Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Earth’s climate is undergoing change brought about by industrialization. As researchers explore ways to slow, if not halt, the rate of this climate change, others are focusing on the effects this climate change will have on the planet. A growing field in environmental science is the study of where these conditions will be most severe and the areas most vulnerable to these adversities. This discipline also analyzes how civilization can adapt to climate change.

Basic Principles

One of the most pressing issues facing humanity in the twenty-first century is that, after more than two hundred years of industrialization, the pollution emitted into the atmosphere and the water is contributing to an increase in Earth’s temperature. Ultimately, this pollution will cause significant changes in the planet’s climate. Most scientists agree that such significant climate change has already begun.

While it is important to pursue ways to slow the rate of climate shift, it is also important to study the effects, the areas of particular vulnerability, and the avenues available to adapt to such changes. This area of scientific study developed during the latter part of the twentieth century. As evidence of climate change began to surface, interest in this field accelerated. The study of impact, adaptation, and vulnerability remains largely fragmented because case studies have been specific to the conditions of target regions. Scientists are still working to establish a uniform set of standards, terminologies, and principles, meaning the studies conducted are not easily melded with similar research conducted elsewhere.

Increasingly, governmental and intergovernmental organizations have developed programs targeting climate change. For example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established in 1992 to slow the rate of global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The UNFCCC assesses the vulnerability of poorer, developing nations at a higher risk of negative repercussions from climate change.

The applications for this field are varied. Some studies focus on a particular area of change, such as rising sea levels or severe weather. Other studies are concerned with the effects of weather patterns on the world’s impoverished. Some research has attempted to estimate the financial costs of different areas of climate change for political and economic systems.

The Impact of Climate Change

Climate change is likely to cause a wide range of phenomena. The most immediate (and often the most high-profile) of these is severe weather.

Among the types of meteorological events that could increase in both volume and severity are blizzards, hurricanes and typhoons, supercell thunderstorms (strong storms characterized by strong updrafts that produce torrential rain, hail, and tornadoes), and nor’easters (massive, rotating Atlantic coastal storms that produce large amounts of precipitation and strong winds). Climatologists have become increasingly concerned with data suggesting that the Pacific Ocean phenomenon known as El Niño is changing and could trigger more severe weather.

El Niño is a warm surface water trend in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warm, moist air is carried into the atmosphere and contributes to forming storms and precipitation-generating fronts. Scientists have discovered that patterns for El Niño (which is cyclical and occurs every four to twelve years) are changing because of global warming. Thus, longer lasting El Niño patterns are being produced, which will likely intensify the number and strength of storm systems.

Climate change also may be extending the duration of La Niña, another Pacific phenomenon. La Niña is characterized by a cooling in the Pacific’s surface temperature (enhanced by a lack of solar radiation). Under La Niña, cooler, drier air is captured in the atmosphere and reduces the number of precipitation events. As a result, La Niña contributes to droughts. With evidence suggesting that La Niña is, like El Niño, influenced by climate change in such a way that it is prolonged, the future impact could be devastating for the agricultural sectors and impoverished nations where food and water supplies are already limited.

In addition to meteorological phenomena, climate change affects the world’s oceans. The emission of greenhouse gases has caused an increase in the Earth’s temperature, which in turn has caused the planet’s glaciers and ice sheets to melt faster. This melting process (which can be accelerated with even the smallest shift in temperature) will cause the Earth’s sea levels to rise—according to some, by more than 1 meter (3 feet)—and cause beach erosion and damage to arable land.

The Economic Implications of Climate Change

Researchers are further examining the potentially destructive effects of severe weather and rising sea levels in economic terms. By linking climate change to business and economics, a wider range of people from all backgrounds can understand and appreciate the issue.

In the late 2000s, for example, the University of Maryland’s Center for Integrative Environmental Research released a study of the areas in which climate change is affecting US states. For example, the study found that Georgia could spend an extra $17 million annually for its transportation infrastructure (such as the trucking industry and roadway maintenance) because of the increase in severe storms along that state’s highway system. Meanwhile, Ohio's shipping industry could lose as much as $556 million annually because of Lake Erie's ongoing drop in water levels. Because of shallower waters, most freight ships used on Lake Erie would need to lighten their capacities by about 270 tons, leading to a loss of about $30,000 per ship.

Research on the economic effects of climate change has increasingly focused on one of the most vulnerable geographic regions in the industrialized world: the city. Cities are heavily concentrated with infrastructure, buildings, and people. Therefore, the effects of climate change (such as severe weather, smog, and heat and cold waves) affect more people and property than they do in rural areas. Heat and cold waves create spikes in energy use and costs, severe weather slows public transportation, and poor air conditions cause increases in health problems for older persons and persons with respiratory ailments. The economic effects on vulnerable urban centers include higher insurance rates, greater healthcare costs, increased maintenance expenses, and losses in employee productivity.

In 2019, a study highlighted the increase in income inequality caused by global warming and noted that the globe could lose 10 percent of its GDP by 2050. Despite the efforts of the Paris Agreement and other governmental emissions goals, some scientists assert that the damage is done.

Adaptation

Most scientists agree that climate change is not theoretical. Rather, it is a trend occurring as sea levels increase and more severe weather events cause greater property damage.

A concerted effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions could slow and even reverse climate change. However, halting the process would take much time. In the interim, scientists and policymakers agree that examining how civilization can adapt to these changes is important.

In some cases, municipalities are creating emergency management protocols that protect older people and other vulnerable residents in the event of a heat wave. Other areas are building and fortifying seawalls. Many governments are assessing and, where necessary, retrofitting infrastructure (such as water and sewer systems and roads and bridges) to account for flooding.

Adapting to climate change has become a focus of all levels of government. Global nongovernmental organizations and international governmental organizations (including the United Nations) have, since the late twentieth century, been proactive in tracking climate change and seeking adaptive measures. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a collaborative effort of the UN Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, launched a comprehensive study on managing the risks of extreme weather. The study features nearly six hundred pages of information, such as past periods of climate change, models predicting future climate shifts, and areas particularly vulnerable to climate shifts. Based on this information (which targets all audiences, including policymakers and others with a limited scientific background), the report provides insight into the best approaches to adjust to the phenomena.

As the twenty-first century progresses, the UN continues to publish studies aimed at aiding areas of the world to understand and adapt to global climate change and mitigate its effects. In 2024, the United Nations Environment Programme and the International Science Council published "Navigating New Horizons – A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing." The report highlights the most urgent issues regarding climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste and offers solutions to combat these issues. Following record-breaking heatwaves worldwide in 2024, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on global citizens to realize the time was imminent to understand how global climate change was affecting the most vulnerable. 

The approach to pursuing measures that adapt an area to the effects of climate change is similar to the insurance practice known as risk management. Under this concept, issues such as rising sea levels, severe storms, and drought are analyzed carefully. Models for the potential effects of such issues are then generated, illustrating the varying levels of severity in which climate-change-related phenomena may occur.

Using these data, researchers examine the many factors that may make a particular sector more vulnerable to these phenomena. Researchers calculate the target region’s economic, social, geographic, and ecological factors that foster sensitivity to extreme events. Furthermore, this pursuit also examines how prepared the target area is to adapt to these events. Based on this information and a thorough examination of the phenomena resulting from climate change trends, risk management practitioners develop recommendations for clients to help them and their constituents adapt to climate change. The decision-makers for whom these studies are prepared may, in turn, accept and follow these recommendations and save lives and property as climate change continues.

Principal Terms

El Niño: a meteorological condition in which the waters of the tropical, eastern Pacific Ocean are warmed by the atmosphere

La Niña: a meteorological condition in which the waters of the eastern, tropical Pacific Ocean are cooled by a lack of radiation from the atmosphere

nor’easter: massive, rotating Atlantic coastal storm that produces large amounts of precipitation and strong winds

supercell thunderstorm: severe type of storm characterized by strong updrafts that produce torrential rain, hail, and tornadoes

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