Hurricane Patricia

Event Information

• Date: October 20–24, 2015
• Place: Pacific Ocean; Central America; Mexico; Texas
• Result: 6 fatalities; over $300 million in damage

Overview

Hurricane Patricia was a 2015 Pacific hurricane, the second-most intense tropical cyclone (a category that includes both hurricanes and typhoons), and the strongest hurricane reported thus far in the Western Hemisphere. Despite its initial size and potential for devastation, it resulted in few fatalities and limited damage to property, mainly because the storm weakened significantly before making landfall and then passed through lightly populated areas while it weakened further. Despite Hurricane Patricia’s explosive intensification, size, and record peak wind gusts, experts disagree as to whether climate change and global warming were responsible for it developing so quickly into the most powerful storm recorded to date. There is, however, a consensus that the climate cycle known as El Niño played a significant role in Patricia’s intensity.

Names for tropical storms and hurricanes are reused according to certain schedules laid out by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). When a sufficiently strong storm occurs, its name is retired. Due to its position in the alphabet, the name "Patricia" had not been needed for many of the prior Pacific hurricane seasons except in the following years: 1970 and 2003, when those storms never made landfall; 1974, when the storm weakened significantly before making landfall and therefore had very little impact; and in 2009, when Tropical Storm Patricia caused significant flooding in western Mexico but also never made landfall. Although 2015’s Hurricane Patricia also weakened significantly before reaching land, its initial size and record-breaking winds led the WMO to retire the name and replace it with Pamela, which is next scheduled for use during the 2021 season.

The 2015 Pacific hurricane season saw more named tropical storms and hurricanes than any season since 1971, when reliable record-keeping began. Although the eastern Pacific has on average fifteen named storms per season, 2015 saw eighteen storms, thirteen of which developed into hurricanes. The central Pacific region experienced six named tropical storms and eight hurricanes, five of which were considered major. Hurricane forecasters and researchers agree that an especially strong El Niño season in 2015, which warmed the waters of the Pacific Ocean and reduced winds that would help to weaken developing storms, was a significant factor in the high number of Pacific storms and in the formation of Hurricane Patricia. Furthermore, global sea surface temperatures (SST) were much higher in 2015 compared to previous decades, when global sea surface patterns persistently dampened the intensity of Pacific hurricane seasons.

Patricia began to form when a trough of low pressure, called a tropical wave, merged with a tropical weather pattern already in the area of Central America on October 15. These two events occurred in the midst of a gap wind, which is an area of strong winds that flow through the Pacific region. This then created a cyclone effect, which when joined with a second gap wind event that had formed in the area, consolidated over a period of days and formed what would be named Tropical Depression Twenty-E (TD20E) . (Tropical depressions are first numbered and then named if they intensify to the level of a tropical storm.)

TD20E intensified slowly, but once it formed into Tropical Storm Patricia during the evening of October 20, it cleared the dry air that had slowed its development and began passing over uncharacteristically warm waters that contributed to its rapid intensification. By October 22, Patricia was designated a hurricane and soon achieved Category 4 strength, the second-strongest hurricane rating. By the following day it had reached Category 5, and within this twenty-four hour period, its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 120 miles per hour (mph) to a recorded 200 mph, which was the fastest intensification ever observed. Peak wind gusts were recorded at 250 mph. However, due to the intensity of the storm, meteorological observation of maximum sustained wind speed during the storm’s peak was not possible. Measurements were therefore based on recorded observations from six hours prior to what would be determined as the storm’s peak. With this in mind, many experts believe that Patricia could very well have been the most intense storm in history.

The precursor weather patterns leading up to Hurricane Patricia caused flooding in Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua and damaged crops and approximately one hundred homes while displacing over five hundred residents. As it became clear that the hurricane would make landfall on Mexico’s coast, the Mexican government quickly implemented the newly formed national emergency response system. Reports indicate that residents were effectively warned of the imminent danger, and evacuation procedures were put in place and community shelters were opened. Despite the record-breaking wind gusts of the storm and the intensity and strength with which it developed, property damage and loss of life was much lower than expected. Analysts point to several factors: Patricia was significantly weakened by the time it reached land; Mexico’s mountainous coastline helped to further weaken the storm; and the hurricane was, compared to its strength, relatively compact and the geography it affected was sparsely populated. Major damage to Mexico was deemed not significant, and there was limited loss of life. The government reported an estimated 5.4 billion pesos in damage (approximately $5.4 million). Two deaths occurred when a tree fell during the height of the storm, and four more deaths occurred after a car accident during the heavy winds and rain of the storm’s aftermath.

Impact

Hurricane Patricia made landfall in Mexico, and its damage was mainly limited to sparsely populated agricultural areas as a result of flooding and winds. Agricultural and infrastructure damage was estimated at over $300 million.

Power outages were widespread throughout Central America and Mexico with many roads impassable. As the remnants moved north, the storm’s impact was limited to the southern part of Texas and included flash floods and heavy rains. Though some water rescues were necessary, no deaths or serious injuries occurred.

National and international organizations responded with recovery, rescue, and aid missions immediately. Power outages were widespread, and the Mexican government reported 88 percent restoration within two days of the storm. The Red Cross began distributing humanitarian aid on October 25. Because the hurricane hit during the late harvest season, the most serious problem was the impact on farmers. The Temporary Employment Program and a special national entrepreneurial program both helped to provide funds and work opportunities to Mexican farmers whose crops had been lost.

Bibliography

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Akpan, Nsikan. "The Science of How Hurricane Patricia Became so Colossal." PBS. NewsHour Productions, 22 Oct. 2015. Web. 9 July 2016.

Blackadar, Alfred K. Turbulence and Diffusion in the Atmosphere: Lectures in Environmental Sciences. New York: Springer, 2014. Print.

Kimberlain, Todd B., et al. "National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Patricia." NHC.NOAA. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 4 Feb. 2016. Web. 9 July 2016.

Samenow, Jason. "How Patricia, the Strongest Hurricane on Record, Killed so Few People." Washington Post. Washington Post, 26 Oct. 2015. Web. 9 July 2016.

Streever, Bill. And Soon I Heard a Roaring Wind: A Natural History of Moving Air. New York: Little, 2016. Print.

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