Tajikistan and hydroelectric power

Official Name: Republic of Tajikistan.

Summary: The former Soviet socialist republic of Tajikistan has, despite the world economic crisis, grown considerably since the start of the twenty-first century and was developing its vast hydroelectric potential in concert with Iran and Russia.

The Republic of Tajikistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia, a former Soviet republic populated primarily by the Tajik people, relatives of the Persians. In the twenty-first century, like much of Central Asia and most of the former Soviet republics, Tajikistan faces numerous political and economic challenges, but it has achieved considerably greater political stability since the end of its 1992–97 civil war. Cotton and aluminum resources have provided it with some trade potential, although foreign aid and remittances from expatriates have still been necessary to keep the economy healthy. Tajikistan also enjoys a strategic central location in the middle of Central Asia and considerable potential for hydroelectric power development.

Although the world financial crisis that began in 2007 hit Tajikistan hard, in part because of its dependence on remittances, the country had seen rapid growth in the preceding years (2000–07) as it recovered from the previous decades (the country was part of the former Soviet Union, gaining its independence in 1991 with the dissolution of that superpower). The Tajikistan gross domestic product (GDP) was $47.467 billion in 2023, an increase of 8.3 percent over 2022. Privatization of industry and farms has been slow.

Tajikistan has no oil, but in 2022 mined 2.3 million short tonnes (Mst) of coal and could probably mine more with more developed industry. Uranium is no longer mined, now that the Soviet market is no longer available for it, but again this resource remains to be exploited if capital could be raised for its extraction. The government of Tajikistan has focused on attracting foreign investment to develop the country’s hydroelectric potential, particularly that of the Vakhsh and Panj Rivers.

The Nurek Dam on the Vakhsh River is the second-tallest dam in the world, at 300 meters. It was constructed by the Soviet Union between 1961 and 1980, and it includes nine hydroelectric generating units using Francis turbines, producing a total of 3 gigawatts. The Nurek Dam alone meets most of the country’s energy needs. In 2022, the first generating unit was refurbished to improve reliability and supply. The other nine were slated to be refurbished in turn. Also on the Vakhsh River is the Sangtuda 1 Hydroelectric Power Plant, which began construction during the Soviet period and stalled after independence. Construction was finally completed from 2008 to 2009 under an intergovernmental agreement with Russia and Iran. In return for its capital investment, Russia owns 66.39 percent of the dam, which produces 670 megawatts. Iran has helped to develop the Sangtuda 2 plant. In June 2011, Tajik president Emomali Rahmon and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke at a ceremony marking the start of operations of the first unit of the Iranian-built plant. Tajikistan has also entered into an agreement with the Chinese state-owned Sinohydro Corporation to develop the Zerafshan hydroelectric station.

If construction is completed, the Rogun Dam, also on the Vakhsh River, will be taller than the Nurek Dam, at 1,099 feet. It will have a production capacity of 3,600 megawatts. First proposed in the 1950s, with plans drafted in the following decade, this dam’s slow progress came to a halt after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the project remained in limbo until the twenty-first century, when the Russian company RUSAL, the world’s largest aluminum company, agreed to complete it. When talks with the Russian government about funding collapsed over disagreements about the controlling stake, Tajikistan attempted an initial public offering in 2010, hoping to raise $1.4 billion. It raised less than $200 million, but that was enough to continue construction for two years while it sought the remainder. Construction resumed in 2016.

Neighboring Uzbekistan has raised concerns about the dam’s impact on the irrigation of its cotton fields, in response to which the World Bank financed a study of the dam’s economic, social, and environmental impacts. Though construction was suspended in 2012 for this study, by 2014, the project had been greenlighted once more by the World Bank.

Bibliography

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