United States presidential election of 2016

The 2016 US presidential election, which took place on November 8, 2016, resulted in Republican candidate Donald Trump becoming the forty-fifth president of the United States. His running mate was Indiana governor Mike Pence. Considered by many analysts to be a significant underdog in the presidential race, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in electoral votes, despite losing in the popular vote. The election followed many months of intense political campaigning in the United States, as well as controversies and conflicts relating to the candidates. While Clinton was the first woman to become the presidential nominee of a major party, Trump became the oldest and wealthiest person to become president, and the first president to take office with no prior political or military experience. Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017.

Background

The presidential election of 2016 was heavily influenced by developments in the previous years, both in politics and society. These developments led some voters to believe that the United States was on generally the right course to a just and prosperous future. Other voters disagreed, believing that the country was quickly losing the strength and focus that had made it the world's top superpower. Many felt that the election of 2016 would decide which view would prevail.

From 2009 to 2017, President Barack Obama served two terms in the presidency. During this time, he made history for many reasons, including being the first African American to serve in that office. He championed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare. Supporters felt this program would ease the high costs of health care for many people who struggled to afford it. Critics believed it was an ineffective program that brought too much government interference into private sectors. Likewise, Obama's attempts to use economic stimulus packages to reinvigorate the economy after a lengthy and punishing recession met with deeply mixed results. Critics pointed out that unemployment remained a major problem and the federal budget continued to rise alarmingly.

Other controversial issues arose in foreign policy. The rise of the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) brought new dangers in violent fundamentalism and terrorism. US armed forces were reactivated in parts of the Middle East. Other troubles were developing domestically. Racial protests, riots, and violence erupted in several cities following instances of police shootings with possible racial motivations. Other acts of violence, including mass shootings, occurred in many towns and cities. Meanwhile, legislators argued over how to react, further deepening already vast political divisions. The starkest divide was deep partisanship between the two major political parties, the generally conservative Republicans and the generally liberal Democrats, but significant divisions appeared within these groups as well.

Overview

The 2016 presidential election would prove crucial to determining the future of the nation. In the lead-up to the election, Democrats, Republicans, and several smaller parties began producing and evaluating potential candidates.

For the Democratic Party, the foremost candidate was Clinton. By 2014, even before Clinton had declared her intention to run for president, many commentators and Democratic leaders were already forecasting her route to the campaign trail. Clinton was an extensively experienced politician, having served as a senator and secretary of state. She also had a unique perspective on the presidency after having served as First Lady during the presidency of her husband, President Bill Clinton. Many supporters felt Hillary Clinton would be an ideal successor to Obama, in part because she would break more traditional barriers by becoming the first female president.

Senator Clinton faced a serious race from Democratic challenger Senator Bernie Sanders (a former independent) in the primary campaign, exposing a significant division between supporters of the traditional structure of the Democratic Party and Sanders's more progressive, populist wing. Sanders won popularity for his stance against Wall Street and major corporate interests, criticizing Clinton's alleged ties to those groups and her support of trade policies that he argued had hurt the American working class. Clinton ultimately won her party's nomination by a significant margin, but struggled to shake off suggestions that Democratic Party organizers and the mass media unfairly favored her over Sanders.

For the Republicans, the prospects were not nearly as clear at the primary stage. The party was divided by its support of a large group of contenders. These included former Florida governor Jeb Bush, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Ohio governor John Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Another candidate, businessperson and television personality Trump, entered the race after years of considering a presidential run. Although few considered Trump a serious contender when he threw his hat into the ring, he soon made headlines with his striking claims about the country's economy, leadership, and foreign policies. He vowed to "make America great again" and gained many supporters through his willingness to speak plainly and voice opinions construed as politically incorrect. Trump outlined his intentions to severely restrict immigration, craft new trade deals with other nations, and find a way to quickly defeat ISIS and other terrorist organizations.

In the primary elections, Senator Clinton, with her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, won the Democratic nomination. Trump, with running mate Indiana governor Mike Pence, won the Republican nomination. The latter choice surprised many. Although party members traditionally give support to their candidates, many prominent Republicans sought to distance themselves from Trump. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and others offered little or no support to the candidate, believing him the wrong choice. Public vote tallies suggested otherwise, though, with many Republican voters rallying behind Trump's strong conservative stances and lofty pro-American claims.

The race between Clinton and Trump was unlike any other election in American history. Clinton was the first woman to be a major-party nominee for president, and if she had won, she would have become the first female president. She would also have been the first spouse of a former president to become president. Trump had his own list of unprecedented qualities. If elected, he would be the oldest and wealthiest person ever to attain the presidency. Even more importantly, he would be the first president without any formal prior experience in politics or the military. Trump supporters viewed his outsider status as a benefit in that Trump was not a career politician, but rather a businessperson.

Meanwhile, both candidates faced a great deal of controversy. Clinton was mainly criticized for having used a private email server for sensitive government correspondence, which damaged her credibility among many voters. Trump was at the center of numerous controversies, largely based on his outspoken nature and negative opinions of many foreigners and women. Many voters remained concerned that he refused to release his tax returns. The campaign was marked with bitterness and conflicts between the candidates.

Although most polls and pundits believed Clinton would easily succeed in the election, Trump and Pence ultimately won on November 8, 2016. Clinton won the popular vote by a significant margin, but Trump won most of the needed votes in the Electoral College, including from several states that had formerly backed Obama.

In January 2017, Trump took office as the forty-fifth president of the United States. His election marked one of the most striking political upsets in American history as well as a time of great change for the country. Much debate developed regarding how and why most predictions had been so far off the mark, and various efforts were made to attempt to understand the forces that led to the surprising outcome. A good amount of postelection discussion revolved around the Electoral College system; while Trump was not the first candidate to win the presidency without winning the popular vote, the increased political divide that had marked the election and persisted after the result led analysts and politicians to further argue over how representative or democratic the institution is as the country has grown and the population and its distribution have changed. Additionally, experts debated the effectiveness of exit polls, with some arguing that they are too limited and geared toward news organizations.

Russian Interference in the 2016 United States Elections

As the politically divided country began adjusting to Trump's presidency, allegations arose of attempted election interference by Russian agents. In December 2016, even before Trump took office, it was revealed through an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Russia not only intervened in the election, but actively worked to favor Trump's candidacy and hurt Clinton's, rather than generally trying to destroy public confidence in the electoral process. Official investigations commenced in both houses of Congress in January of 2017. The same month, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), representing the full US intelligence community, issued a statement concluding that Russia indeed interfered in the election and favored Trump.

Before and after taking office, Trump dismissed the idea that Russia had influenced the election in any way. He also denied speculation that he and members of his campaign team and administration were under investigation for potential links to Russia. However, as various investigations by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the House Intelligence Committee, and the Senate Intelligence Committee were underway, the media reported many documented links between Trump associates and the Russian government or intelligence agencies. Among the figures drawing particular attention were Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort, his supporter and strategist Robert Stone, and his adviser Carter Page. The investigations also suggested that Russian hackers were responsible for providing the whistleblowing site WikiLeaks with emails that damaged Clinton and other Democrats.

The investigations into Russian interference contributed to intense public speculation into the extent of the operation and possible collusion by Trump supporters. It also added to what was widely seen as disorganization within the Trump administration. Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn, was forced to resign after just over three weeks in office due to the revelation that he lied to Vice President Pence about his dealings with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. In April 2017 an investigation into Flynn's relations with foreign governments was launched. Meanwhile, Trump's attorney general, Jeff Sessions, stated under oath in his confirmation hearing that he had had no contact with Russian interests while working as part of Trump's campaign team. However, in March 2017 it came to light that he had in fact met with Kislyak multiple times. While claiming the meetings were normal and had simply slipped his mind, Sessions recused himself from further government investigations of Russian involvement.

Then, in early May 2017, Trump dismissed FBI director David Comey. Comey soon alleged that Trump had pressured him to drop aspects of the Russian investigations, including possible charges against Flynn. Trump's own informal comments also contributed to widespread belief that his dismissal of Comey was related to the investigations, although he also gave other, conflicting reasons for the move. Later in May, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein bowed to significant public pressure and appointed a Special Counsel to direct the overarching investigation into Russian electoral interference and any related issues. Former FBI director Robert Mueller was chosen to fill that position. Among the subjects reportedly of interest to Mueller were Russian interference itself in any form, possible collusion between Russian agents and Trump associates, potential obstruction of justice by the Trump administration, and any financial ties to Russia of Trump himself, his business organization, his family, and his associates.

In July 2017, the media published reports that Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. held a meeting in June 2016 with a woman linked to the Russian government on the understanding that she would provide information against Clinton. Trump Jr. first denied the meeting took place, then claimed it was simply to discuss international adoption policies, and finally admitted it was intended to provide opposition research but claimed no such information was given. The incident also involved Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who denied any collusion.

Meanwhile, the Russian government denied any role in influencing US elections. However, Russian president Vladimir Putin did make comments suggesting that the notorious hacks during the 2016 presidential campaign may well have been carried out by Russians motivated by patriotism. Despite Trump's comments in support of Putin while on the campaign trail and in office, as president he signed a bill limiting his ability to loosen sanctions against Russia.

In October 2017, the heads of the Senate Intelligence Committee announced that they endorsed the earlier findings of the US intelligence community that Russia indeed attempted to interfere with the 2016 election. The committee also warned that Russian interference was ongoing and would likely be in play during subsequent elections as well. The announcement followed a growing body of evidence into how and to what extent the Russian influence operation occurred. Notably, it was increasingly clear that the creation of fake social media accounts, used to create and propagate false and misleading news articles and also to troll social media sites and comments pages, had been widespread. Social media companies such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter faced criticism for their initial lack of response to fake content and its damaging influences on public opinion.

By December 2017, Flynn had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his discussions with Kislyak. Meanwhile, in February 2018, as thirteen Russians accused of interference in the election were indicted based on Mueller's investigation, Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee released a memo criticizing the FBI's investigation as biased and claiming abuse of surveillance authority; Democrats soon issued a rebuttal memo. After the House Intelligence Committee ended its investigation in March without evidence of Trump campaign collusion, twelve Russian intelligence officers were indicted on charges of election interference as part of Mueller's investigation in July. In August, Manafort was convicted on eight counts, largely of fraud, and Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, after pleading guilty to eight counts that included fraud and campaign finance violations, agreed to cooperate with Mueller's investigation.

Mueller ended his investigation in late March 2019. After his report was submitted to Attorney General William Barr, a redacted version detailing Russian interference in the election but inconclusive on the question of obstruction of justice was released in April.

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