History of energy from 2000 to 2010

Summary: An uncertain energy future seems to be among the greatest problems humanity is encountering in the opening segment of the 21st century, both in the current period and possibly beyond.

The last year of the 20th century, 2000 (also known popularly as Y2K), was eagerly anticipated many people. To the vast optimistic majority, it was a milestone that symbolized a future of hitherto largely unavailable opportunities in education, wealth, shelter, and sustainable development for all. The reality, however, is that as the 21st century has progressed, humanity is facing even greater challenges than ever, among them the profound uncertainties regarding our collective energy future.

Energy is not just “any old issue.” Indeed, the centrality of its importance has gained global recognition and priority. Although with varying degrees of commitment, people all over the world agree that energy may become the single most significant issue of the 21st century. Why is energy so critical to humanity? Nobel laureate in chemistry Richard E. Smalley of Rice University formulated a list he titled the “Top Ten Problems of Humanity for Next 50 Years.” The issues he identifies, from least to most important, include: population, democracy, education, disease, terrorism and war, poverty, the environment, food, water, and—most important—energy. Smalley sees energy as “the key to solving all of the rest of the problems—from water to population.” Energy runs machinery, it provides light and heat, it delivers food and medicine, and powers our vehicles. There has been an enormous increase in the demand for energy as a result of dramatic industrial development and population growth just within the first decade of the 21st century. However, as the century progresses it is becoming clear that there is currently far less supply than the current, and growing, demand.

World Energy Production

The world at 2000 had many options for energy sources, including but not limited to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels), biomass, hydropower, geothermal power, ocean energy, solar energy, wind power, nuclear power, and oil. While most of these serve people across the globe to a greater or lesser extent, some—such as ocean and solar power—largely belong to the future. For example, biomass was said to be humanity’s first source of energy, and still today it is second only to fossil fuels. Wood, crop residues, and other biomass resources are the key energy source for more than 2 billion of the world’s 7 billion people. This fuel is burned mainly in fires and cooking stoves. In recent years, biomass has also become of more interest as a possible offset to the use of fossil fuels in generating electricity.

As of 2005, the World Energy Council estimated biomass-generating capacity to be at least 40 gigawatts, larger than any renewable resource other than wind and hydropower. Biomass can supplement coal or in some cases gas in conventional power plants. Biomass is also used in many cogeneration plants that can capture up to 90 percent of the available energy by making use of waste heat as well as generating electric power.

Gains in Alternative Energy

Hydropower is also gaining momentum in the 21st century. According to the World Energy Council, the global inventory of dams includes 45,000 large installations and many more small ones. Hydroelectric power plants generated more than 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2010, and they currently supply about one-sixth of the electricity consumed worldwide. Brazil, Canada, China, Russia, and the United States currently produce more than half of the world’s hydropower.

As reflected in the most recent figures by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by the year 2000 there were 439 nuclear power reactors in operation with an overall capacity of 370 gigawatts. These reactors contributed approximately 15 percent of the electricity generated worldwide. In 2007, 35 nuclear plants were said to be under construction, and a “nuclear renaissance” was much discussed. For instance, a study carried out in 2003 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology predicted a near-tripling of capacity to 1,000 gigawatts by 2050. The European Commission’s World Energy Technology Outlook had predicted that nuclear power could provide about 1.7 terawatts by 2050. However, the trend is in question in the aftermath of the four-reactor Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011. That country has since shut down all of its 54 reactors, as local and national uncertainty about public safety became the overriding issue. Several other nations have curtailed, paused, or reversed their ambitious nuclear programs—most conspicuously Germany, which in 2011 declared it would phase out all of its 17 reactors by 2022.

Wind power expanded faster during the first decade of the 21st century than most observers had predicted before 2000. In 2007, the United States was estimated to have added 5.3 gigawatts of electricity-generating wind turbine capacity, representing a full third of the country’s new generating capacity that year. There is more wind-generating capacity being planned in the United States than for new coal and gas plants combined. According to the Global Wind Energy Council, worldwide wind power capacity has risen by nearly 25 percent annually in each year since 2004.

None of the aforementioned energies is comparable to the current utility of oil on a global scale. Indeed, it is incontestable that oil “runs the world.” According to Colin J. Campbell, petroleum currently provides about 40 percent of global energy needs and about 90 percent of transport fuel. Oil is central to the financial functioning of the global economy in both a commodity and a monetary sense. Any disturbance in the sector often precipitates global dislocations and unpredictability in prices, wages, and debt.

According to engineer Richard C. Duncan, who in 1989 advanced his transient-pulse theory of industrial civilization and followed it up in 1996 with a paper titled “The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age,” world energy production per capita is decreasing by about 0.70 percent per year and could spark regional electrical blackouts that, along with other factors, could cause energy production per capita by 2030 to fall to 3.32 barrels per year, the same value as in 1930. The rate of decline from 2012 to 2030, Duncan proposes, could actually run as steep as 5.44 percent per year, leading to an “Olduvai cliff.”

With predictions of possible peak oil production only a few years away, many are focused on ways to mitigate this energy crisis by investing in alternative energy sources.

Renewable Energy

Many companies and agencies are making significant investments in alternatives to the finite sources of fossil-fuel-derived energy. For example, hydrogen energy—seen by some engineers as the ideal, or universal, fuel—could be developed and adopted at a global scale. Hydrogen could join electricity as one of the global secondary energy forms. Hydrogen power should in such a case be produced from renewable sources, while fossil fuels must be preserved to make the long-term transition from a petroleum-based economy more broadly practical. Improvement of hydrogen technology over the next 20 years could slow global climate change and boost energy security. Both the transportation and electricity generation sectors would benefit.

The United States, with heavy dependence on foreign supply, has the opportunity to promote the development of hydrogen energy. In support of the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, President George W. Bush stated, “Hydrogen fuel cells represent one of the most encouraging, innovative technologies of our era. … If we develop hydrogen power to its full potential, we can reduce our demand for oil by over 11 million barrels per day by the year 2040.” Bush asked Congress to spend $1.2 billion on a new national commitment to take hydrogen fuel cell cars from the laboratory to the showroom. Such a commitment to hydrogen, once fulfilled in the United States, could be replicated among other foreign-energy-dependent industrial nations.

Nations both energy-rich and energy-poor are embarking on massive investment in renewable energies such as solar, wind, and geothermal power in order to strengthen their energy independence. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 contained billions of dollars for renewable energy and efficiency developments, including grants and loan guarantees for renewables development, fossil fuel improvement, energy efficiency programs, energy storage technology, and electric grid modernization. Section H.R. 1-24 of the act allocated $16.8 billion to the Department of Energy (DOE) for “energy efficiency and renewable energy” programs. Of that, $3.5 billion was to be allocated to renewable energy projects involving sources such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels.

When he signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, President Barack Obama submitted the following: “We are taking big steps down the road to energy independence, laying the groundwork for new green energy economies that can create countless well-paying jobs. … We will transform the way we use energy. Today, the electricity we use is carried along a grid of lines and wires that date back to Thomas Alva Edison—a grid that cannot support the demands of this economy. This means we’re using 19th and 20th century technologies to battle 21st century problems like climate change and energy security. … The investment we’re making today will create a newer, smarter electric grid that will allow for broader use of alternative energy.”

The 2009 act not only sought unprecedented enhancements in geothermal and solar technologies, but also dwarfed previous government commitments in four crucial areas of geothermal development: geothermal demonstration projects; research and development into enhanced geothermal systems; innovative exploration techniques; and the National Geothermal Data System, Resource Assessment, and Classification System. Additional activities on the solar side are leveraging partnerships that include DOE’s national laboratories, universities, local governments, and the private sector to strengthen the U.S. solar industry and make it a leader in international markets. Before these lofty national ideals can be realized, however, they must assume an international dimension by forming global alliances to share ideas and actions.

Bibliography

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