Sinking of Cheonan (South Korean Ship) March 2010

Summary: On March 26, 2010, a South Korean naval patrol vessel, the Cheonan, sank in the Yellow Sea near the disputed maritime border between South and North Korea, killing 46 sailors. Two months later a report by experts from the United States, Britain, Australia, and Sweden concluded the Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo, a fragment of which was recovered from the wreckage. North Korea denied any involvement in the incident. The report touched off a diplomatic crisis: South Korea's newly elected conservative government said it would cut virtually all trade with the North, deny use of South Korean sea lanes by North Korean merchant ships; ask the Security Council to impose sanctions against North Korea; and refuse to participate in the Six Party non-proliferation talks until North Korea apologized. (South Korea later backed away, insisting that North Korea show "sincerity" in future talks.") The United States condemned the attack, voiced support for the South, sought support from China in imposing economic sanctions against the North, and announced joint naval exercises with South Korea. The incident was the deadliest in a series of incidents over the previous decade near the "Northern Limit Line," the maritime border between the two halves of Korea dating to the end of the Korean conflict in 1953.

Date: About 9:30 P.M., local time, on March 26, 2010.

Place: Yellow Sea near Baengnyeong Island and close to the disputed maritime border (the "Northern Limit Line") between North and South Korea. Baengnyeong Island lies west of the North Korean coast, north of the land border between the two countries. The Northern Limit Line is a maritime line east and west of the Korean peninsula that was declared unilaterally by U.N. forces in August 1953, one month after the armistice that ended fighting in the Korean War; it was never officially recognized by North Korea.

Incident: An explosion ripped apart the South Korean ship Cheonan, a 1,200-metric ton corvette (a fast naval patrol vessel, smaller than a destroyer, used by South Korea for coastal defense and/or anti-submarine warfare), which sank. South Korea said 46 sailors died; 58 others, including the captain, were rescued. The South Korean news agency Yonhop later quoted the captain, Choi Won-il, as saying: "There was the sound of an explosion and the ship keeled to the right. We lost power and telecommunications."

South Korea raised both halves of the ship and said there were no signs of soot or explosion holes, suggesting a non-contact force had broken the ship in half.

Known or presumed perpetrator: In the days that followed the incident, speculation ranged from a Korean War-era mine to shots fired from another South Korean vessel to a torpedo -- identified as a North Korea-produced CHT-02D wake-homing torpedo produced by North Korea and launched by a North Korean ship. A week after the incident, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said the explosion could have been caused by a mine or a torpedo and that "a more likely possibility is a torpedo attack." In May 2010, two months after the attack, an international investigative team, with representatives from the United States, Australia, Britain, and Sweden, declared: "We have reached the clear conclusion that [South Korea's] Cheonan was sunk as a result of an external underwater explosion…. The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine." The report said there was "no other plausible explanation" for the sinking of the Cheonan and that fragments of a torpedo found when the Cheonan was raised were compatible with a North Korean weapon recovered several years earlier. The report also said intelligence from the United States, Britain, and Australia indicated it was likely that a North Korean submarines were operating near the area at the time of the sinking.

North Korea denounced the report as a "conspiratorial farce" and denied any responsibility for the explosion.

On April 25, 2010, South Korean's defense minister said that "a bubble jet caused by a heavy torpedo is thought to be the most likely thing to be blamed, but various other possibilities are also under review." A "bubble jet" refers to a sudden change in pressure caused by an underwater explosion that can break apart a ship. South Korean officials said they had found no signs of a contact explosion, such as soot or holes in the hull of the Cheonan, that might have been caused by a direct hit by a torpedo or mine.

Reactions.

• South Korea: On April 23, 2010, South Korea's president appeared to rule out military retaliation even if it were proved that North Korea was responsible for sinking the Cheonan. President Lee Myung-bak told reporters that "just as the investigation is being conducted with international cooperation, we'll try to cooperate with the international community in taking necessary measures when the results are out." After the report on the incident by the four-nation commission, the South Korean president said Seoul would cut virtually all trade with North Korea, would bar North Korean ships from using South Korean shipping channels, and would ask the Security Council to impose sanctions against the North. The South Korean military prepared to resume propaganda broadcasts aimed at North Korea after a suspension that lasted six years. South Korea also demanded an apology from the North for the incident. Six months later, in November 2010, South Korea subtly dropped its demand for an apology as a condition for resuming talks with North Korea, including the Six Party non-proliferation talks that had already been suspended. (See separate Background Information Summary on Six Party Talks in this database.) Instead, President Lee Myung-bak said, in an interview with the New York Times in early November 2010, that Seoul would wanted to see "sincerity in North Korea's behavior" before rejoining the talks.
• United States: Initially the United States urged restraint. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a NATO foreign ministers conference that she hoped "that there is no talk of war, there is no action or miscalculation that could provoke a response that might lead to conflict." Following publication of the investigative report in May, Clinton--during a visit to Beijing--said: "The Republic of Korea can continue to count on the full support of the United States. Our support for South Korea's defense is unequivocal." Reports said she had urged China to support Security Council sanctions against North Korea. At about the same time, a U.S. Defense Department spokesman said the United States would conduct naval exercises with South Korea "in the near future." The exercises would aim at improving the ability to detect enemy submarines and halt banned shipments of nuclear materials.
• North Korea. The government of North Korea repeatedly denied any involvement in sinking of the Cheonan and threatened retaliation, including "all out war" in response to any sanctions.
• China. Beijing, which has been North Korea's strongest ally since the days of the Korean War, initially reserved judgment on the international report implicating North Korea's navy in the sinking of the Cheonan. Chinese President President Hu Jintao did not mention North Korea in a speech welcoming an American delegation, including Clinton, after the international report was published.
• United Nations. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, said at a news conference that "there must be some measures taken," without specifying what those measures should be. He was quoted as saying: The evidence is quite compelling. There is no controversy. Therefore it is the responsibility of the international community to address this issue properly."

Context: Nearly six decades after the armistice that ended the Korean War (July 1953), tensions between the two sides have continued to ebb and flow with repeated incidents, ranging from encounters at sea to assassination attempts to tests of nuclear arms carried out by North Korea. Technically the two Koreas remained at war in 2010; no permanent peace treaty had been signed since the armistice of 1953. The United States in 2010 had about 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea.

There have been repeated incidents, and threats of renewed warfare. These incidents range from the attempted assassination of South Korea's president by agents of the North to clashes between the two nations' navies in the Yellow Sea, including:

• June 9 and June 15, 1999. On two occasions, two North Korean patrol boats opened fire on South Korean patrol ships. South Korean reports said the North Korean boats had crossed the Northern Limit Line. In the exchange, two North Korean boats were sunk; 30 North Korean sailors died and 70 were wounded. Two South Korean ships suffered slight damage.
• June 28, 2002: Two North Korean patrol boats opened fire on South Korean ships which had crossed the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea. The North Korean ships then moved north of the line, one having been damaged. According to reports, 13 North Korean sailors were killed and 25 wounded. Six South Korean sailors died and 18 were wounded. One South Korean ship was disabled.
• November 10, 2009: Ships from North and South Korea exchanged fire near the "Northern Limit Line." One North Korean ship was reported to have sustained serious damage. No casualties were reported.

After the Cheonan incident, there were at least two other maritime confrontations:

• August 9, 2010: North Korea fired artillery shells at waters near two disputed islands which are near the Northern Limit Line: Byeongryeong and Yeonpyeong, according to published reports.
• November 3, 2010: The South Korean navy fired at a North Korean fishing boat near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea; the fishing boat went back to the northern side of the line.

Strategic Implications. The Cheonan incident appeared to have several parallel strategic implications for East Asia. There was widespread published speculation that the incident may have been tied to issues surrounding the successor to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, known to be ailing and apparently eager to position his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, to succeed him. Some analysts suggested that the Cheonan incident might have been planned by the younger Kim, about whom little is known in the West, as a means of gaining credibility within the North Korean military.

At the same time, however, some analysts suggested that South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak may have taken the incident as an opportunity to try to effect a shift in the strategic relationships among China, North Korea, South Korea, the United States, and Japan. The leaders of both South and North Korea visited China in early May 2010, visits that underscored both the growing economic ties between South Korea and China, and the complex relationships between China and North Korea.

After the incident, South Korea took a hard line, suspending the flow of economic aid to North Korea and demanding that Pyongyang be punished and/or diplomatically isolated in retaliation for the alleged attack. Some analysts interpreted South Korea's reactions as an effort to drive a wedge between Beijing and its long-time ally in North Korea at a time when Seoul's economic relationship with China was growing more important to both sides.

For its part, China appeared concerned with the stability of the government in North Korea, lest an economic and political collapse of the regime on its borders result in a flood of economic refugees flowing into China, or even infighting among rival factions of the North Korean military.

The United States also appeared to react to the Cheonan incident as a potential strategic game-changer in the region. Washington immediately expressed strong support for South Korea and agreed to participate in joint naval exercises.

The Cheonan incident also complicated prospects for reviving the so-called Six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons development program, involving China, the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and North Korea. After the sinking of the Cheonan, both the United States and South Korea said the Six-Party Talks would not be resumed until a final forensic determination of how the ship had sunk. After the report blaming a North Korean torpedo for the incident, South Korea said it would not rejoin the Six Party talks until North Korea apologized for the Cheonan. Later, however, South Korea's president seemed to back away from its demand for an apology, saying South Korea wanted to see "sincerity in North Korea's behavior"before restarting the talks. China had viewed its leadership position in the Six Party Talks as an opportunity to enhance its diplomatic influence in East Asia as well as to help control nuclear proliferation in the region. To the extent that the Cheonan sinking jeopardized the Six Party Talks, the incident could have been viewed as a diplomatic setback for Beijing to the advantage of Washington at a time when South Korea was emerging as a regional economic powerhouse and North Korea appeared increasingly unstable.

Bibliography

McDonald, Mark. "South Korea Drops Its Call for Apology From North." New York Times. November 8, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/world/asia/09korea.html?scp=14&sq=north%20korea&st=cse