Venezuelan Presidential Crisis (2019)

Date: January 2019–present

Place: Venezuela

Summary

The Venezuelan presidential crisis is a political standoff that began in 2019 over who is the rightful president of Venezuela, incumbent Nicolás Maduro or National Assembly president Juan Guaidó. Maduro, of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), has been president since 2013 and was reelected in 2018; he has presided over worsening socioeconomic conditions, including hyperinflation, food scarcity, mass emigration, and violent protests. On January 10, 2019, the day Maduro was sworn in for a second term, Venezuela’s National Assembly—its opposition-led legislature—declared his reelection illegitimate; the next day, National Assembly president Guaidó, a member of Popular Will, a moderate social-democratic party, announced he was taking over as acting president of Venezuela. Since then, more than fifty governments worldwide, including the United States, and most of the countries of South America and Europe, have recognized Guaidó as acting president. Maduro, meanwhile, retained the support of the Venezuelan military, as well as the governments of Bolivia, Cuba, Russia, China, and others.

Key Events

• December 2015—Legislative elections bring a coalition of opposition parties to power in the National Assembly, ousting the ruling socialists for the first time since 2000.
• May 20, 2018—Nicolás Maduro reelected president of Venezuela amid low turnout and charges of electoral fraud.
• January 5, 2019—Juan Guaidó sworn in as president of the National Assembly.
• January 10, 2019—Maduro inaugurated to a second six-year term.
• January 11, 2019—National Assembly declares Maduro’s reelection illegitimate, names Guaidó acting president.
• January 23, 2019—Guaidó swears himself in as president at a large demonstration in Caracas; the United States and several other countries immediately recognize him; Maduro severs diplomatic ties with the United States.

Status

By April 2019, fifty-four countries around the world had recognized Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela, while twenty-two continued to recognize Maduro as the country’s legitimate president. The split reflected basic geopolitical divisions, with the United States and most of its allies supporting Guaidó and calling for a democratic transition, and US adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran supporting Maduro and calling the standoff a US-backed coup attempt. Regardless, despite scattered defections, the Venezuelan military continued to support the Maduro regime, ensuring it would remain in place for the time being.

In-Depth Overview

Venezuela, which has the largest petroleum reserves in the world, was once extremely prosperous. But with the collapse of oil prices beginning in 2014—a year after Nicolás Maduro took office—its economy took a dramatic turn for the worse. In 2015 legislative elections, a coalition of opposition parties won control of the National Assembly from the ruling socialists for the first time since 2000. A power struggle between Maduro and the legislature ensued as the economy spun out of control. In 2017, Maduro announced the formation of a Constituent Assembly, packed with his supporters, to supersede the National Assembly and write a new constitution—a move denounced nationally and internationally as a power grab.

In 2018—by which time the country was wracked by shortages of food and medicine as well as spiraling hyperinflation—Maduro ran for a second six-year term as president, but many opposition parties were either banned from fielding candidates or boycotted the election. As a result, Maduro won with 68 percent of the vote in an election with a turnout of less than 50 percent, compared to around 80 percent in the preceding two presidential elections. His opponents at home and abroad denounced the election as illegitimate.

Also in 2018, Juan Guaidó, one of the opposition lawmakers elected in 2015, from the center-left Popular Will party, was elected president of the National Assembly. He took office on January 5, 2019, five days before Maduro’s inauguration to his second term. Guaidó and the opposition declared Maduro’s election and inauguration illegitimate, and Guaidó declared himself acting president, based on certain provisions of the Venezuelan Constitution. One of these was Article 233, which states that the president may become “permanently unavailable to serve” by, among other reasons, “abandonment of his position, duly certified by the National Assembly,” in which case the president of the National Assembly becomes acting president until new elections can be held. Another provision cited was Article 350, which states that the Venezuelan people “shall disown any regime, legislation, or authority that violates democratic values, principles, and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights.”

When Guaidó declared himself acting president, the administration of US president Donald Trump immediately recognized him, followed by Canada and most Latin American nations, except those with far-left governments of their own, such as Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador, and Nicaragua; Mexico, however, has remained neutral in the dispute. The Trump administration imposed further sanctions against the Maduro regime and said pointedly that “all options are on the table” for how to resolve the situation, implying the possibility of military action; this allowed Maduro and his backers to cast the standoff as an attempted US-backed coup, of which there have been many in Latin American history.

Key Figures

Juan Guaidó: President of Venezuelan National Assembly (2019– ).

Nicolás Maduro: President of Venezuela (2013– ).

Bibliography

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Herrero, A.V. (2019, February 4). In fight for Venezuela, who supports Maduro and who backs Guaidó? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/world/americas/venezuela-support-maduro-guaido.html

Herrero, A. V., & Specia, M. (2019, January 10). Venezuela is in crisis. So how did Maduro secure a second term? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-inauguration.html

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Meredith, S. (2019, March 28). What next for Venezuela? Guaido calls for final push to oust Maduro after Trump reaffirms support. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/venezuela-crisis-guaido-calls-for-mass-protests-to-try-to-oust-maduro.html

Neuman, W., & Casey, N. (2018, May 20). Venezuela election won by Maduro amid widespread disillusionment. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/20/world/americas/venezuela-election.html

Newton, P., & Pozzebon, S. (2019, January 10). With his country in crisis, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro begins another six-year term. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/09/americas/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-economy-free-fall/

Oré, D. (2019, March 23). Venezuela’s Guaido says Maduro is in his final phase. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelas-guaido-says-maduro-is-in-his-final-phase-idUSKCN1R40FU

Parkin Daniels, J., Zuñiga, M., & Borger, J. (2019, January 24). Trump says “all options on table” as Venezuela crisis deepens. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/23/enezuela-trump-president-juan-guaido-maduro-recognition-news-latest