Analysis: On the Prospect of a Generals' Coup
The analysis of the prospect of a generals' coup in South Vietnam during the early 1960s provides insight into the political turmoil surrounding President Ngo Dinh Diem's regime. By August 1963, Diem's authoritarian rule had alienated many citizens, particularly due to his biased policies favoring Catholics over Buddhists. Tensions escalated dramatically after violent incidents against Buddhist demonstrators, including a notable self-immolation protest, which garnered significant media attention and public concern in the United States regarding its policy in Vietnam.
In this context, discussions within the U.S. administration, particularly among officials like Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, began to shift towards the potential for a military coup to change the government. While previous U.S. support for Diem was strong, Lodge's views marked a turning point, advocating for a coup as a necessary step for U.S. interests in combating communism in the region. However, the prospect of a coup posed significant risks for Vietnamese military leaders, creating uncertainty about American support during and after any attempted overthrow. This analysis highlights the complex interplay of domestic dissent, military strategy, and international diplomacy that shaped the U.S.'s involvement in Vietnam during this critical period.
Analysis: On the Prospect of a Generals' Coup
Date: August 29, 1963
Author: Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr.
Genre: report
Summary Overview
Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. sent this report to Admiral Harry Felt, the commander in chief of the US Pacific Command (USPACOM) and the superior to General Harkins, who is mentioned in the letter. By August 1963, South Vietnam was, domestically, falling apart. President Ngo Dinh Diem of South Vietnam had alienated the majority of the population. Having come into office via a rigged election, Diem ruled with an iron fist and reinforced his authority through his brother Nhu (Ngo Dinh Nhu), who served as Diem's unofficial political advisor and directed the ARVN Special Forces. As a result, there was no easy way to institute a change of government in South Vietnam; only the military would have the power to bring about change. Thus, the possibility of a coup had been discussed by many different individuals in the administration of President John F. Kennedy. Lodge had just become ambassador, replacing Frederick Nolting, who had been a strong supporter of Diem and was against any discussion of a coup. Thus, Lodge's support for a coup brought about a change in the dynamics within the American administration.
Defining Moment
The government of South Vietnam's president, Ngo Dinh Diem, had been biased toward Catholics and against Buddhists since its formal inception in 1955. In May 1963, this bias reached a critical point, when Buddhists in the city of Hue were attacked by government troops as they tried to celebrate the anniversary of Buddha's birth by displaying flags. The conflict continued to escalate, with a Buddhist monk burning himself to death in protest that June. Although American officials had known about the problem for a number of years, the monk's death brought the issue to the front pages of American newspapers. This increased the American public's concern about American policy in Vietnam. Within Vietnam, some military leaders had also been concerned for some time. On August 21, Diem instituted martial law, and his brother Nhu arrested more than a thousand Buddhist leaders. These events forced American and Vietnamese leaders to consider action against Diem sooner rather than later. One day prior to the release of Lodge's report, a communication referred to as Deptel 268 had been sent from Secretary of State Dean Rusk to Lodge with a request that Lodge respond the following day, when Rusk had a meeting scheduled with President Kennedy. Deptel 268 was basically an affirmation that the United States supported and encouraged a coup, and it requested Lodge assess the situation and work to make any attempt more likely to succeed. Deptel 268 was in response to a previous communication from Lodge that outlined which forces and leader were expected to take part in a coup against Diem in the very near future.
Any attempted coup tends to be a life-or-death struggle. If successful, all may or may not turn out well; but if unsuccessful, the death penalty is usually brought into play. Thus, while it was relatively easy for American officials to encourage this course of action, for the Vietnamese military officers and troops who might consider participating, there was great danger. Lodge's support for a coup, as contrasted with former Ambassador Nolting's opposition, made a significant difference in the discussion of American support. Although no coup was attempted in August, this discussion, and related communication with Vietnamese leaders, were part of the process that eventually did lead to one in November. By sending this communication via military channels rather than straight to Rusk, Lodge was attempting to insure that all individuals who would be needed to support a coup understood what was being recommended.
Author Biography
Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. (1902–1985) was part of a wealthy Massachusetts family. Having graduated from Harvard, Lodge entered the Massachusetts legislature in 1933, after working as a journalist. Elected to the US Senate, he served from 1937 to 1944, when he resigned to continue to serve in the army. Having served with distinction, he returned to the Senate in 1947 for one term. He lost his bid for re-election to John F. Kennedy in 1952, as he focused on helping Dwight Eisenhower win the presidency. In 1953, Eisenhower appointed him as the ambassador to the United Nations, where he served until 1960. He was on the 1960 Republican ticket as the vice-presidential candidate, but the Democratic ticket headed by Kennedy won the election. He served as ambassador to South Vietnam under Kennedy, and later, under President Johnson, Lodge was ambassador to West Germany. His final position was as the US representative to the Vatican, from which he retired in 1977.
Document Analysis
Ambassador Lodge communicates one definite assertion and raises a related area of uncertainty. He believes a coup against South Vietnam president Diem should happen immediately. However, he is seeking to gain a better understanding of how the United States could help those planning the coup. This telegram makes it clear that he believes a decision has already been made, by the “Generals” and the United States to “overthrow the Diem government.” This had been the subject of many previous communiqués, including one, Deptel 268, sent on the previous day. Lodge argues that this course of action is for the best and tries to encourage the “Generals to move promptly.”
What is not clear to him is how the United States could help. In point 2, Lodge makes it clear that there is a role to play, although not in the actual fighting that might occur. He mentions some kinds of pressure that might be put on Diem, such as cutting aid, or assistance, to the generals by publically supporting them once the coup had started. However, for the generals, there is uncertainty because if the United States is willing to sacrifice an ally of the past eight years, will it stand by that ally or “run out on them?” This uncertainty probably played a role in the coup not moving forward at that time.
Lodge was in a unique position to advise President Kennedy. Historically, he was a political rival of President Kennedy. However, as the longest-serving American ambassador to the United Nations in the first seventy years of the UN's history, Lodge had developed a strong understanding of international relations and how to deal with various governments. He was able to make decisions based on what he thought was best for the United States rather than saying what Kennedy might want to hear. Thus, his statement that the “war cannot be won with the present regime” is not said to please Kennedy; it is his own analysis of the situation. This change in government is necessary, from Lodge's perspective, if the United States wants any chance of defeating the communist attempt to take over South Vietnam. On all of these points, Lodge had consulted with the military commander for American forces in Vietnam, General Paul Harkins. The one point of disagreement between the two is whether Diem should be given the option to dismiss his brother, Nhu (and his powerful wife, known as Madame Nhu), from his position as de facto commander of a special-forces military group that acted as secret police for Diem.
The containment of communism was at stake, in the eyes of the writer. Because of this, the United States was concerned about the government of South Vietnam. Diem had to be removed for there to be a chance at victory. This was the way Lodge saw the situation. The raids on the pagodas, which resulted in massive arrests of Buddhist monks and nuns, seem to have been the action that both made US officials ready to accept a coup and pushed the South Vietnamese military to the point of considering one. Although Lodge seems to acknowledge that there was a wide gap between American and South Vietnamese military leaders on the specifics of undertaking such an action, he sees that all are unified on the need for change.
Bibliography and Additional Reading
Blair, Anne E. Lodge in Vietnam: A Patriot Abroad. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995. Print.
Lodge, Henry Cabot, Jr. As It Was: An Inside View of Politics and Power in the ‘50s and ‘60s. New York: W.W. Norton & Company Inc., 1976. Print.
Miller, Edward. Misalliance: Ngo Dinh Diem, the United States, and the Fate of South Vietnam. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2013.
“Vietnam, Diem, the Buddhist Crisis.” JFK in History. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, 2015. Web. <http://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Vietnam-Diem-and-the-Buddhist-Crisis.aspx>.