Global Water Security
Global water security encompasses the availability and sustainable management of freshwater resources to meet the needs of populations while addressing environmental and social challenges. As the global population continues to rise, the demand for freshwater is projected to increase significantly, particularly in regions already facing water stress, such as North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Water stress is defined as having renewable freshwater supplies fall below 1,700 cubic meters per person per year, which affects agricultural productivity, economic stability, and overall societal well-being.
Climate change exacerbates these challenges by diminishing water sources, such as glaciers and snowpacks, further straining water availability. The geopolitical implications of water scarcity are profound, as nations may resort to using water as a political tool or weapon. This dynamic raises risks of regional tensions and conflicts, particularly as historical trends of cooperation over shared water resources could shift towards competition. Additionally, inadequate water management can lead to groundwater depletion, threatening food security and economic stability.
The implications of water insecurity extend beyond national borders, with developing nations increasingly seeking assistance from technological leaders like the United States to enhance water resource management. With millions lacking access to safe drinking water, global water security is an urgent issue that requires collaborative solutions to ensure sustainable access for all. Addressing these challenges is essential not only for individual nations but for global stability and peace.
Global Water Security
Summary
In March 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued an Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) at the State Department's request. The ICA was authored by Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analysts. After a year of research, the report offered short—and long-term predictions over the next several decades. In the short term, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia were judged to likely experience significant challenges in meeting the demand for fresh water.
According to the report, while "wars over water are unlikely within the next ten years, water challenges—shortages, poor water quality, floods—will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives."
The ICA emphasizes that water shortages alone do not directly lead to state failure. Instead, the fallout from water shortages will pressure states already grappling with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Increased social and political pressure from water shortages could lead to revolution and state failure.
Lastly, the ICA highlights several opportunities for the US to assist in preventing water shortages, including water resource management in public and private sectors, trade of products with high water content, institutional capacities to treat water and encourage efficient water use, and disseminating satellite and other remote sensing data and hydrological modeling tools.
In-Depth Overview
The fundamental issue concerning water security is supply and demand. By 2040, the global supply of fresh water was predicted only to be able to keep pace with demand if at-risk countries adopt more effective water management techniques. Population increases are the main driver for the projected demand increase—the global population in the early 2020s increased exponentially.
The phrase "water stress" describes regions with renewable freshwater supplies below 1,700 cubic meters per person per year. The western United States, northern and southern Africa, the Middle East, Australia, and parts of south Asia and China began experiencing water stress in the early twenty-first century. The ICA estimated that by 2025, "water stress will increase significantly in many locations worldwide, including North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia." Climate change was cited as a primary culprit responsible for glacier reduction and reduced snowpacks.
Particularly striking about this ICA is that it only forecasted increased cooperation between states through 2022. "Historically, water tensions have led to more water-sharing agreements than violent conflicts." However, as resources dwindle, the ICA expected competition to trump cooperation—ultimately bucking historical trends. Ultimately, the result is a "water-stressed" nation facing social and political pressure from within and intense, direct regional competition. By 2022, state-on-state conflict violent conflict was not considered an unreasonable conclusion. Though 2022 did not see intense disputes over water in the US, the global crisis continued to thrive.
Key Takeaways
Water as Leverage, a Weapon, and a Target
The ICA assessed that water would likely be used as political leverage between regional competitors and a downstream weapon by the early 2020s.
Regarding political leverage, countries were predicted to vigorously fight for their interests in international forums to protect access to water, including "pressuring investors, nongovernmental organizations, and donor countries to support or halt water infrastructure projects. States will also use their inherent ability to construct and support major water projects to obtain regional influence."
The ICA also expected upstream regional actors to use water as a weapon by impeding or obstructing the water flow to downstream neighbors. This could occur because the upstream nation needs the water immediately, perceives it will need it in the future, or wishes to inflict reprisal on a regional competitor for a separate, indirectif not unrelatedconflict.
As the water's intrinsic value increases, its physical infrastructure becomes more likely to become a target for "extremists, terrorists, and rogue states." The ICA notes that in times of water shortages, even a minimally successful attack would cause panic, perhaps provoking a severe response from local authorities.
Impact on Agriculture
Groundwater depletion occurs in some areas because of climate change and poor water management. This mismanagement of resources is likely to impact global food markets. According to the ICA:
"Numerous countries have over-pumped their groundwater to satisfy growing food demand. Depleted and degraded groundwater can threaten food security and thereby risk social disruption. When water available for agriculture is insufficient, agricultural workers retain their jobs, and more crops are grown. As a result, there is a strong correlation between water available for agriculture and national GDP."
Northern India is noted as one of these regions—water is being depleted there faster than any other comparable region in the world. While not mentioned in the report, it is worth noting that Coca-Cola has several bottling plants in Northern India. Some studies have shown a correlation between the arrival of the bottling plants and the reduction in local groundwater.
Fifteen percent of all food production in India is based on unsustainable groundwater use. Given India's population, fifteen percent is a significant number.
US Implications
The United States will likely be asked to consult on many water preservation initiatives and support water planning initiatives with relevant data. Developing nations need more resources to collect relevant data fast enough. In most cases, the US already has years of satellite data to draw.
"The developing world will probably expect the United States, as a leader in technology, to continue development of hydrological models and remote environmental monitoring, as well as to disseminate this data and facilitate the integration of other terrestrial resource management data on a global scale."
The ICA noted that US expertise and technology will be sought after. It states that other developed nations will ramp up their efforts to compete in the newly created market.
A study noted that in 2024 up to 2 billion people around the globe lacked access to safe drinking water. Because of this situation, an estimated 700 million people were at risk of displacement by the end of the decade. This condition could be the potential harbinger of famine, financial crises, and terrorism. Water security was, therefore, not an issue confined to specific regions, peoples, or countries. Several developed countries, such as Australia and Spain, were now under water stress. Water security had become an issue that transcended the well-being of all nations and global institutions. In the 2020s, solutions needed to be developed to ensure the upgrade of distribution systems and the reduction of waste. Investments were advocated for areas such as desalination and better governance of existing water sources.
Bibliography
"Global Water Security." Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2 Feb. 2012, www.dni.gov/files/documents/Special Report‗ICA Global Water Security.pdf Accessed Sept. 28, 2023.
“Global Water Security: Lessons Learnt and Long-Term Implications." World Water Council, 2018, link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-10-7913-9. Accessed 22 Aug. 2024.
Jones J. Anthony, et al. "Threats to Global Water Security." Springer, 2009, link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5. Accessed 22 Aug. 2024.
Omolere, Mitota P. "Global Water Crisis: Why the World Urgently Needs Water-Wise Solutions." Earth.org, 12 Mar. 2024, earth.org/global-water-crisis-why-the-world-urgently-needs-water-wise-solutions/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2024.