Climate Migration
Climate migration refers to the movement of people forced to leave their homes due to the adverse effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and prolonged droughts. These migrations are increasingly recognized as a significant global issue, with the United Nations estimating that approximately 21.5 million individuals are displaced by climate-related disasters each year. Projections suggest that by mid-century, climate change could displace as many as 143 million people globally, particularly affecting vulnerable regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
While many climate migrants relocate within their countries, often from rural areas to urban centers, cities themselves face climate-related crises, leading to cross-border migrations as well. Despite the growing number of climate migrants, there is currently no formal recognition of their status under international law, such as the 1951 Refugee Convention, complicating potential support and solutions for affected individuals. Experts emphasize that proactive measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and developing effective migration management strategies, could mitigate the scale of future displacements. As climate conditions worsen, the challenge of addressing climate migration will become increasingly urgent, necessitating cooperation and innovative approaches to ensure the rights and well-being of displaced populations.
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Climate Migration
Climate change has caused devastating fires in California, rising sea levels that threaten island nations, drought that has contributed to multiple global conflicts, and a host of other problems. Experts primarily blame the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and gas, which has increased greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbated the rise in temperatures.
Each year, natural disasters force about 21.5 million people throughout the world out of their homes, according to the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Refugees, and scientists predict even more forced migration will occur as the planet continues to heat. By the middle of the twenty-first century, rising sea levels, drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other climate catastrophes are expected to displace at least 143 million people, according to the UN’s 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
People that must leave their homes because of the effects of climate change are called climate migrants. Even though climate change has caused massive displacement, the world has not officially recognized climate migrants or formalized solutions to help them. Climate migrants are not afforded refugee status under the 1951 Refugee Convention. This is partly because identifying climate migrants is complicated, especially where poverty, violence, and conflict are already rampant.
Background
Throughout most of human history, people have lived in places with a consistent temperature range in which the climate supported sufficient food production. However, rising temperatures are altering such stability. Scientists believe that Earth may see a greater temperature increase in fifty years than it did in the last six thousand years combined. By 2070, particularly hot zones such as the Sahara, which cover less than 1 percent of Earth’s land surface, could cover almost 20 percent of it, placing perhaps one of every three people outside the climate range in which humans have thrived for thousands of years. While some will endure extreme heat, hunger, and political chaos, others will have no option but to move on.
Most climate migrants move within the borders of their homelands, typically from rural areas to cities, after drought, rising seas, or other weather phenomena claim their homes. However, cities are also facing climate-related crises, including soaring temperatures and water scarcity, so climate migrants are increasingly fleeing across international borders.
Overview
While scientists have learned how to accurately predict climate change worldwide, until recently little has been known about the human consequences of such changes. In 2016, former US president Barack Obama formally observed the relationship between climate change, migration, and sociopolitical instability in a memorandum, “Climate Change and National Security.” It describes the many impacts of climate change—from rising sea levels to food shortages to extended drought—that could lead to population migration within and across international borders, especially in regions already facing instability.
The World Bank has predicted up to 216 million internal climate migrants globally by 2050. Disproportionate impact is expected on the poorest and most climate vulnerable areas. For example, in 2050, up to eighty-six million internal climate migrants may be in Sub-Saharan Africa; forty-nine million in East Asia and the Pacific; forty million in South Asia; nineteen million in North Africa; seventeen million in Latin America; and five million in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
However, experts also note opportunities to significantly curb these numbers and reduce the trajectory of internal climate migration by up to 80 percent by 2050. The recommended solutions include reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and recognizing a range of strategies to better anticipate and manage climate-induced migration. Population shifts that are predicted and well-managed can lead to effective adaptation, allowing people to escape poverty and build resilient livelihoods.
Given that the number of global migrants has doubled over the past decade, the issue of how to help them will likely take on greater urgency in coming years. If temperatures continue to rise, the climate will degenerate. The temperature has already exceeded 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius)—a heat level that is deadly for humans and that damages buildings, roads, and power stations—twice as often as in the past. This will require a migration larger than humanity has ever before undertaken.
If climate degeneration occurs, northern nations would have to help people in the fastest-warming countries by admitting more migrants. The alternative is sealing borders and trapping hundreds of millions of people in unlivable locations. The United Nations warns that, in the worst cases, the governments of nations most affected by climate change could topple as war and widespread political destabilization result.
To avoid this and have a sustainable world in the future, experts say some changes need to be made immediately. People need to develop a way to maintain their lifestyle, or a lifestyle similar to the one that they have, while reducing atmospheric carbon. They also need to dismiss the idea that people belong in a particular land and prepare to move when necessary. With each degree that the temperature rises, approximately one billion people will be displaced from their homes. They may have to move out of zones where humans have lived comfortably for thousands of years.
Bibliography
Greenfield, Nicole. “Climate Migration and Equity.” Natural Resources Defense Council, 9 May 2022, www.nrdc.org/stories/climate-migration-equity. Accessed 8 June 2023.
Lustgarten, Abraham. “The Great Climate Migration.” Pro Publica, 23 July 2020, features.propublica.org/climate-migration/model-how-climate-refugees-move-across-continents/. Accessed 7 June 2023.
Vince, Gaia. “The Century of Climate Migration: Why We Need to Plan for the Great Upheaval,” The Guardian, 18 Aug. 2022, www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval. Accessed 7 June 2023.
Voegele, Juergen. “Millions on the Move: What Climate Change Could Mean for Internal Migration.” World Bank Blogs, 1 Nov. 2021, blogs.worldbank.org/voices/millions-move-what-climate-change-could-mean-internal-migration. Accessed 7 June 2023.
Watson, Julie. “Climate Change Is Already Fueling Global Migration. The World Isn’t Ready to Meet People’s Changing Needs, Experts Say.” Associated Press/PBS News Hour, 28 July 2022, www.pbs.org/newshour/world/climate-change-is-already-fueling-global-migration-the-world-isnt-ready-to-meet-peoples-needs-experts-say. Accessed 7 June 2023.