Kenya Presidential Elections 2007

Summary: A fierce dispute over the outcome of Kenya's presidential election in December 2007 led to rioting and unrest, unsettling what had been one of Africa's most stable countries. Although incumbent president Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the December 27, 2007, election, there was evidence of widespread voting irregularities; international observers called the voting "flawed." After the results were announced Kenya erupted in violence fueled by tribal tensions between Kikuyus (who support Kibaki, himself a Kikuyu) and Kalenjins (who support opposition leader Raila Odinga, a Luo). Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan mediated talks between the two rivals that eventually ended with a power-sharing agreement on February 29, 2008, which calls for Kibaki to serve as president and for his rival, Odinga, to serve as prime minister. It took another six weeks of political haggling to agree on a cabinet that was notable for its size--94 ministers, or almost one out of every two members of parliament. The post-election rioting resulted in more than 1,000 deaths and displacement of 250,000 people, largely along tribal lines.

Kenyans cast ballots in a presidential election on December 27, 2007. After the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, was declared the winner, the outcome was disputed amid widespread reports of voting irregularities. The dispute quickly degenerated into rioting in which over 1,000 people, including two opposition members of parliament, died and about a quarter-million people were displaced from their homes.

The election controversy involved two individuals and their respective political parties.

Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, and his Party of National Unity.

Raila Odinga, Kibaki's main challenger in the elections, and his Orange Democratic Movement, the main opposition party in Kenya.

After weeks of impasse accompanied by widespread rioting, the two rivals agreed on February 29, 2008, to a compromise in which Kibaki would serve as president and Odinga as prime minister--a newly created post--with their respective parties splitting cabinet posts.

It was not until April 18, 2008, that Odinga took the oath of office. This came after six weeks of haggling with Kibaki over which cabinet posts would go to which party. In the end, the cabinet numbered 94 ministers, a record that includes almost half the 210 members parliament. Kibaki's party kept the most power ministries--for example, finance and foreign affairs-- although Odinga's party also got a share of power, such as the ministries of agriculture and of local government. Despite the expansion and division of the cabinet, the agreement did not appear to represent a fundamental setting aside of differences so much as a decision to bring the political squabbling to an end in light of a new outbreak of rioting. A spokesman for Odinga was quoted as saying that a fresh round of riots had "really focused our minds on how fragile things were" and spurred Odinga and President Kibaki to finalize the list of ministers.

Tribal loyalties played an important role in the unrest. Before the elections Kenya had long taken pride in its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in Africa. This election ignited simmering tribal rivalries under the guise of a political dispute. Members of the Kikiyu tribe, of which Kibaki is a member, in particular were targets of violence. The Kikuyus have long dominated Kenyan society and politics, earning them the resentment of Kenya's other tribes. Much of the violence was blamed on members of the Kalenjin tribe, who support Odinga (who is himself a member of the Luo tribe).

Other key figures include:

• John Kufuor, head of the African Union and president of Ghana, who spent two days in Kenya trying to broker an agreement between Kibaki and Odinga.
• Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, who mediated the political settlement.

Impact: Violence following the elections caused over 1,000 deaths, including two opposition members of parliament, David Were and David Kimutai Too. In addition, about 250,000 Kenyans were displaced from their homes. As violence continued, resulting in more refugees, the crisis began to spill over into neighboring Uganda and Rwanda.

At stake was Kenya's reputation as a "model democracy" and a "beacon of stability" in an otherwise unstable region. Kibaki has played to concerns about Kenya's reputation, claiming that his prompt swearing-in and cabinet appointments were done in an effort to restore stability as quickly as possible.

The election crisis had an immediate impact on Kenya's economy, costing over $1 billion according to some estimates. The widespread violence was accompanied by looting and vandalism, and the flow of goods into, out of, and across the country was impeded by road blockages.

Background: Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki was elected to his first term in December 2002, winning a landslide victory. During his campaign he promised to restore Kenya's economy and to fight corruption. He made good on his economic promises: Kenya's economic growth reached 6% in 2006 (compared with growth of 0.6% when Kibaki took office). On the corruption issue, however, Kibaki was less successful. Several members of his government were implicated in an alleged scandal involving public funds.

Kibaki faced a significant political challenge in 2005, when he proposed a new constitution. After several rather tumultuous years in Kenyan politics, Odinga-- who had been a cabinet minister in Kibaki's government before the two had a falling-out--established himself as a national political figure by organizing the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to oppose the proposed new constitution. The ODM carried out a vigorous campaign, and the constitution was defeated in a 2005 referendum. The ODM evolved into Kenya's main opposition party, with Odinga as its leader. In September 2007 he was chosen as ODM's candidate for president to oppose Kibaki in the December 2007 elections. Opinion polls leading up to the elections showed Odinga ahead of Kibaki.

Event: Kenya's presidential elections were held on December 27, 2007; the two main candidates were Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent, and Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The elections were marked by irregularities and widespread evidence of vote rigging. When the count was complete, the Electoral Commission of Kenya declared Kibaki the winner, with a margin of about 230,000 votes out of about 10 million votes cast. Kibaki was sworn in to his second term as president immediately after the results were announced.

This led to the outbreak of rioting and violence throughout Kenya. Raila Odinga, the ODM leader, rejected the election results and called for a recount.

On January 7, 2008, Kibaki invited Odinga to talks, scheduled for January 11. Initially Odinga accepted the invitation and called off protest rallies scheduled for the next day. But on the day the talks were scheduled to begin, Kibaki made 17 cabinet appointments, filling the most important posts with his friends and political allies. No members of the opposition were appointed to the cabinet. Kibaki claimed he made the appointments in order to keep the country running and provide a semblance of stability. An additional motive may have been to make his election seem to be a fait accompli that could not be challenged, in keeping with a tradition in Kenyan politics to simply "wait out" political firestorms.

The cabinet appointments sparked a fresh round of rioting. Nevertheless, Odinga announced that he and the ODM would not attend the talks unless international mediators were present, a condition which Kibaki rejected. Explaining that they felt Kibaki was not the legitimate president and therefore should not be recognized, the ODM declared that without international mediators, the talks would be a "sideshow."

Moments after the cabinet appointments were announced, John Kufuor, head of the African Union and president of Ghana, arrived for a two-day effort to broker an agreement between Kibaki and Odinga. His arrival was welcomed by the public. However, he was careful to limit expectations, describing himself as a "facilitator" rather than a mediator and cautioning that the best he hoped for was to start a dialogue between Kibaki and Odinga. After two days of Kufuor shuttling back and forth between Kibaki and Odinga, there was still no progress.

Joining the chorus of international voices appealing for a resolution to the situation in Kenya, the World Bank offered a plan for a transition government to be put into place while an investigation into the election results was carried out. However, Kibaki rejected this idea and refused to sign the agreement.

On January 10, 2008, former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan was named as the new mediator for talks between Kibaki's government and Odinga's ODM. Annan was to head a panel that includes Graça Machel (human rights activist and wife of former South African president Nelson Mandela) and Benjamin Mkapa (former president of Tanzania). On January 15, 2008, the new Kenyan parliament had its first meeting. The ODM holds 99 of the 210 seats; Kibaki's PNU holds 43. After three hours spent arguing about procedures, ODM member Kenneth Marende was elected speaker of the parliament, defeating a supporter of Kibaki.

Annan arrived on January 22, 2008, and began talks with Kibaki and Odinga two days later, even as violence and rioting continued. The opposition ODM held rallies in 25 cities and towns, while also calling on the international community to impose economic sanctions to punish Kibaki's government. The African Union, the European Union, and the United States all denounced the violence, and pressed the two sides to arrive at a solution quickly.

Kibaki's tribe, the Kikuyu, were particular targets of violence, stemming in part from their support for Kibaki and in part from long-held resentments based on the tribe's control of politics, society and economy. Members of the Luo tribe (of which Odinga is a member) and the Kalenjin tribe (who support Odinga) were largely blamed for attacking the Kikuyu. Kibaki and his supporters have accused the ODM of orchestrating a campaign of ethnic cleansing and threatened to arrest and imprison ODM leaders. The ODM countered that the government is supporting organized violence carried out by gangs.

Political negotiations mediated by Annan proved difficult. Odinga demanded that new elections be held; Kibaki refused. He also initially rejected any power-sharing agreement.

The fatal shooting on January 29, 2008, of ODM member of parliament Mugabe Were sparked a fresh round of riots. A second ODM member of parliament, David Kimutai Too, was shot to death on January 31, 2008. The government said Too was shot by a police officer who believed his girlfriend was having an affair with Too. The ODM rejected this story, alleging that the killing was another political assassination.

On February 1, 2008, Annan announced that representatives of Kibaki and Odinga had agreed on framework for talks aimed at ending violence within two weeks.

On February 29, 2008, the long crisis appeared to end with an agreement under which Kibaki would serve as president and Odinga would fill a newly created post of prime minister with substantial powers. The two sides also agreed that cabinet posts would be evenly divided between the two men's political parties.

On April 18, 2008, Odinga was sworn as prime minister following weeks of negotiations over the composition of the cabinet.

Periodicals

Dagne, Ted. "Kenya: The December 2007 Elections and the Challenges Ahead: RL34378. Congressional Research Service: Report February 15, 2008. 14p. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=tsh&AN=30063687&site=isc-live

Gettleman, Jeffrey. Unity Cabinet Formed in Kenya, Ending Deadlock." The New York Times. April 14, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/world/africa/14kenya.html

Kimani, Martin. "The Consequences of Failure." Peace & Conflict Monitor February 2008, 1p. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=tsh&AN=31261123&site=isc-live

Murunga, Godwin R. and Shadrack W. Nasong'o. "Bent on Self-Destruction: The Kibaki Regime in Kenya." Journal of Contemporary African Studies 24:1 (January 2006) 28p. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=tsh&AN=20544169&site=isc-live

Stevenson, Jonathan. "Kenya's Retrograde Election." Survival 50:2 (Summer 2008) 8p. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=tsh&AN=31428229&site=isc-live