Colonization of Mars

The colonization of Mars has been the subject of speculation for decades. However, in the early twenty-first century, several high-profile missions were introduced to send the first human settlers to the red planet. The harsh Martian environment would pose a significant challenge for any colonists. The planet's extreme cold, poisonous atmosphere, and excessive radiation could prove deadly to humans. The cost and logistics of interplanetary travel also make colonization a formidable undertaking. Despite such obstacles, by the end of the 2010s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) had proposed a manned mission to Mars by the 2030s or early 2040s. In addition, several private companies had unveiled detailed plans for colonization at some point during the twenty-first century.

Background

Mars is the fourth planet from the sun and the second smallest in the solar system, behind only Mercury. With a diameter of about 4,220 miles (6,791 kilometers) Mars is about half the size of Earth. At their closest point, Earth and Mars would be about 34 million miles (55 million kilometers) apart; at their most distant point, they would be about 250 million miles (402 million kilometers) apart. Gravity on Mars is about 37.5 percent of that on Earth. Its day is just slightly longer than twenty-four hours, and its year corresponds to 687 Earth days.

The soil on Mars contains large amounts of iron oxide, or rust, which also gives it its red color. Its blood-red tint prompted the ancient Romans to name the planet after the god of war. Temperatures on Mars can range from 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) to -284 degrees Fahrenheit (-140 degrees Celsius); the average temperature is -81 degrees Fahrenheit (-63 degrees Celsius). The Martian atmosphere is about one hundred times thinner than that of Earth, and it is primarily made up of poisonous carbon dioxide. Mars has no magnetic field to shield the planet from deadly radiation emitted by the sun.

Like Earth, Mars has polar ice caps, large canyons, volcanoes, and changing seasons. The extreme cold does not allow for the presence of much liquid water, but scientists have discovered frozen water at the poles and in the Martian surface. At one point in the distant past, Mars was home to large amounts of liquid water, leading some scientists to speculate if primitive forms of life originated on the planet.

Overview

The first spacecraft to successfully land on Mars was the Viking 1 in 1976. Viking 2 followed it later that year, but it would be another two decades before the next probe successfully landed on Mars. A manned mission to the red planet was first speculated about as far back as the 1950s, but the feat was technologically impossible for the time. A more realistic plan was discussed in the 1980s, but the capability to launch such a mission was considered at least three decades away.

In 2010, NASA outlined a list of goals that included sending humans to Mars by the 2030s. In 2017, the agency released a five-part plan to accomplish the feat. Under NASA's initial timeframe, the testing of rockets and a new launch system for the journey would occur from 2018 to 2025. By the early 2020s, NASA engineers were actively working on the development of several new technologies to reach this goal, including inflatable landing gear, high-tech spacesuits, and remote power systems. Furthermore, several robotic rovers and orbiters launched by NASA explored the surface of Mars, gathering important data to make human exploration of Mars a possibility. If all goes according to plan, the first astronauts would leave Earth on a two-year trip to Mars as early as the 2030s. The astronauts would travel in a tube-like spacecraft and enter orbit around the planet. The mission would not be a direct attempt at colonization. It is meant to establish a supply and operations system for future colonization efforts. The cost of the mission was estimated to range from $100 billion to $1 trillion. In 2022, NASA released detailed preliminary plans for a thirty-day mission to the surface of Mars.

In 2012, Mars One, a private corporation founded by two Dutch entrepreneurs, announced plans to establish the first human colony on Mars. The initial goal of Mars One was to begin launching the first equipment for the project by 2018; however, the considerable cost and logistics of the plan forced the company to push back its timeline. By 2017, Mars One had selected one hundred potential candidates for the mission and was in the process of narrowing the group down to forty. The company planned to launch a communications satellite to Mars by 2024, and a rover vehicle to scout potential locations by 2026. Cargo missions were scheduled to launch in 2029, and the first crew would begin its journey in 2031. The first colonists would reach Mars in 2032. They would arrive at a transit station orbiting the planet before taking a landing vehicle to the surface. Once there, the crew would begin setting up the colony and preparing for the arrival of the next crew. Each crew would help construct additional living modules for successive crews. The modules would be covered with soil to help protect against cosmic radiation. The colonists would be expected to live the rest of their lives on Mars. If a catastrophic event were to occur, there would be no hope for rescue.

Mars One planned to fund the mission through donations, private investments, and corporate sponsorships. At one point, the company hoped to broadcast the mission as a reality television show. However, despite its detailed plans, the company faced criticism for its alleged lack of awareness of a number of concerns, including financing and hardware development, and was liquidated in 2019 after going bankrupt.

In 2002, South African businessman Elon Musk founded a private aerospace company called SpaceX with a goal of eventually establishing a human colony on Mars. By 2017, Musk and his associates had detailed plans to build a "self-sustaining city" on the planet. His proposal included a fleet of powerful rockets called the Interplanetary Transit System. The goal is to have each rocket transport one hundred people to Mars. By launching thousands of rockets, Musk argued that about one million people could be living on Mars within a century. Flights could leave every twenty-six months, setting up a cargo route at the time when Earth and Mars are closest to each other.

Musk's plans also called for the colonists to change the atmosphere and temperature on Mars. Possible ways to do this include using plants to convert the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to oxygen, or melting the water in the polar icecaps. However, with no magnetic field, the newly created atmosphere may just seep out into space. Attempts to create a new atmosphere on Mars would be part of a process known as terraforming, which refers to altering the atmosphere, temperature, or surface conditions of a planet, moon, or other body to make it similar to Earth and allow for human habitation. SpaceX was attempting to develop lighter, stronger technology that could be reused on future missions to make the project more cost-effective. In the late 2010s, the cost to reach Mars was estimated to be about $10 billion per person. Musk hoped to lower that cost to about $100,000 to $200,000 per person.

A number of different groups continued to develop plans for the exploration and eventual colonization of Mars into the 2020s. Some space agencies, such as Russian space agency Roscosmos and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) space program, drew up tentative plans for manned missions to Mars but remained more focused on exploration. In the early 2020s, NASA remained committed to a human mission to Mars during the 2030s or early 2040s; as a stepping stone toward this goal, the agency planned a series of lunar missions, culminating with the Artemis 3 mission scheduled for 2025, which would land humans on the surface of the Moon.

Meanwhile, several corporations and private ventures, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing, remained interested in the concept of permanent human settlement in space. Most notably, Musk's SpaceX company, whose space shuttles began transporting US astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2021, remained nominally committed to Musk's goals of establishing human colonies on Mars within the span of a few decades. However, most experts criticized Musk's timeline, specifically his stated goal of having a million humans on Mars by 2050, as overly ambitious and unrealistic. Even so, SpaceX made significant progress on its Starship vehicle designed for Mars colonization. By 2024, the company had conducted multiple test flights, working toward its goal of a crewed mission to Mars within the next decade.

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