Pakistan Nuclear Weapons Program

Summary: In 1998, Pakistan became the latest country to test a nuclear weapon, joining the United States, Russia, Britain, China, France, and India in the exclusive "nuclear club." (Israel is also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons but has never confirmed that it does.) The leader of the Pakistani nuclear weapons development program, A. Q. Khan, subsequently admitted (but later recanted) having supplied information to Iran, Libya, and North Korea for their nuclear weapons program, making Pakistan a nuclear power and a leading agent of proliferation. Pakistan's road to nuclear weapons began in earnest when its subcontinent rival, India, announced that it had successfully tested a nuclear weapon in 1974. At the heart of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was the ability to produce sufficient enriched uranium for a weapon. In 1998, Pakistan tested six weapons. The same month, India conducted five nuclear weapons tests, significantly ramping up the stakes of the two countries' long-standing quarrel over control of Kashmir.

At the end of May 1998, Pakistan announced it had tested two nuclear weapons, joining the exclusive set of nuclear-armed nations: the United States, Russia, Britain, China, France, China, and India. (Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons but has never confirmed the fact.) Pakistan had set about developing atomic weapons two decades earlier after India announced it had successfully tested nuclear weapons.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons program took a unique turn, however, after it was discovered in 2004 that Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist who led Islamabad's program, headed a network that had transferred technological advice to other would-be nuclear powers: North Korea, Iran, and Libya. Khan publicly admitted heading the network, taking responsibility for its actions, and was put under house arrest. Khan later recanted, saying he had confessed only to spare his government embarrassment.

Although Khan's network was supposedly shut down in 2004, in June 2008, investigators discovered electronic blueprints in Switzerland, Thailand, and elsewhere of nuclear weapons similar to those developed in Pakistan. The blueprints caused nuclear non-proliferation experts to question whether the plans had been transferred to present or former customers of the "Khan network"-or even fallen into the hands of non-state actors, such as terrorists interested in developing an atomic weapon.

Developing a weapon. Pakistan's nuclear weapons program began in 1972, about two years before India announced it had conducted a "peaceful nuclear explosion" on May 18, 1974. Pakistan launched its development the year after the successful battle for independence by what had been East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) with the help of India, another chapter in the long-running rivalry between mostly Hindu India and mostly Muslim Pakistan on the subcontinent.

In 1976, Pakistan's government hired A. Q. Khan, an Indian-born Muslim who emigrated to Pakistan in 1952. At the time, Khan was employed in Holland at the European consortium Urenco, which operated uranium enrichment plants for electric utilities worldwide. Khan left Urenco in 1976 to return to Pakistan to head his country's nuclear program about two years after the government in Islamabad had announced such a program and, according to some accounts, after Khan had used his access at Urenco to gather technological information about enriching uranium, a key step in developing the fuel for weapons. Khan was later (1983) convicted and sentenced in absentia in Holland for attempted espionage—a conviction overturned on appeal.

More than twenty years passed before Pakistan tested its first atomic weapon in May 1998, when it detonated six devices, although many accounts have said that Pakistan had established enough material for a weapon by 1987. The same month Pakistan tested its first devices, India also conducted five test explosions. Pakistan's membership in the nuclear club extended the prospect of atomic weapons to a regional-level subcontinent from the global stage of the Cold War. Pakistan has not signed the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Distributing technology: The Khan Network. In early February 2004, Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist, A. Q. Khan, confessed to making nuclear technology available to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. Two days later, on February 4, 2004, he went on television to apologize, saying:

"I am aware of the vital criticality of Pakistan's nuclear program to our national security and the national pride and emotions which it generates in your hearts. I am also conscious that any untoward event, incident, or threat to this national security draws the greatest concern in the nation's psyche". "The recent investigation was ordered by the Government of Pakistan consequent to the disturbing disclosures and evidence by some countries to international agencies relating to alleged proliferation activities by certain Pakistanis and foreigners over the last two decades. "The investigation has established that many of the reported activities did occur, and that these were inevitably initiated at my behest. "In my interviews with the concerned government officials, I was confronted with the evidence and the findings. And I have voluntarily admitted that much of it is true and accurate". "I also wish to clarify that there was never ever any kind of authorization for these activities by the government."

Khan was subsequently punished by being placed under house arrest. In June 2008, in an interview with McClatchy newspapers, Khan recanted part of his confession, saying that he had only provided "very small advice." He said, "When Iran and Libya wanted to do their program, they asked our advice. We said: 'OK, these are the suppliers who provide all.'" He said information used by North Korea had come from Russia.

Chronology

1953: Pakistani foreign minister says his country has no policy regarding atomic weapons and welcomes the US "Atoms for Peace" program.

1954: Pakistan establishes an atomic research group as part of a new organization of scientific research, including a High Tension and Nuclear Research Laboratory at Government College, Lahore.

1955: The Pakistan Atomic Energy Committee is established to formulate atomic energy policy. The US and Pakistan signs an agreement to share peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Washington and Lahore agree to cooperate on peaceful uses of nuclear energy, The US offers $350,000 to help pay for a pool-type reactor.

1956: Pakistan establishes a national Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) to promote "peaceful uses of atomic energy."

1957-1959: PAEC seeks to import a CP5-type heavy-water research reactor from the United States, which Washington refuses. Financial difficulties also restrain the import of a reactor. PAEC chair Dr. Nazir Ahmad complains that acquiring a research reactor was delayed because of "considerations of a non-technical nature."

1960-1967: Pakistan sends 600 scientists abroad for training in nuclear sciences; 106 return with doctorates.

1963: A 5-megawatt research reactor starts operating at the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Research (PINSTETCH).

1964: Plans approved to acquire a 137-megawatt reactor from the Canadian General Electric Company (CGE) with financial help. The project is delayed for months because of Pakistani reluctance to submit to inspections. Foreign Minister (and later Prime Minister) Zulfikar Ali Bhutto begins lobbying to develop capability to build atomic weapons; President Ayub Khan resists.

1965: Pakistan launches war against India over control of Kashmir. The inconclusive war lasts from August 5-September 22, 1965. It underscores continuing tensions between the two countries and is cited in the ongoing campaign by hawks to develop nuclear weapons.

1968: Pakistan refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

1969: Britain agrees to supply a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant capable of extracting 360 grams of weapons-grade enriched uranium annually. Five Pakistani nuclear scientists are sent to Britain for training.

1974: India explodes its first nuclear weapon. Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto vows Pakistan will do what it takes to develop its own weapon.

1976: Pakistan establishes Kuhuta Research Laboratories near the capital of Lahore to build a uranium enrichment plant.

1978: The United States terminates military and economic aid to Pakistan after Islamabad refuses to ensure its nuclear program is peaceful.

1979: Pakistan makes several proposals to India to limit nuclear weapons, including mutual inspections, simultaneous adherence to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and mutual acceptance of full inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

1980: Pakistan announces it can manufacture its own nuclear fuel without importing uranium.

1983: Dutch court sentences Pakistani nuclear research chief A. Q. Khan to four years in jail after conviction on espionage. Khan had worked at a European nuclear fuel processing plant in Holland. A US government report says there is "unambiguous evidence" that Pakistan is pursuing a nuclear weapons development program and that enriched uranium produced at the Kahuta plant is for nuclear weapons.

1985: News reports say the US believes Pakistan successfully tested a "firing mechanism" for a nuclear weapon by using a non-nuclear explosion. Reports in the press that Pakistan is producing highly enriched bomb-grade uranium, violating an earlier commitment to the United States.

1986: A.Q. Khan visits Iran; the two countries sign a nuclear cooperation agreement. Journalist Bob Woodward publishes a report in the Washington Post alleging that the US Defense Intelligence Agency concluded Pakistan "detonated a high explosive test device" in September; other reports quote a Special National Intelligence Estimate as concluding that Pakistan has produced weapons-grade uranium material. Pakistani president is quoted as saying in an interview, "It is our right to obtain the technology. And when we acquire this technology, the Islamic world will possess it with us."

1987: India proposes a bilateral agreement to ban nuclear tests. US spy satellites detect a second uranium enrichment plant in Pakistan. A. Q. Kahn is quoted as saying in an interview that "what the CIA has been saying about our possessing the bomb is correct." China agrees to sell M-11 missiles and launchers to Pakistan.

1988: President Ronald Reagan waives a cutoff of aid to Pakistan for violating export control. In waiving the cutoff, Reagan said Pakistan had imported "material, equipment, or technology … to be used by Pakistan to manufacture a nuclear explosive device." A New York Times report said the US government believes Pakistan has produced sufficient enriched uranium to manufacture four to six bombs. President Zia tells the Carnegie Endowment that Pakistan seeks sufficient nuclear capability "to create an impression of deterrence."

1989: Multiple reports that Pakistan is preparing delivery mechanisms for nuclear weapons, including modifying F-16 fighter aircraft and a Hatf-2 missile. CIA Director William Webster tells a Senate committee that "clearly Pakistan is engaged in developing a nuclear capability."

1990: The US stops military and new economic aid to Pakistan over suspicion that it is developing nuclear weapons. US News & World Report quotes Western intelligence sources as saying Pakistan "cold-tested" a nuclear device and is cooperating with Iran. President George H. W. Bush announces (October) that he will no longer certify to Congress that Pakistan did not possess an atomic weapon, resulting in another suspension of military and economic aid.

1992: US officials say A. Q. Kahn has started talks with North Korea to obtain intermediate-range missiles in return for gas centrifuge designs and other aid to help Pyongyang enrich uranium. Senator Larry Pressler (December) says the CIA told him that Pakistan had built seven nuclear weapons and could drop one by air within hours.

1993: The Clinton Administration proposes revising US laws to relieve sanctions against Pakistan, arguing that by the time non-proliferation sanctions were added to the Foreign Assistance Act, India had already developed nuclear weapons, but Pakistan had not, thereby disadvantaging Pakistan unfairly. (The proposal was withdrawn in early 1994.)

1996: Pakistan commissions a nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium within three to four years.

1997: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif claims (September 6, 1997) that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons. "Pakistan's nuclear capability is now an established fact. Whatever we have, we have a right to keep it."

1998: India and Pakistan conduct nuclear tests: five by India, six by Pakistan.

2001: President Pervez Musharraf removes A. Q. Khan as head of Pakistan's nuclear programs, instead naming him Scientific Adviser to the President.

2003: Pakistan says (December) it is questioning Khan, among others, about allegations that Khan provided nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran, and Libya.

2004: Khan is removed (January) as adviser to the president. On February 4, 2004, Khan appears on television to apologize for endangering national security by spreading nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. Khan is placed under house arrest.

2007-2009: Militants carry out several attacks on the Minhas (Kamra) Air Force Base, believed by some in the international community to host the country's nuclear weapons.

2007: Aiming to keep radicalized individuals away from its nuclear program, Pakistan improved its Personnel Reliability Program.

2008: The US and India sign a nuclear cooperation agreement, which Pakistan publicly condemns. In retaliation, the country seeks nuclear cooperation with China.

2009: In November, President Asif Ali Zardari appoints Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani head of The National Command Authority (NCA)—Pakistan's governmental body regulating the country's nuclear weapons.

2009: China's National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) supplies the country with two additional pressurized water reactors, bringing the total to four—CHASNUPP-1 (ratified 2000), CHASNUPP-2 (ratified 2011), CHASNUPP-3 (ratified 2016), CHASNUPP-4 (ratified 2017). The US expresses concern over the reactor's construction's efficacy and states this violated the Nuclear Suppliers Group commitments.

2010: Pakistan continues to refuse to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and states that even if India signs the agreement, they are not likely to change their position. At the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, the country advocates for unfettered access to civilian nuclear technology.

2015: Pakistan announces its successful development of tactical nuclear weapons for use against India if needed.

2016: The country ratifies the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM).

2017: Conducts a missile test from an underwater platform capable of second-strike use.

2021: KANUPP-1 reactor is closed after consuming an estimated 1,709 tons of uranium from 1980 to 2020.

2021: The international community estimates the country possesses 165 nuclear warheads.

2023: Advisor to the National Command Authority, Khalid Kidwai, explains Pakistan's full spectrum deterrence posture—possession of strategic, operational, and tactical nuclear weapons capable of reaching all of India and its territories; possession of a full range of weapons in terms of kilotons (KT); possession of the choice of the full spectrum of available Indian targets.

Bibliography

Kristensen, Hans, M., et al. "Pakistan Nuclear Weapons, 2023." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 11 Sept. 2023, thebulletin.org/premium/2023-09/pakistan-nuclear-weapons-2023. Accessed 5 Oct. 2023.

Koch, Lisa. Nuclear Decisions: Changing the Course of Nuclear Weapons Programs. Oxford University Press, 2023.

Pegahi, T. Negeen. “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons and the Kargil Conflict.” Asian Survey, 2020, pp. 245–264. doi.org/10.1525/as.2020.60.2.245.

"Pakistan Nuclear Overview." Nuclear Threat Initiative, 5 Nov. 2019, www.nti.org/analysis/articles/pakistan-nuclear. Accessed 5 Oct. 2023.