Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is a psychological concept related to people's perception after an event that the event could have been predicted before it happened, even when that is unlikely. It is sometimes referred to as "20–20 hindsight" or "Monday morning quarterbacking." Hindsight is looking back on something that has already occurred. The belief that the outcome of something could have been foreseen results from a combination of misremembered information, the sudden certainty that the outcome was inevitable, and an inflated belief in one's own ability to predict the event. Hindsight bias can be a problem because it can hinder one's ability to look for the true causes of an outcome and can, in some cases, cause blame to be assigned inappropriately. It has implications in nearly every aspect of life, including in the legal and medical worlds.

Background

Psychologists began formal study of hindsight bias in the 1970s. They determined that it is not a psychological problem but a normal function of the human brain. It is related to the human tendency to file like information together in the brain and to link information to reach conclusions.

The brain seeks to make sense of any information it acquires. When the outcome of a situation is still uncertain, such as during an athletic event or a political campaign, the mind is still gathering bits of information about how an athlete or candidate is performing and about the opinions of others regarding how the contest is going. Once the outcome is known, the brain quickly sorts the bits related to the eventual outcome—a poor performance by a participant during an event or a comment made about one of the participants being sick, for instance—and uses that as justification for the eventual outcome. This occurs even if that bit of information really had no influence on the outcome. However, the person who is remembering and reacting to the outcome will have the feeling that they "knew" how the event was going to turn out.

Researchers have determined that there are several factors at work in hindsight bias. First, people tend to misremember information after the fact. For example, although a person who "knew" a particular team was going to lose the big game will remember all the mistakes key players made, that person will also tend to forget the good plays or will consider them to have been less important than they were. Second, a person will tend to believe that the outcome they "knew" was going to happen was inevitable, and, therefore, very easy to see and predict in advance. Third, the person will tend to believe they did, in fact, predict that outcome—that they really knew there was no possible alternative way for the event to have ended.

All of this is related to the brain's desire for order and its ability to create a story line that fits the available information. It is also related to the human need for closure. This tendency allows the mind to make "jumps" from actual facts to perceived facts, sometimes resulting in erroneous conclusions. Finally, the natural human tendency is toward self-promotion; believing that one has successfully predicted the outcome of something helps to bolster a favorable self-image. It is also common for an individual to think they have the mental capability to anticipate any potential outcome; a person who fails to perceive an outcome and feels that they should have may consider this a blow to their self-esteem.

Overview

Although hindsight bias is a natural function of the human mind, it is nonetheless problematic. Sometimes, a person who experiences a negative event has the feeling afterward that the event could have been prevented. If the person feels that they failed to see the outcome in advance and could have prevented it, this can have a damaging effect on mental health. For instance, if someone makes an investment that ends up failing, that person may remember only the potential warning signs of the impending problem without remembering that there were also many potential good signs. This can cause a higher degree of self-blame than is appropriate.

Hindsight bias can also be a problem when people think that someone else should have been able to predict an outcome. For instance, after a murder, people may point to signs in the killer's behavior—such as cruelty to animals, a preoccupation with weapons, and changes in mood—to argue that such signs should have "predicted" the attack. In actuality, these signs may not have been as clear-cut before the event. This is often a factor in legal cases and medical malpractice issues, where knowing all the facts after an event leads people to believe the facts were just as clear beforehand and the outcome was, therefore, predictable.

Another drawback to hindsight bias is that it can prevent people from discovering the true reason an event unfolded the way it did. For instance, if a teacher "knew" a certain student was going to do poorly on a test because they failed to turn in their homework twice and was absent several times, the teacher might blame the student's inattentiveness for the outcome instead of noticing that the student was being bullied by classmates.

Researchers have determined that hindsight bias is difficult to control even when people are aware of it. However, there are some ways people can minimize the effects of hindsight bias. First, people can realize that the future is not predictable. While it might seem as if an event were predictable from how it worked out, a situation is always more complex than it appears. Second, it is recommended that people use data and not feelings or perceptions to try to determine how a situation might turn out and consider all possible outcomes, not just the ones that "feel" most likely. Third, experts advise people to remember that probabilities remain the same and past success or failure does not automatically predict future outcomes.

Bibliography

Bernstein, Daniel M., et al. "Hindsight Bias and Developing Theories of Mind." Child Development, vol. 78, no. 4, 2007, doi:10.1111/j.1467-8624.2007.01071.x. Accessed 9 Aug. 2024.

Bernstein, Daniel M., et al. "Hindsight Bias from 3 to 95 Years of Age." Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol. 37, no. 2, Mar. 2011, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21299327. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

Boyd, Drew. "Innovators: Beware the Hindsight Bias." Psychology Today, 30 Aug. 2015, www.psychologytoday.com/blog/inside-the-box/201508/innovators-beware-the-hindsight-bias. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

Dubin, Alesandra. "What Is Hindsight Bias? How to Recognize It and Why It Matters." Business Insider, 24 Sept. 2022, www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/mental-health/hindsight-bias. Accessed 9 Aug. 2024.

Myers, David G. "Worst Coaching Call Ever? Hindsight Bias and the Super Bowl." The Conversation, 5 Feb. 2015, theconversation.com/worst-coaching-call-ever-hindsight-bias-and-the-super-bowl-37263. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

"Reducing 20/20 Hindsight Bias." California Institute of Technology, 25 Nov. 2012, www.caltech.edu/news/reducing-2020-hindsight-bias-37563. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

Reynolds, Emily. "Hindsight Bias Creates Illusion of Doomed Relationships." The British Psychological Society, 12 June 2023, www.bps.org.uk/research-digest/hindsight-bias-creates-illusion-doomed-relationships. Accessed 9 Aug. 2024.

Roese, Neal. "I Knew It All Along, Didn't I?—Understanding Hindsight Bias." Association for Psychological Science, 6 Sept. 2012, www.psychologicalscience.org/news/releases/i-knew-it-all-along-didnt-i-understanding-hindsight-bias.html#.WNrA-lKZOt-. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

Roese, Neal, and Kathleen D. Vohs. "Hindsight Bias." Perspectives on Psychological Science, 5 Sept. 2012, journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691612454303. Accessed 28 Mar. 2017.

Roese, Neal, and Kathleen Vohs. "Did You Know It All Along?: The Psychology of Hindsight Bias." HuffPost, 17 Oct. 2012, www.huffpost.com/entry/did-you-know-it-all-along‗b‗1973985. Accessed 9 Aug. 2024.