The Global 2000 Report
The Global 2000 Report, published in 1980, marked a significant effort by the U.S. government to utilize computer modeling in assessing the environmental impacts of human activities. In the wake of earlier influential works that warned about potential global collapse due to unchecked growth and resource consumption, this report aimed to provide a clearer understanding of future challenges. It projected a significant increase in global population and food consumption by the year 2000, highlighting the need for increased agricultural inputs and the alarming rise in the number of malnourished individuals worldwide.
Despite its ambitious approach, the report faced criticism for its methodology, as it did not employ a unified model, leading to inconsistencies in predictions. While some findings were starkly pessimistic, others viewed them as overly optimistic, sparking debate about the report's accuracy. Ultimately, it underscored the necessity for international cooperation to address impending environmental crises and initiated discussions around sustainable practices. The legacy of The Global 2000 Report continues to resonate, as it has influenced ongoing dialogues about environmental stewardship and the collective responsibility of nations in addressing global challenges.
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The Global 2000 Report
IDENTIFICATION: Report on the U.S. government’s first attempt to use computer modeling to analyze the environmental impacts of global human activities
DATE: Published in 1980
The Global 2000 Report, although criticized as both too pessimistic and too optimistic, helped to raise awareness of the impacts that the activities of human beings have on the worldwide environment and the need to establish plans aimed at minimizing negative environmental impacts.
As the use of computers became increasingly widespread in the early 1970’s, the world was shocked by the publication of two books that reported on computer models that projected the eventual collapse of the world system if growth and resource consumption were not curtailed: The Limits to Growth (1972), by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III; and Mankind at the Turning Point (1974), by Mihajlo Mesarović and Eduard Pestel. The U.S. government was unprepared for the conclusions presented in these books, and in 1977 President Jimmy Carter focused the attention of the federal government on producing a computer model to serve as a planning tool for human activity. The simulation was completed in 1979, and the results were published in The Global 2000 Report, by the Council on Environmental Quality.
The Global 2000 Report concluded that, given the trends of the time, the world’s population would increase by 55 percent and reach 6.35 billion in the year 2000 and that the number of people being fed on 1 hectare (2.5 acres) of land would increase from 2.6 in 1970 to 4 by 2000, requiring the increased use of biocides, fertilizers, and irrigation. The report also predicted that between 1970 and 2000, per capita consumption of food would increase by 15 percent, but the increase would be confined to the well-fed, industrialized nations. Finally, the report indicated that the number of malnourished people in the world would increase from 500 million in 1970 to 1.3 billion in 2000. The report also stated that if the predicted changes were to be avoided, change would be required, and “the needed changes go far beyond the capability and responsibility of this or any other single nation. An era of unprecedented cooperation and commitment is essential.”
A number of serious flaws existed in the computer modeling that provided the data for The Global 2000 Report. Unlike the simulations developed for The Limits to Growth and Mankind at the Turning Point, The Global 2000 Report was not a single unified model. Individual government agencies produced data from their own simulations, and the models used were not combined into an integrated whole. As a result, some agencies assumed no interruptions in flows of necessary goods and services, whereas the agencies overseeing those goods and services were predicting interruptions. In addition, while other groups were using their computer models to extend predictions to the year 2100, the government’s simulation stopped at the year 2000, severely limiting the usefulness and longevity of the results. Nevertheless, the projections that resulted from the U.S. simulation and reported in The Global 2000 Report were not significantly different from what other groups were reporting.
Although the report’s projections were very pessimistic, many observers believed they were actually too optimistic, and a revised version of The Global 2000 Report was issued in 1988. In 1992, then-US Senator Al Gore echoed the difficulties noted in The Global 2000 Report when he said in his book Earth in the Balance, “We find it difficult to imagine a realistic basis for hope that the can be saved, not only because we still lack widespread agreement on the need for this task, but also because we have never worked together globally on any problem even approaching this one in degree of difficulty.”
Bibliography
Buell, Frederick. From Apocalypse to Way of Life: Environmental Crisis in the American Century. New York: Routledge, 2004.
Chasek, Pamela S., and David L. Downie. Global Environmental Politics. 8th ed. Routledge, 2021.
Davis, David Howard. “The Golden Age of Statistics: Planning as Prediction.” In Ignoring the Apocalypse: Why Planning to Prevent Environmental Catastrophe Goes Astray. Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2007.
Speth, James Gustave. “The Global 2000 Report and Its Aftermath.” Oxford Academics, 2008, doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195309454.003.0004. Accessed 17 July 2024.