Poland and greenhouse gas emissions

Historical and Political Context

Poland is a central European country located south of the Baltic Sea, between Germany and Ukraine. It has historically been the site of conflict among its neighbors, and has at times ceased to exist, when the entire area of the nation was annexed by other states. In 966, during the kingdom of Mieszko I, Poland accepted Christianity. In 1386, under the Jagiellon dynasty, Poland became an economic power, and that power increased in 1410. The decline of the Polish economy began in 1795 and resulted in the partition of Poland by Prussia, Russia, and Austria.

It took one hundred years for Poland to regain its independence, in 1918. On August 23, 1939, Germany and the Soviet Union signed the Ribbentrop-Molotov nonaggression pact; in this pact, Poland was secretly divided into Nazi- and Soviet-controlled zones. Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, and the Soviets invaded on September 17. Poland became occupied by German troops after June, 1941, when Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The nation regained its independence in 1945, following the Yalta Conference; thereafter, the Polish Provisional Government of National Unity was formed. In January, 1947, elections were held that were controlled by the Communist Party, which established a communist regime.

Poland had became a Soviet satellite state; however, the Polish government was tolerant. In 1980, the independent trade union called Solidarity was formed. Solidarity became a political force, and in 1990 the country transformed its economy into one of the fastest growing in central Europe. Poland, however, was still underdeveloped and had high unemployment rates and poor infrastructure. Poland underwent significant political reorganization, becoming a democratic nation; it joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1999 and the European Union in 2004.

Impact of Polish Policies on Climate Change

International concerns for the environment and over greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions led environmental scientists—miners, coal processors, electrical and other engineers, economists, and others—to seek ways to save energy and decrease emissions during future development. This work, conducted under the auspices of the United Nations, gave rise to the Kyoto Protocol and new directions in the emission standards. The Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in December, 1997, entered into force in February, 2005. The objective of the protocol was to stabilize the GHG concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would minimize dangerous anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Poland ratified the Kyoto Protocol on December 2, 2002. The target reduction level of Polish GHG emissions is 6 percent in the period from 1988 to 2012.

Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and Council, issued October 13, 2003, established a scheme for GHG emission allowance trading within the European Community, amending Council Directive 96/61/EC. The directive was transposed into Polish law by the Act on Greenhouse Gas and Other Substances Emission Allowance Trading and eleven other regulations. Under this legislation, Poland is required to perform carbon dioxide (CO₂) monitoring for all installations that are covered by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. The goal is for all countries to cut GHG emissions and to find new energy sources to ensure clean, secure energy supplies.

In March, 2005, the European Commission issued a decision regarding Poland’s national action plan for CO₂ emission allowances under the E.U. emissions trading scheme. The plan sought to reduce the nation’s total CO₂ output by 141.3 million metric tons (16.5 percent) between 2005 and 2007. It was one of the four largest plans devised by European Union nations, covering more than eleven hundred installations.

Concerned to protect the environment, Poland became a member of the Party of Air Pollution, the Antarctic-Environmental Protocol, Antarctic-Marine Living Resources, the Antarctic Seals, and the Antarctic Treaty, as well as international agreements on biodiversity, climate change, desertification, endangered species, environmental modification, hazardous wastes, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, marine dumping, ozone-layer protection, ship pollution, and wetlands. Poland signed, but as of 2009 had not yet ratified, air pollution treaties governing nitrogen oxides, persistent organic pollutants, and sulfur.

Poland as a GHG Emitter

Coal-powered plants are major GHG polluters in Poland. In the early twenty-first century, Poland has experienced significant economic growth, and electricity consumption is expected to rise by 80-93 percent by 2025. Therefore, GHG emissions are also expected to increase.

Poland’s base-year emissions in 1992 were 586.9 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent. In 2005, the nation emitted 399.0 million metric tons, and it is projected to emit 420.0 million metric tons in 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Poland’s target emissions are 551.7 million metric tons, or 6 percent below the base-year emissions. Poland’s emissions were 32 percent below its base-year levels in 1988 and only 0.6 percent above that amount in 2004 and 2005. This decrease was a function of the decline of energy-inefficient heavy industry and of restructuring the economy in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. Between 2004 and 2005, emissions from metal production and energy-related emissions from manufacturing and industrial processes decreased. However, the emissions from transportation, household energy use, and services increased.

Emission models predict that Poland will meet its Kyoto targets in almost all sectors, which will stabilize around their 2005 levels. The only major exception is in the transportation sector, where emissions are expected to increase beyond their target before 2012. After 2012, however, Polish GHG emissions will continue to increase. GDP growth in 2008-2012 is expected to be over 6 percent, and emissions between 2010 and 2020 will also increase. By 2020, Poland should emit about 81.6 percent of its base-year emissions.

Based on a United Nations 2004 report, Poland is the twentieth-largest GHG emitter on the world. Poland has reduced its GHG emissions by almost 18 percent since 1990. According to the European Commission, the March, 2007, requirements will cause Polish firms to reduce their emissions from 239 million metric tons to 208.5 million metric tons per year between 2008 and 2012. The cement industry, powered by coal, is one of the largest emitters of GHGs in Poland, accounting for 3 percent of total emissions (1.4 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent). Poland attempts to trap some of these emissions in underground CO₂ depositional structures.

Summary and Foresight

During World War II, Poland’s economy lost 40 percent of its potential, and 66 percent of its industries were destroyed. Between 1949 and 1955, the People’s Republic of Poland was able to begin realizing a six-year recovery plan. The plan changed the socioeconomic structure of Poland, transforming it from an agrarian-industrial country into an industrial-agrarian country. Under the Soviet Union, an economic transformation led to a planning-based economy, with an important focus on industries. Beginning in 1948, Poland started developing heavy industry, following the ideas of Joseph Stalin. Stalinist industrialization brought the acid-making plant Polchem to Torun, the Nowa Huta steelworks near Krakow, and the symbol of Soviet influence, the Palace of Culture, to Warsaw. Environmental protection was not of concern during postwar industrialization.

In 1980, the Ecology Club was established in Krakow, following the green movement in Western Europe. The Ecology Club responded to environmental problems and abuses, blaming the Soviet Union for the state of Poland’s rivers and its poor air quality. New industries emerged; the industrial basis of agriculture was changed, and the nation became increasingly urbanized. The six-year plan created a stable economy that formed the basis for further socialist transformation.

After the fall of communism, the government of Poland became concerned about the environment and sought to develop a responsible environmental policy. In the late 1990’s, however, this attitude changed as a result of the relationship between central Europe and the European Union. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Poland found it needed to modernize and increase production to survive, while at the same time holding emissions below the Kyoto limits. After the breakdown of the Eastern Bloc, the country rapidly transformed to a market-based economy with strong growth rates, growing by 44.6 percent between 1990 and 2001. The transition to a well-developed, industrialized country was fostered by Poland’s accession to the European Union. The country’s main industries became machine building, iron and steel, coal mining, chemicals, shipbuilding, food processing, glass, beverages, and textiles.

Increasing production creates a higher demand for energy and causes an increase in GHG emissions. In 2007, GDP grew by an estimated 6.5 percent, driven by rising private consumption, increasing corporate investment, and the inflow of E.U. funds. Poland has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and must comply with its E.U. national action plan commitments. Poland has no nuclear power plants and relies mostly on coal to meet its energy needs. Many of the country’s coal-fired power plants have been operated for over thirty years and need to be modernized or decommissioned.

In January, 2005, Poland’s Council of Ministers approved a policy document entitled Energy Policy to 2025, which included a plan to build a nuclear power plant, to begin operation in 2021 or 2022. Since 1989, the Polish government has restructured the coal industry to make it more efficient, applying improved pollution prevention policies and technologies. In March, 2005, the European Union provisionally accepted Poland’s National Allocation Plan, in which Poland reduced annual CO₂ emissions by 47 million metric tons. Poland has already met its Kyoto Protocol targets and reduced CO₂ emissions by 30 percent of their 1988 level.

Key Facts

• Population: 38,500,696 (July, 2008, estimate)
• Area: 312,679 square kilometers
• Gross domestic product (GDP): $667.4 billion (purchasing power parity, 2008 estimate)
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e): 586.9 in 1992; 399.0 in 2005
• Kyoto Protocol status: Ratified, December, 2002

Bibliography

Agh, Attila. “Europeanization of Policy-Making in East Central Europe: The Hungarian Approach to EU Accession.” Journal of European Public Policy 6, no. 5 (1999): 839-854. Discusses the relation between Polish and Hungarian attitudes toward the European Union.

Damtoft, J. S., et al. “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Initiatives.” Cement and Concrete Research 38, no. 2 (February, 2008): 115-127. Discusses climate change and the cement industry as a CO₂ emitter, as well as mitigation methods.

Jehlicka, Peter, and Andrew Tickle. “Poland: The Environmental Implications of Eastern Enlargement—The End of Progressive EU Environmental Policy?” The Geographical Journal 165, no. 2 (July, 1999): 209-221. Discusses Poland’s environmental problems and national transition to sustainable development.

Slocock, Brian. “The Paradoxes of Environmental Policy in Eastern Europe: The Dynamics of Policy-Making in the Czech Republic.” Environmental Politics 5, no. 3 (1996). Describes the development of environmental policies in new EU member countries.