Eastern Europe's greenhouse gas emissions

Historical and Political Context

Prior to the twentieth century, most of Eastern Europe, with the exception of Poland, was part of the Austro-Hungarian or Ottoman (Turkish) Empire. Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia gained their independence from the Ottoman Empire during the nineteenth century. Following the defeat of Austria-Hungary during World War I (1914–1918), the Austro-Hungarian Empire was broken into several countries by the victors. Some of the resulting nations, such as Austria itself and Hungary, are defined by fairly natural and stable cultural and geographic boundaries. The Slavic portions of the empire were grouped into two collective countries, Czechoslovakia (reflecting its Czech and Slovak ethnicity) and Yugoslavia (“land of the southern Slavs,” from the Slavic root yug, meaning “south”). Neither of these two entities remained intact.

A further legacy of imperial rule in Eastern Europe is that there are many cultural minorities living in enclaves surrounded by other ethnic groups. When these regions were ruled from a distant imperial capital, an ethnic patchwork made little difference. However, when the empires dissolved, many ethnic groups found themselves in countries ruled by hostile groups, or outside their ethnic homelands. In Czechoslovakia, ethnic differences between Czechs in the west and Slovaks in the east led to peaceful division, but in the former Yugoslavia, ethnic tensions erupted in civil war. The tendency of countries in the Balkan region (the portion of Eastern Europe between the Adriatic and Black Seas) to fragment has been noted for a long time and has given rise to the term “Balkanization.”

All the Eastern European countries were either allied with or occupied by Nazi Germany during World War II. The Soviet counterattack led to Soviet military occupation of most of Eastern Europe. Yugoslavia and Albania expelled German forces on their own and were not occupied, but installed their own communist regimes. By 1948, communist governments had been established in all Eastern European countries. Communism was an attempt to implement the political and economic theories of Karl Marx. Under communism, the state owned all means of industrial production, though in practice varying degrees of legal and extralegal private enterprise existed as well. As an economic system, communism proved to be inefficient, since there were few incentives for efficiency. Moreover, there were no adequate means of accurately determining market needs or setting appropriate prices. Ultimately, however, the most destructive feature of communism was its stifling of dissent, which served to conceal corruption and poor environmental practices. More important, the suppression of criticism prevented communist governments from knowing how urgently reform was needed until it was too late.

Since most of the Eastern European governments were highly subservient to the Soviet Union, they were commonly called “satellites.” In 1955, all the countries of Eastern Europe except Yugoslavia joined the Soviet Union in a military alliance commonly called the Warsaw Pact. Albania later left the alliance as well. An attempt by Hungary to overthrow its communist government was crushed by Soviet invasion in 1956, and Czechoslovakia was occupied by the Soviet Union in 1968, when reforms by the Czech government were seen as threatening. Nevertheless, countries such as Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary tried to liberalize their economies within the limits set by Soviet tolerance. Hungary, in particular, instituted economic policies that accommodated a great deal of capitalism. The Cold War—the name given to the period of tension between the United States and the Soviet Union—ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Over the next few years, communist governments were dissolved in all the countries of Eastern Europe.

Impact of Eastern European Policies on Climate Change

Because Eastern Europe was economically and militarily dominated for decades by the Soviet Union, its policies during the Cold War were largely dictated by the Soviet Union. The economic emphasis in the years after World War II ended (in 1945) was on reconstruction, followed by an emphasis on heavy industry. With repression of dissent and little opportunity for public participation in government, environmental issues received little attention; greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began to be seen as an important issue only about the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, in 1991. Since 1991, the countries of Eastern Europe have tended to adopt Western European practices and policies.

In 1997, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria applied for admission to the European Union. All except Romania and Bulgaria were admitted in 2004. Romania and Bulgaria were admitted in 2007. Macedonia and Croatia have applied for admission. All Eastern European countries, except Kosovo, have ratified or accepted the Kyoto Protocol and the succeeding Paris Agreement.

Eastern European Nations as GHG Emitters

The Kyoto Protocol calls for signatories to reduce their GHG emissions relative to 1990 emissions—that is, relative to levels before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The economic turmoil following the breakup of the Soviet Union caused all countries of the former Soviet Union and the countries of Eastern Europe to suffer serious economic declines. The former Yugoslavia, though not a Soviet satellite, nevertheless suffered its own breakup in the 1990s and also experienced serious economic decline. As a result, despite having a great deal of inefficient and antiquated infrastructure, the nations of Eastern Europe are well below their Kyoto emissions targets. Their total emissions, roughly the equivalent of a billion tons of carbon dioxide, are approximately a third lower than their targets, which are about 1.3 billion tons. The economic cloud over Eastern Europe has its silver lining: Eastern European countries have large emissions allowances that can be traded, as well as a substantial margin for growth.

Summary and Foresight

Eastern Europe is characterized by several themes. First is the legacy of domination by theSoviet Union: inefficiency, corruption, and in some areas organized crime. Inexperience with market economies has led to conditions such as severe inflation in Bulgaria in 1997 and the collapse of the Albanian economy through pyramid investment schemes that same year. Transparency International, which publishes a Corruption Perceptions Index based on a variety of reports by business, government, and human rights groups, gave Slovenia the highest (least corrupt) ranking, at number 26 of 180 countries surveyed in 2008—comparable to some Western European countries. Several other Eastern European countries had much lower ratings. Nevertheless, all Eastern European countries had substantially less corruption than Russia, which ranked 147th.

Unresolved ethnic tensions continue to be important in Eastern Europe. Ethnic Albanians are split between Albania itself and the neighboring region of Kosovo in former Yugoslavia. Kosovo, in turn, contains Serbian enclaves that object to separation from Serbia. There is a significant Hungarian population in northern Serbia and southern Slovakia. The independent country of Moldova is a former slice of Romania annexed by the Soviet Union. Greece objects to the name Macedonia out of concern that it might serve to justify claims on territory in Greece that is also called Macedonia. As a result, the nation of Macedonia is officially called by the cumbersome title Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

Some Eastern European countries, especially those that had democratic and capitalist traditions before Soviet domination, have successfully resumed their previous courses. Considering the repressive governments of the Cold War era, the countries of Eastern Europe have made remarkable progress toward democratization. The Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Hungary are all rated 1 for political and civil liberty by Freedom House, the highest rating. Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania are rated 2, that is, highly free but with some restrictions. Albania and the countries of former Yugoslavia are mostly rated 3 in each area, that is, partly free. The lower ratings in these countries stem from weak democratic traditions and the aftereffects of strife during the breakup of Yugoslavia. In contrast, Russia in 2009 rated 6 in political freedom and 5 in civil liberties.

All the Eastern European countries, except disputed Kosovo, have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol. They are less developed than the countries of Western Europe, and as they seek to grow economically they will face the interlocking problems of meeting increased consumer demand while simultaneously attempting to replace inefficient infrastructure and reform environmental safeguards. However, like Russia, the comparatively low level of industry in Eastern Europe, plus the drop in productivity during the transition from communist to capitalist economies, gives these countries a significant buffer zone that will enable them to grow but still remain within their Kyoto targets. Eastern Europe is about one-third below its Kyoto emissions target. Also, replacement of aging and obsolete infrastructure will enable the nations of Eastern Europe to install more environmentally friendly infrastructures rather than having to grapple with modifications of existing ones. Finally, membership in the European Union gives the member countries of Eastern Europe access to funding for development.

Key Facts

• Population: 120,154,616 (2008-2009 estimates)
• Countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the former Yugoslavia (now consisting of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia)
• Area: 1,166,322 square kilometers
• Gross domestic product (GDP): $1.919 trillion (purchasing power parity, 2008-2009 estimates; several countries in the former Yugoslavia have large informal economies up to 50 percent as large as their official economies)
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e): 955.6 in 2006 (excluding former Yugoslav nations)
• Kyoto Protocol status: Accepted or ratified by Czech Republic (2001), Hungary (2001), Romania (2001), Bulgaria (2002), Poland (2002), Slovakia (2002), Slovenia (2002), Albania (2005), Bosnia-Herzegovina (2007), Croatia (2007), Macedonia (2005), Montenegro (2007), and Serbia (2007); not signed by Kosovo as of 2018

Bibliography

Bideleux, Robert, and Ian Jeffries. A History of Eastern Europe: Crisis and Change. New York: Routledge, 2007.

Douma, W. Th., L. Massai, and M. Montini, eds. The Kyoto Protocol and Beyond: Legal and Policy Challenges of Climate Change. West Nyack, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Regional Forum on Industrial Cooperation and Partnership in Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States. [Vienna]: Author, [2006].