect." ABC News, 23 Jan. 2004, abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=99596&page=1. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.

Pilat, Dan, and Sekoul Krastev. "The Butterfly Effect." The Decision Lab, thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/economics/the-butterfly-effect. Accessed 12 Nov. 2024.

Vernon, Jamie L. "Understanding the Butterfly Effect." American Scientist, vol. 105, no. 3, May-June 2017, p. 130, www.americanscientist.org/article/understanding-the-butterfly-effect. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.

Wolchover, Natalie. "Can a Butterfly in Brazil Really Cause a Tornado in Texas?" Live Science, 13 Dec. 2011, www.livescience.com/17455-butterfly-effect-weather-prediction.html. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.