Gallup polls
Gallup polls represent a methodology of scientific polling initiated by George S. Gallup in the 1930s, aimed at accurately assessing public sentiment. This approach marked a significant departure from earlier, less systematic polling methods, as it emphasized the importance of selecting representative samples of the population. Gallup polls gained widespread recognition in 1936 for successfully predicting Franklin D. Roosevelt's election victory but faced criticism in 1948 when they incorrectly forecasted Harry S. Truman's defeat. In response to such setbacks, Gallup refined his polling techniques, employing random sampling and continuous polling to enhance accuracy, particularly in presidential elections during the 1950s.
Over the years, Gallup polls have become integral to political campaigns, influencing candidate nominations and public policy discussions. They have also mirrored societal changes, capturing evolving attitudes on issues such as gender equality and civil rights. Despite their utility, there is ongoing debate about the reliance on polling data by political leaders, with critics cautioning against using polls as the sole measure of success. Overall, Gallup polls continue to play a vital role in understanding public opinion and shaping political discourse.
Gallup polls
Means of surveying a particular group of people using standardized questions and conducted by the organization founded by George Gallup, Sr.
George Gallup, Sr., achieved unprecedented success during the 1950s by applying scientific methods to the polling process. The success of polls during this decade offered policy makers accurate readings of current attitudes and a historical perspective of major social trends. It assured pollsters a continuing role in the political process.
After 1900, polls had been used sporadically to assess public sentiments. Early polling consisted of unsystematic questioning of unspecified people who happened to be available. In 1935, George S. Gallup, Sr., began to employ the new approach of “scientific polling,” in which the sample of people questioned did not have to be large, but it had to be chosen to reflect the members of an entire group, including important subgroups. Gallup polls first won acclaim in 1936 by predicting President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election victory. In 1948, Gallup suffered a humiliating setback by incorrectly predicting the defeat of presidential candidate Harry S. Truman.
Political Uses
As a result of this error, Gallup modified his procedures during the 1950s. He polled preferences in presidential contests continuously until the eve of the election. Gallup no longer selected his samples by choosing a quota of cases from each subgroup but instead selected samples by a random process from the entire population.
During the 1950s, Gallup’s predictions in presidential elections were notably successful. Dwight D. Eisenhower’s approval ratings in polls—usually in the 60–70 percent range—predicted his two electoral victories. Polls during 1958–1959 anticipated the close 1960 presidential race by documenting a fluctuating 50-50 percentage split between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon. In contrast, President Harry S. Truman’s 1950–1952 approval ratings stayed in a dismal 20–30 percent range; the president judged by historians as “near great” had the poorest poll ratings of all.
During the 1950s, political leaders began, more than before, to take poll results seriously. Since then, polling has become an essential part of elections and campaigns, and public opinion polls are integral to gauging the success of an administration. Eisenhower’s 1952 selection as the Republican candidate over established Republican politicians was influenced greatly by his dramatic 70-percent approval ratings. The “man of peace” theme in Eisenhower’s 1952 campaign was introduced after poll results showed that by a majority of 52–25 percent, Americans called the Korean War a “mistake.” Senator Joseph McCarthy’s wild accusations of communist infiltration lost any power to intimidate after polls in August of 1954 showed that most Americans rated him “unfavorably.”
Reflecting Social Change
The Gallup polls also reflected some of the broader social trends of the 1950s, have been used for similar information-gathering in the decades since. For example, in the 1950s, a majority of Americans supported equal pay for women when they did the same work as men but continued to prefer such occupations as “physician and engineer” for sons and “nurse and secretary” for daughters. A modest majority supported racially desegregating schools yet stated they would not vote for an African American presidential candidate. In the late 1990s, early 2000s, and beyond, polls like Gallup (and their competitors) reflected Americans' changing attitudes towards gay marriage and abortion, and also showed a general loosening of previously strict conservative morals.
Impact
The decade’s successful use of polls assured them a continuing place in business and political life, and Gallup acquired an international reputation. Increasingly, political leaders commissioned private polls. Critics of the day charged that too many politicians were tempted to rely on favorable poll ratings as the sole criterion of their success. Gallup himself was well aware that the ultimate success of policies depended upon future consequences, not measures of current popularity. The contemporary political climate required that leaders not only reflected popular opinion but also sought to change it.
Bibliography
Bradburn, Norman M., and Seymour Sudman. Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1988.
Eisinger, Robert M. Evolution of Presidential Polling. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2002.
Gallup, George H. The Gallup Poll: 1935-1971. New York: Random House, 1972.