Famine from global warming
Famine resulting from global warming is a pressing concern, as climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme weather events like floods and droughts, severely impacting food production and distribution worldwide. Numerous studies indicate that significant portions of the Earth, particularly in already vulnerable regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, are likely to experience drastic reductions in agricultural yield due to climate-related stressors. Researchers predict that by 2050, over 254 million metric tons of potential grain production could be lost across 65 developing countries, intensifying food insecurity. Areas already suffering from drought, including parts of Africa, Afghanistan, and various countries in the Middle East, are particularly at risk, with millions facing starvation or displacement.
The United Nations has emphasized the urgent need to increase food production by at least 60% by 2050 to ensure food security for a projected global population of 9.6 billion, in light of these challenges. Studies also highlight the dual threat of drought and flooding, both of which could lead to widespread famine conditions. Climate models suggest that if global temperatures rise by 2° to 3°C, regions across Europe, Asia, and the Americas could face severe disruptions in food supply and freshwater availability. As this situation develops, it serves as a critical reminder of the interconnectedness of climate dynamics and food security, urging global action to mitigate these impending crises.
Famine from global warming
There is considerable evidence that global climate change will continue, and floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events precipitated by these changes are likely to reduce food production and distribution significantly, resulting in famine in various parts of the world.
Background
Some groups deny that continuing global warming will lead to famine, arguing that the warmer climate exerts beneficial effects on food production and that the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) production from global warming serves as a fertilizing agent for plants. The majority of research, however, paints a very different picture. Numerous researchers associated with respected organizations conclude that climate change is real and that it is possible to predict when and where the most severe famines are likely to occur.
Findings of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Established in 1990, the Hadley Centre has been located in Exeter, England, since 2003 and has been recognized for the quality of the research on climate change carried out by its more than 200 scientists working in its climate research unit. In 2006, it predicted that about one-third of Earth will become desert by 2100, as a result of drought and its consequent desertification. A 2018 study by Nature Climate Change confirmed this trend, noting that more than 25 percent of Earth was expected to experience serious drought and desertification by 2050. Those areas of the world that are already victims of drought, such as Africa, will likely experience the most severe effects. The people predicted by the Hadley Centre to be the first victims of world climate change, called “climate canaries,” will be about three million pastoral nomads in northern Kenya. A way of life that has been sustained for thousands of years, therefore, faces eradication. Myriad herders have forsaken their traditional way of life to settle in Kenya’s northeastern province after their livestock were decimated. The situation is not limited to Kenya: at least eleven million people are affected from Tanzania to Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. In Sudan, 2.8 million people are affected by drought each year. The problem is not unique to Africa: Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Iran are all countries whose populations and food sources are at risk due to drought and other effects of climate change.
Predictions of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) likewise predicts the most severe impact of diminished food production and resulting famine to occur in African countries below the Sahara Desert. could result in an increase of as many as 90 million hectares of arid land, an area almost four times the size of Britain. The FAO’s predictions are not limited to Africa: Sixty-five developing countries, including more than half of the total population of the developing world in 1995, are expected to lose around 254 million metric tons of potential grain production because of climate change. Nor are the “extreme weather events” limited to drought and desertification. Flooding will bring devastating effects as well. During the first decade of the twenty-first century, more than six hundred floods caused $25 billion in damage, a substantial amount of which included the loss of some 254 million metric tons of potential cereal production. Another FAO study reported that at least ten million people in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Swaziland are threatened with starvation; even at harvest time, a serious food crisis persists. The United Nations (UN) warned to ensure food security for the 9.6 billion people projected to live on Earth by 2050; especially in the face of climate change obstacles, food production needed to see an increase of at least 60 percent.
Scholze’s Predictions
Mark Scholze of Bristol University has conducted research for the organization Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System (QUEST) involving world climate simulation predictions through the twenty-first century based on sixteen climate models. He poses several scenarios regarding fire, flood, and famine by the year 2100 and predicts that effects of an average of 2° Celsius in global temperature rise are inevitable and will cause of up to 30 percent in parts of Europe, Asia, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia. Freshwater shortages, likely due to drought, can be expected with a rise of between 2° and 3° Celsius in parts of West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern United States. As trees are lost, tropical Africa and South America will be subject to flooding.
Should a 3° temperature increase occur, an even more dangerous is likely: as temperatures rise, plants may begin to grow more vigorously and take up more carbon oxide from the air. When saturated, the ecosystem begins to respire more than it is taking up. Scholze’s data, which are in line with findings of the Hadley Centre, indicate that this could arrive by mid-century. These phenomena would cause a decrease in worldwide cereal crop production of between 18 million and 363 million metric tons and put 400 million more people in famine conditions. Scholze insists that fossil fuel combustion must be significantly curtailed before 2040.
Context
During the past two million years, the climate on Earth has alternated between cooling and warming. Thus, one might question the concern during the latter twentieth and early twenty-first centuries over global warming. The concern arises, because the Earth is growing warmer faster than it has in the past, as more greenhouse gases (GHGs) are released into the atmosphere. Over one hundred years ago, people worldwide began using more coal and oil for homes, factories, and transportation, thereby releasing CO2 and other GHGs into the atmosphere. Scientific data reveal that during the past century, the world’s surface air temperature increased an average of 0.6° Celsius. Even one degree can affect Earth’s climate.
Heavier rainfall has caused flooding in some areas, while there has been extreme drought in others, resulting in famine. The first half of the twentieth century was not unusual: The period of 1900 to 1939 brought mild winters, characteristic of a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) condition. However, in the 1950s, the global average temperature fell, and some thought an was imminent. Then, the NAO suddenly flipped to high, and many scientists declared that the warming was a permanent phenomenon because of humans’ promiscuous use of fossil fuels, making the likelihood of famine a consistent concern.
Key Concepts
- climate canaries: the first victims of world climate change, who serve as early warnings to others
- climate change scenario: a physically consistent set of changes in meteorological variables based on accepted projection of carbon dioxide and other trace gas levels
- desertification: the gradual transformation of habitable land into desert due to climate change or destructive land use
- drought: an extended period of months or years when a region experiences a deficiency in its water supply
- greenhouse gas (GHG): any atmospheric gas that absorbs radiation, contributing to warming of the Earth’s atmosphere
Bibliography
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Simon, Scott and Hadeel Al-Shalchi. "A Drought Caused by Climate Change Has Led to Faimine in the Horn of Africa." NPR, 27 May 2023, www.un.org/en/academic-impact/worlds-food-supply-made-insecure-climate-change. Accessed 10 Dec. 2024.
Thomas, Leah, et al. "Earth Will Start Becoming a Desert by 2050 If Global Warming Isn't Stopped, Study Says." Newsweek, 2 Jan. 2018, www.newsweek.com/earth-desert-2050-global-warming-768545. Accessed 10 Dec. 2024.
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