Ukraine Presidential Election 2010

Summary: Ukrainians in effect voted to overturn the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in February 2010 by electing as president Viktor Yanukovich, the chief target of the movement that had arisen as a rejection of the post-Cold War domination of Ukraine by Russia. In the second round of the presidential elections, Yanukovich narrowly beat Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Yanukovich and Tymoshenko had emerged as the top two candidates after the first round of voting in January 2010, which saw the incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, place fifth (out of 14) with under six percent of the vote. Discontent over a flailing economy appeared to be the major issue in 2010, although Ukraine's relationship with Russia--with which it was once allied as a member republic of the USSR--also played a major role.

Former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, target of the successful "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine in 2004, was elected president of Ukraine in February 2010. He vowed to improve relations with Russia that were strained when a coalition of pro-Western Ukrainians overturned results of the 2004 election in which Yanukovich was initially declared to have been elected president.

The contest in 2010 was in many respects a replay of 2004, but with the opposite result. One of the leaders of the 2004 street protests against alleged election fraud, Yulia Tymoshenko, lost to Yanukovich by about 3.5 percentage points in a February 7, 2010, run-off. The man who became president after leading the Orange Revolution, Viktor Yushchenko, placed a distant fifth in first-round voting in January. Tymoshenko initially challenged the results of the run-off in court, but later dropped her appeal, claiming she would not receive a fair hearing in court. She refused to resign as prime minister, however, setting up an ongoing political struggle with President Yanukovich, who was inaugurated on February 25, 2010.

Yanukovich promised to cut taxes and to encourage banks to offer lower-cost mortgages, as well as to improve relations with Russia, which could result in lower costs for natural gas, which Ukraine imports from Russia. In 2004, Yanukovich had been viewed as the pro-Russia candidate against the pro-Western Orange Revolution. But five years later, Yanukovich had adopted a more moderate stand, while his chief rival, Tymoshenko, as prime minister had improved relations with Moscow.

The 2010 election was widely viewed as a referendum on the Orange Revolution whose principle leader, incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, failed to get enough votes in the first round of voting, on January 10, 2010, to qualify for the run-off. Yushchenko had become deeply unpopular in light of severe economic problems, and had a falling-out with his one-time Orange Revolution ally Tymoshenko. Outside Ukraine, the election seemed to be a victory for Russia's attempts to exert influence over independent states like Ukraine that had once been part of the Soviet Union, or close allies in the Warsaw Pact.

Outcome: In the February 7, 2010, runoff, Mr. Yanukovich received 48.8% of the votes to Tymoshenko's 45.6% (the balance voted for "against all"). Outside monitors said the election had been conducted honestly and was an "impressive display" of democracy, unlike the widely disputed presidential election at the end of 2004. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko refused to concede, even after dropping her court appeal on February 20. She declared: "Sooner or later, an honest prosecutor's office and an honest court will assess that Yanukovich was not elected president of Ukraine, and that the will of the people was fabricated." Despite losing the election Tymoshenko remained as prime minister--Yanukovich had called on her to resign--and the election did not affect the balance in parliamentary seats that led her to that position, raising the prospect of a prolonged impasse in the government.

Candidates

In the February 7, 2010, runoff

• Victor Yanukovich, twice prime minister, and an unsuccessful presidential candidate in 2004, the leading advocate of closer relations with Russia following the 2004 Orange Revolution. Yanukovich led the Party of Regions (PoR), which he founded in 1997. Despite its name, the party largely represents the Russian-speaking, industrial areas of the southeast, especially Donetsk oblast (area or province). The party supports close ties to Russia (although officially it supports membership for Ukraine in the European Union). Yanukovich won the first presidential election in 2004, but the results were overturned by Ukrainian courts as having been corrupt. Yanukovich nevertheless remained widely popular, especially among pro-Moscow Ukrainians in the eastern part of the country. In the first round of voting he received 8,686,642 votes, or 35.32%, the most of any candidate.
• Prime Minister (since December 18, 2007) Yulia Tymoshenko, self-made millionaire (from natural gas imports from Russia), fiery, outspoken advocate for reform, a leader of the 2005 Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko is leader of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (ByT) party, an alliance of politicians from several parties of which the largest bloc comes from the All Ukrainian Union. It was organized in 2007 around loyalty to Tymoshenko, who had become prime minister and was widely regarded as a likely presidential candidate in 2010. Tymoshenko was a leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution and sometimes ally, sometimes rival of Viktor Yushchenko, leader of the Orange Revolution who became president in 2005. In the first round she came in second, with 6,159,810 votes or 25.05%.

In the January first round there were 14 candidates, including Yanukovich and Tymoshenko. Among the others were:

• President Viktor Yushchenko, elected to a five-year term in December 2004 after an earlier election was declared invalid by the Ukrainian Supreme Court. Widely acknowledged as the leader of the Orange Revolution against Soviet-era Russian domination and advocate of closer ties with the West, including NATO membership. Widely unpopular by 2010, he came in fifth, with 1,341,534 votes, or 5.45%. By the time of the 2010 elections Yushchenko had become a bitter foe of Yulia Tymoshenko. Some analysts suggested Yuschenko did more damage to Tymoshenko than her leading opponent--and chief target of the Orange Revolution--former president Yanukovich.
• Serhiy Tihipko, a businessman and former economics minister, who finished third in the first round. Tihipko ran the failed campaign of Yanukovich in 2004, then largely disappeared from politics. After Tihipko received 3,211,198 votes, or 13.05%, in the first round, Tymoshenko actively sought his support, including an offer to make him prime minister to succeed her if she won the run-off presidential election.
• Arseniy Yatsenyuk, leader of the Front for Change and once described as "Obama-lite." He came in fourth in the first round with 1,711,737 votes or 6.96%.
• Petro Symonenko, candidate of the Communist Party, received 872,877 votes, or 3.54%, placing sixth.

No other candidate received more than 2.5% of the votes.

(The results of the two candidates did not equal 100% since Ukrainians were offered a third choice: "Against All," which received about 4% of the votes.)

Issues

Relations with West versus Russia. Ukraine is the largest and arguably the most important former Soviet republic to flirt with close ties to the West. On this topic Ukraine is split, generally between the eastern half, adjacent to Russia, where Russian is widely spoken and where popular sentiments generally favor continued close ties to Russia; and the western half, where Ukrainian is the predominant language and where popular sentiment tends towards closer ties to the West. In broad terms, some Ukrainian nationalists, led by President Yushchenko, explicitly favor closer diplomatic, economic, and even military ties with Western Europe and the United States--ties resisted by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In 2004 a wave of peaceful popular protests, known as the Orange Revolution and led by Yushchenko, succeeded in overturning the disputed presidential election held that autumn and forcing a re-vote. The third leading politician in Ukraine, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was an ally of Yuschenko in the Orange Revolution but later broke with him, largely over the issue of how quickly and to what extent Ukraine should build ties to the West, especially NATO membership.

NATO membership. Since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the premier anti-Soviet military alliance, NATO, has extended membership to several members of the former Warsaw Pact, the Soviet counterpart to NATO. In 2008 the prospect that two former Soviet republics, Georgia and Ukraine, might also join NATO over the objections of Moscow were the subject of heightened tensions. These tensions spiked in August 2008 when Georgia sent troops into a breakaway (and pro-Russian) region, South Ossetia; Russia responded by invading Georgia. In solidarity with Georgia, Ukrainian President Yushchenko traveled to Tbilisi in August 2008, along with several other leaders of former Soviet republics. Russian Prime Minister (and former president) Vladimir Putin has made it clear that Russia would strongly resist Ukrainian membership in NATO--widely viewed as having morphed from an anti-Soviet alliance into an anti-Russian alliance.

Russian Black Sea Fleet. Despite Ukraine's independence from the USSR, under a 1997 agreement the Russian Navy's Black Sea fleet remains headquartered at Sebastopol on the Crimean peninsula, Ukrainian territory jutting into the Black Sea. Under a separate agreement Russia leases training facilities in the Crimea. The relationship has caused tensions, especially when Russia moves ships or forces without prior notice to Ukraine.

European Union. President Viktor Yushchenko long favored Ukraine membership in the European Union, a prospect not welcomed by Russia. Some EU members, such as Germany, resisted Ukraine's application, fearing that accepting it would alienate Russia. Despite the reputation of Yanukovich as favoring close ties to Russia, during the presidential election he emphasized his support for closer integration of Ukraine with Europe.

Energy. Ukraine has long depended on Russia for energy, especially natural gas. Repeatedly since the Orange Revolution Ukraine and Russia have disputed the price Ukraine would pay for Russian gas in light Russian demands to end long-standing subsidized prices that reflect the two countries' former relationship in the USSR. In 2009 Russia cut gas shipments on New Year's Day--saying it would send only enough gas for customers beyond Ukraine--in order to force payment of higher prices. Although the disputes were stated in terms of gas prices, many analysts saw a political component, noting that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was once head of Gazprom, the Russian natural gas exporter. These analysts have accused Russia of using the issue of gas prices to exert political influence over Ukraine to adopt policies favored by Moscow.

Bibliography

Official results, Ukraine Election Commission (English): http://resepobat.tokobutik.com/2010/02/ukraine-elections-ukrainian.html