Principles of Macroeconomics

This article examines macroeconomic principles that are commonly taught in college courses. The various schools of macroeconomic thought are presented and the growing use of macroeconomic research in the public policy-making process is examined. Key government agencies that create and disseminate macroeconomic data are reviewed along with some of the types of data or indicators that the agencies provide. In addition, the expanding list of think tanks and organizations which create macroeconomic data or research are reviewed along with their history, goals, and funding sources. The importance of understanding the philosophy or political agenda behind the research in the policy-making process is also explained.

When discussing the principles of macroeconomics, it is important to remember that there is more than one school of thought in economics. Some of the important strains of economics are Austrian, Classical, Neoclassical Economics (NCE), Original Institutional Economics (OIE), Marxian, Schumpeterian, Keynesian, and Monetarism (Underwood, 2004). Each of these theoretical orientations approaches the study of economics differently and each has its own basis from which to develop principles. Thus, a central and universally agreed upon set of principles of macroeconomics is difficult. It is also noteworthy to mention that at the undergraduate level there is a bias towards Keynesian macroeconomics (Butos, 2006).

There is some debate as to the most important concepts to be taught in a macroeconomics course and perhaps even what constitutes principles of macroeconomics (Kennedy, 2000)(Taylor, 1997). It is important that material covered in a principles of macroeconomics course is simple enough to understand and consistent with the modern economy. It is also important that the material is relevant to contemporary economic policy and strategy evaluation (Taylor, 2000).

Mankiw's Principles of Macroeconomics

To assist in teaching economics and simplify the teaching of the many complex ideas in the academic discipline, Professor N. Gregoery Mankiw, author of one of the most popular textbooks, presents the principles of macroeconomics. Mankiw (1998) organizes concepts and begins a discussion of ideas regarding human behavior (including decision making and interaction) and the organization of economies. These principles were developed through the observation and analysis of human and social behavior. Mankiw's ten principles are (1998):

Decision making:

• People face tradeoffs
• The cost of something is what you give up to have it
• Rational people think at the margin
• People respond to initiatives

Human interaction:

• Trade can make every body better off
• Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity
• Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes

The Economy as a whole:

• A country's standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services
• Prices rise when the government prints too much money (inflation)
• Society faces short-term tradeoff between inflation and unemployment

Macroeconomic Analysis

Macroeconomic analysis is a data intensive discipline. One approach to examining and testing economic theories and principles is to examine the major components of an economy and the forces which impact that economy. This examination is undertaken by measuring economic activity or creating indices. Various governments and institutions around the world have worked to develop economic indices over the last several decades ("Informing our nation," 2004). The European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the Organization for Economics Cooperation and Development (OECD), all use indicators to measure economic conditions and performance.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis

In the United States there are seveal federal government agencies that provide data which helps to explain or analyze the condition of the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the Department of Commerce, is charged with producing economic statistics to help government and business decision-makers understand the state of the economy. The BEA collects data from numerous sources, conducts research, and provides an analysis of econmic data ("About BEA," 2009). Some of the many indicators that are of interest to economists, policy makers, and corporate executives are:

• Gross domestic product (GDP) which is the market value of all of the goods and services produce in an economy during the time that is being measured.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) price index. This index is designed to measure "the prices paid for goods and services produced by an economy" ("GDP," 2009). The index is created from several other measures including "the prices of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and net exports of goods and services" ("GDP," 2009).
• Gross domestic product (GDP)-by-industry accounts. This data shows the contribution of each private industry and government to the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP) ("GDP," 2009).

The Conference Board

In 1995 Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce decided to contract with a private organization to produce and disseminate monthly cyclical indicators. These included leading economic indicators and the composite leading index. The Conference Board was selected to provide the official composite leading, coincident, and lagging indexes. The Board also maintains the Business Cycle Indicators database, which has more than 250 economic series and publishes Business Cycle Indicators reports. The data series in the United States BCI dataset cover a wide range of topics including employment and unemployment, personal income and industrial production, interest rates and money supply, and consumer price indexes ("Why and when…," 2009).

The Conference Board is a not-for-profit organization located in New York City. The Board assesses economic trends, makes economics-based forecasts, and publishes analysis and indices. The Conference Board was established in 1916 and views itself as a network of thousands of business leaders from around the world and as an independent source of unbiased information and analysis. The board has established a global presence with relationships in Asia, Europe, India and the Middle East ("History of the conference board," 2009).

The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report is released monthly, usually in the third week of the month. The Business Cycle Indicators (BCI) monthly report not only highlights the leading index and indicators but also provides additional data series and historical graphs. The Conference Board also publishes the Consumer Confidence Index^™ which is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey^™ which polls a representative sample of 5,000 households in the United States (www.conference-board.org).

Other Sources of Economic Indicators

Another agency that is a major contributor of economic data is the United States Census Bureau. Economic statistics include information on retail and wholesale trade, construction activity, industrial output, capital expenditures, e-commerce sales, and foreign trade ("How to Find the Latest Business Data," 2009). Other agencies that create economic indicators include the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) which publishes quarterly house price indexes for single-family detached homes ("House Price Index," 2009). In addition, The United States Small Business Administration produces statistics and analysis that show economic conditions of small businesses ("Research and Statistics," 2009).

Applications

Applying Macroeconomics to Policy & Strategy

The Great Depression had a profound impact on individual citizens, small and large businesses, and governments at all levels. In 1933, the unemployment rate reached 25 percent in the United States and the real GDP fell 31 percent below its 1929 level (Mankiw, 2006). In 2008 the economic crisis toppled Wall Street firms, banks, mortgage companies, and automobile manufactures. It also and sent millions of people to the unemployment lines (Reinganum, 2009). This type of crisis clearly shows that the economy cannot go unmanaged and it is important that public policies which relate to the economy are well thought and properly executed.

There is a role in the policy making process for macroeconomics and economists (Perry, 1984). Since the mid-twentieth century the United States and other countries have implemented a wide variety of public policy initiatives that were ground in macro-economic principles or theories. These policies have impacted central banking, inflation management, monetary policy, and taxation practices (Chari & Kehoe, 2006). There have also been policies that have changed the wealth and status of social groups (Seguino & Grown, 2006).

Macroeconomics as a discipline focuses on the study of trends or events that impact an entire economy. This can include the study of what impacts the gross domestic product (GDP), total spending in a specific sector, global trade and national deficits, or the impact of interest rates on a wide array of economic conditions and activities. Economists also study topics concerning the societal distributions of resources including land, raw materials, and means of production of goods and the delivery of services. Economists also research a wide variety of business and social issues including energy costs, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, taxation, and unemployment levels.

When communicating the results of macroeconomic research it is important to present economic concepts and statistical data in an understandable and meaningful format. Providing analyses which includes reports with tables and charts to present their research results is a central part of an economist's activity.

Many economists specialize in a particular area of study. Industrial economists, for example, focus on the market structure of specific industries. International economists mostly focus on global financial markets, exchange rates, and the effects of trade policies and tariffs. A labor economist primarily focuses on studying the supply and demand for labor and trends in wages and benefits.

In 2006, there were about 15,000 economists employed in the United States. About half of them were employed by government agencies at the state and federal level. Non-government organizations (NGOs) such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization also employ economists. In addition, many economists work for research or consulting firms, financial service organizations, or private corporations. It is not unusual for an economist to supplement a full-time job in the public sector or academia with part-time consulting activities.

Economists employed in the public sector or by NGOs are most often concerned with public policy that either impacts the economy or policies that can succeed or fail depending on economic conditions. Economists that work for private corporations focus on analyzing economic conditions or trends that may impact the performance of their company as well as government policies and legislation that could hinder or aid in the growth of their company (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008).

Macroeconomics & Public Policy in the Coming Decades

Both macroeconomists and public policy makers have their work cut out for them during the coming decades. In 2013, the United States federal government faced a dramatic unsustainable growth in debt. This debt growth posed a number of risks, including a declining GDP that would eventually impact the living standards of almost all Americans. Rising inflation and higher interest rates were also concerns, as was the difficulty of attracting foreign investment. In addition to these concerns, which had lingered (though had not materialized) since 2008, the federal government anticipated the demands on the federal budget of entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security that would expand considerably with the aging and retirement of the "baby boomers." ("The nation's long-term…," 2008).

If the Federal deficit problems and an aging population were not enough to baffle both policy makers and economists, then add the fact that most Americans are deficit spenders. Until 2008, the typical American household spent more than their annual income by depleting past savings, selling off assets, or borrowing money ("National saving," 2006), particularly in the form of credit card debt and home equity loans. The financial crisis curtailed this behavior and savings rates jumped (Chamley, 2012). Meanwhile, the value of pension plans suffered greatly during the downturn of 2008; having lost over $2 trillion in value (Weller, 2009). The underfunding and even total loss of defined benefit plans remained one of the most intractable problems resulting from the financial crisis (Blitzstein, 2013). The bottom line for many workers in the United States is that they may need to work past their expected retirement age.

Applying macroeconomics to public policy is a complex problem. Policy designers must understand macroeconomic principles and be able to use them to draft policies. Then the United States Congress must understand the value of the policy to the overall economy and pass legislation that remains consistent with the intent of the draft policy. This is not an easy process. A wide range of groups will lobby congressional representatives and Senators to bend the policy in a direction that can help their causes. Once the legislation is passed, the executive branch will have responsibility to implement the policy or program designed to impact macroeconomic trends. Basically, the good that applying a macroeconomic principle could bring can easily be erased through this complex political process.

Issue

The Institutionalization of Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic principles and concepts are used by a variety of organizations in their efforts to influence the outcome of the public policy process and the legislative process that drives policy making. These organizations range from blatant lobbying efforts to sophisticated and well-respected research organizations. Clearly, macroeconomic principles and analysis have become tools in the arsenal of many organizations that strive to influence the outcome of policy making in democratic societies.

When weighing the value of macroeconomic research presented by these organizations, it is important to consider the source of the research as well as the motivation or political bent of the organization itself. Research can be made to look good and be presented in a very convincing manner. However, that does not make it good research. In addition, just because a researcher is educated in macroeconomic does not make them objective or unbiased. Some of the better-established organizations that provide macroeconomics research are detailed below.

Economic Policy Institute

The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) is a nonprofit think tank founded in 1986 and headquartered in Washington D.C. The Institute strives to include the interests of low-income and middle-income workers and their families in the formulation of economic policy. The EPI has a very impressive group of founders many of who have held high-level policy positions or prestigious university positions. The majority of funding (about 53%) comes from foundation grants and another 29% comes from labor unions. Other sources of funds include individuals, corporations, and other organizations.

The EPI conducts a wide variety of original independent research covering issues of concern for workers such as trends in wages and incomes, retirement security, and healthcare. Other research focuses on economic development strategies, world trade, and global competitiveness. EPI research is published in books, special briefs, and educational materials. EPI utilizes the research to brief policy makers as well as to provide technical support to activists and community organizations. Material is also disseminated to media outlets ("About the Economic Policy Institute," 2009).

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) is a nonpartisan policy research organization that was established to advise policymakers and the public on the economic impact of public policies. The goal of SIEPR is to improve long-term economic policy. SIEPR scholars have worked on a wide variety of projects including analyzing the impact of welfare reform in California, improvements in federal government budget policy, the fuel efficiency of automobiles, and energy policy in the United States. SIEPR accepts funding from individuals as well as corporations ("About SIEPR," 2009).

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a not-for-profit institution with a focus on government, politics, economics, and social welfare. The Institute, founded in 1943, stresses a nonpartisan perspective and position but asserts that it is in favor of limited government, private enterprise, individual liberty and responsibility, vigilant and effective defense and foreign policies, political accountability, and open debate ("AEI's organization and purposes," 2009). Research activities are divided into three major categories: Economic Policy Studies, Social and Political Studies, and Defense and Foreign Policy Studies. Funding for AEI comes from corporations, foundations, and individuals and by investment earnings from an internal endowment. AEI does not accept contract research projects and seldom accepts government grants ("AEI's organization and purposes," 2009).

The Urban Institute

The Urban Institute, founded in the mid-1960s, focuses its efforts on fostering sound public policy and effective government. Issues researched include economic policy and taxation, work and income, retirement, education, and crime. The research in the area of economics includes federal and state budgets and fiscal policy, income and wealth distribution, poverty, tax distribution, and social programs ("About UI," 2009).

The Brookings Institution

The Brookings Institution, a nonprofit organization based in Washington, D.C., conducts independent research designed to improve the economic welfare of Americans. Brookings publishes books, papers, and articles and sends its researchers to testify before congressional committees. Brookings stresses quality, independence, and impact. Founded in 1916, the institute has contributed to the establishment of the United Nations, design of the Marshall Plan, and creation of the Congressional Budget Office. Brookings receives funds through an endowment as well as contributions from foundations, corporations and private individuals. ("About Brookings," 2009).

American Institute for Economic Research

American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), founded in 1933, also stresses nonpartisanship and independence in its economic research efforts. AIER gets its funding primarily from annual member's fees, the sale of its publications, and tax- deductible contributions. The Institute also owns an investment advisory organization, American Investment Services, Inc., and profits from that subsidiary help fund the Institute. Publications include a twice-monthly research report covering current economic events and the Economic Bulletin that provides in-depth coverage of economics ("About AIER," 2009).

The Economic Cycle Research Institute

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) examines sequences in market-oriented economies, growth, employment and inflation. ECRI lays claims to expertise in cyclical investigation and cyclical forecasting to predict the timing of cyclical turns. This includes a broad array of cycle indexes. ECRI's funding comes from subscribers to their forecasting services ("About ECRI," 2009).

The Asia Economic Institute

The Asia Economic Institute (AEI), founded in 1999, focuses on developing discussion between figures in Asian economics with the goal of providing information about and acting as a source of knowledge about the economic markets of Asia. AEI is not accepting support through government funds or political contributions ("About Us, The Asia Economic Institute," 2009).

The Korea Economic Institute

The Korea Economic Institute (KEI) focuses on broadening the understanding among Americans about developments in Korea by providing information and analysis. Publications include a two-volume set entitled "On Korea," which is a compilation of academic papers that the Institute commissioned. KEI is a not-for-profit, educational organization that is closely affiliated with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy that is funded by the South Korean government ("Welcome to the Korea Economic Institute (KEI)," 2009).

The Montreal Economic Institute

The Montreal Economic Institute (MEI), established in 1999, stresses independence and non-partisan research on public policy issues. The MEI's goal is to develop and propose original and innovative public policies. The MEI studies markets in order to understand the mechanisms and institutions that promote long-term prosperity. The MEI is supported by Montreal-area entrepreneurs, academics and economists and does not accept any government funding ("Who Are We?," 2009).

Conclusion

Although textbooks may focus on, or present principles of macroeconomics, it is important to recognize that there is more than one school of economic thought. The viewpoints expressed by the economists and analytical approaches of these competitive schools should be considered before accepting any one set of macroeconomic principles as doctrine.

Macroeconomic principles and research is now used by a wide variety of government agencies, private corporations, non-profit organizations, and individuals to help guide policy, strategy, and decision-making. There have certainly been successful applications of macroeconomics to policy development but the legislative process is both complex and political. This means that even a policy which starts with a pure application of macroeconomics it can be influenced and altered by modifications, amendments, or changes in the committee legislative voting processes.

There is now a macroeconomic marketplace where principles and concepts are funded, sold, and leveraged by a variety of organizations. These think tank organizations are motivated by their desire to influence legislative outcomes. When assessing the validity of macroeconomic research presented by these organizations, it is important to consider the overall goals of the organization, its track record, and its funding sources.

Terms & Concepts

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The market value of all of the goods and services produce in an economy during a specified period of time.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index: Index designed to measure the prices paid for the goods and services produced by an economy. The index is created from several other measures including the prices of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and net exports of goods and services.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-By-Industry Accounts: This data shows the contribution of each private industry and government to the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP) ("GDP," 2009).

Monetary Policies: Government policies that control, shape, or impact how a nation's money supply and exchange with other currencies is managed.

National Deficits: The amount of money that a national government spends that is beyond the revenue collected by the government through taxes, fees, tariffs, or other sources.

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Suggested Reading

Bennett, D., Padgham, G., McCarty, C., & Carter, M. (2007). Teaching principles of economics: Internet vs. traditional classroom instruction. Journal of Economics & Economic Education Research, 8(1), 21-31. Retrieved March 24, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=32473859&site=ehost-live

Boskin, M. (1986). Some thoughts on teaching principles of macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Education, 17(4), 283-287. Retrieved March 24, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=5422224&site=ehost-live

Chamley, C. (2012). A paradox of thrift in general equilibrium without forward markets. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(6), 1215-1235. Retrieved October 31, 2013, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=83185420&site=ehost-live

Collard, F., & Dellas, H. (2008). Monetary policy and inflation in the 70s. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 40(8), 1765-1781. Retrieved March 31, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=35394121&site=ehost-live

Du, R., & Kamakura, W. (2008). Where did all that money go? Understanding how consumers allocate their consumption budget. Journal of Marketing, 72(6), 109-131. Retrieved March 31, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=34664495&site=ehost-livete=ehost-live

Lee, D. (1992). Internationalizing the principles of economics course: A survey of textbooks. Journal of Economic Education, 23(1), 79-88. Retrieved March 24, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=5421782&site=ehost-live

Levinson, M. (2009). The economic collapse. Dissent (00123846), 56(1), 61-66. Retrieved March 31, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Academic Search Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=36407227&site=ehost-live

Markowitz, H. (2009). Proposals concerning the current financial crisis. Financial Analysts Journal, 65(1), 25-27. Retrieved March 31, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=36181037&site=ehost-live

Montiel, P.J. (2011). On macroeconomic reforms and macro- economic resiliency: Lessons from the Great Recession. Modern Economy, 2(4), 528-537. Retrieved October 31, 2013, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=67763360&site=ehost-live

Philips, T., & Muralidhar, A. (2008). Saving social security: A better approach. Financial Analysts Journal, 64(6), 62-73. Retrieved March 31, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=35331740&site=ehost-live

The principles of macroeconomics at the millennium. (2000). American Economic Review, 90(2), 85-90. Retrieved March 24, 2009, from EBSCO Online Database Business Source Complete. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=3210669&site=ehost-live