Climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation refers to proactive and reactive efforts to reduce the risk posed by current and future climate change. One of the most complex issues facing the world today, climate change is occurring at such a rapid pace that human adaptation is considered a non-negotiable response of highest priority. The questions surrounding climate change adaptation touch nearly every realm of society—scientific, political, moral, and ethical. Civilizations have risen and fallen at least in part because of climate change, so humankind’s ability to adapt is, in many circles, considered critical to its future.

For the past ten thousand years, Earth’s climate has been somewhat stable, which has allowed modern civilization to advance and agriculture to thrive. With modern life tailored such stability rather than to the warmer climate to come, experts fear that the world is heading toward a point of no return.

Drastic shifts in temperature, storm frequency, flooding, and other factors for which current societies are unprepared are likely to increase in frequency and unpredictability. Climate change adaptation seeks to reduce risks and, along with mitigation, is one of two primarily accepted policy responses. Adaptations can be proactive or reactive and must consider both current and future risks. The development of adaptations is urgently necessary, experts explain, because mitigation alone is not nearly enough.

Background

Natural climate variability cannot solely explain the change in climate because human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, has warmed Earth by dramatically increasing heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For example, carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years and is the main driver of climate change, which can cause floods and droughts, extreme heat or extreme cold, fires, and sea-level rises.

Because of extreme weather and other dangers caused by climate change, human response and adaptation have become prominent discussion points. One of the primary challenges, however, is that emissions are not only not abating but also increasing exponentially. According to NASA, a world expert on climate science, in 2013, the daily level of atmospheric carbon dioxide exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in human history. This level continued to rise. By 2022, the global average of atmospheric carbon dioxide was 417, an increase of more than 20 percent in 44 years. It rose again in 2023, when the global average was 419.3.

Climate change adaptation involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. While in large part that means reducing the risks of climate change, it also involves maximizing potential benefits, such as longer growing seasons or increased crop yields.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) determines vulnerability to climate change based on three factors: exposure to hazards (such as decreased rainfall); sensitivity to hazards; and capacity to adapt to hazards. The overall goal in modeling these vulnerabilities for a particular community or region is to reduce the determined exposure and, instead, enable populations to benefit from climate change opportunity.

Overview

Adaptation is specifically defined as any action that allows people to meet their basic needs of food, water, health, and shelter by adjusting to actual or expected climate changes. Multiple decision-makers are involved, and careful, considered choices are important given the risk of maladaptation.

Maladaptation occurs when adaptation has unintended consequences or side-effects and should be avoided because these actions can do more harm than good. An example is installing more air conditioning to cool indoor spaces. If more air conditioning inadvertently increases outdoor heat due to higher emissions, then the risk may outweigh the reward. Erecting a seawall to protect coastal areas in the short-term might destroy coastal ecosystems such as a coral reef in the long term.

Some have wondered whether promoting adaptation is akin to giving up on climate change, but experts note that adaptation is critical to protect life and can provide a crucial safety net while reducing damage predicted by climate models. They believe the focus should not be on whether societies should adapt but on how they should adapt. They should also consider how quickly and on what scale.

Individuals can take their own steps to adapt to climate change, including planting or preserving trees or reducing or clearing brush, while governments can work to build roads or bridges made to withstand higher temperatures and stronger storms, construct flood defenses and better drainage systems, improve water usage and storage, and better plan for heat waves and higher temperatures, among many other recommended actions.

Necessary actions largely depend upon region. Coastal cities may need to prevent street flooding, while mountainous areas may need to slow landslides and glacial overflow. Relocation, in some cases, is also already occurring and is inevitable for many more people as sea levels rise.

The impacts of climate change differ everywhere, which is why community adaptation is dependent on regional effects. For example, in some areas, climate change means more frequent floods, while in others, drought is a growing problem.

Examples of climate change adaptations are numerous and include preventing flood damage, ensuring an adequate supply of freshwater, outfitting buildings with heat adaptation in mind, modifying farming techniques by planting drought-resistant crops and increasing the efficiency of irrigation, and setting fishing quotas to prevent overharvesting.

Ecosystem health can be as important as public health when considering the value of climate change adaptations because sustainably managed natural resources such as healthy wetlands can filter water and buffer the coast during storms.

Overall, adapting to climate change is a dividend-paying proposition because these behaviors will reduce future climate shocks throughout the world, increase productivity and growth, and provide numerous social and environmental benefits.

Governments

The onus falls on governments as well as private sectors. Governments can take regulatory measures to reduce carbon emissions and set what is known as a renewable portfolio standard. They can mandate the production of a certain amount of renewable energy. When electricity providers, manufacturers, and consumers all seek cleaner, lower-cost energy sources, adopt more efficient technologies, and reduce energy demands, the ultimate goals of reducing emissions enough to limit global warming to 1 ½ to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels will be more quickly reached.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which operates the Adaptation Resource Center (ARC-X), an interactive resource to help local governments effectively serve their communities, offers adaptation strategies in numerous realms, including air, water, waste, and public health.

According to the EPA, in terms of air, warming temperatures can worsen quality, aggravate lung disease, and lead to premature death. Particulate matter in air also can increase due to the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Advised voluntary strategies to improve outdoor air quality include carpooling, making use of public transportation, biking or walking rather than single-vehicle use; keeping cars, boats, and other engines properly tuned and smoke-free; using environmentally safe paints and cleaning products; conserving electricity; composting inside facilities and the home; reducing the use of fireplaces and wood stoves; and avoiding the use of gas-powered lawn and garden equipment and the burning of leaves, trash, or other materials when high particle pollution is expected.

Adaptation strategies as indoor air quality worsens include maintaining proper ventilation and installing storm windows, weather stripping, and insulation as well as better preparing for prolonged power outages.

Climate change has detrimental effects on drinking water, wastewater services, water quality, and aquatic environments. EPA adaptation strategies include flood-proofing and construction of flood barriers such as levees, dikes, and seawalls; building infrastructure to store water, such as percolation basins and injection wells; and diversifying water sources by mixing the use of surface water and groundwater, desalinating, and trading water with other utilities when service is disrupted. Also suggested are increasing water-storage capacity by raising dams, removing accumulated reservoir sediment, and lowering water intake elevation; relocating infrastructure such as treatment plants and pump stations to higher elevations; and developing new systems to recycle greywater, clean waste from bathtubs, washing machines, and other sources.

The EPA also has stressed the need to analyze extreme events and develop modeling to better understand risks and consequences of events such as sea-level rise and storm surges and monitor groundwater conditions, reduce sewer inflow and infiltration, and project runoff and future water supply.

To protect waste facilities, EPA adaptation strategies include stabilizing or shielding shorelines from erosion, placing hard or soft armor on shorelines, fortifying concrete pads, enclosing and creating fire barriers around vulnerable equipment, and replacing existing vegetation with plants more tolerant of precipitation and temperature changes. Additional strategies include installing steel bars into ground surfaces to reinforce retaining walls, installing hurricane straps, burying utility lines, and replacing deteriorated impervious pavement with pervious materials such as asphalt or rubberized asphalt or brick/block pavers.

Public health is also a major concern and one that has prompted several EPA adaptation strategies. These include establishing urban forestry, tree, and landscape programs to derive benefits from trees, retrofitting public buildings with cool products, and changing zoning codes to allow for restrictions such as parking-lot shade requirements.

Green building initiatives also prioritize human and environmental health, as do local and state building codes that establish energy usage standards and conservation requirements. Cool roofing is a newer area of building code changes with the potential to save energy, especially during peak load times. In individual households, weatherization programs offered by states through the use of US Department of Energy funds help low-income families cover heating bills and invest in energy-efficient upgrades.

Communities

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified five main steps to help communities build resilience through what is known as the BRACE (Building Resilience Against Climate Effects) framework: (1) anticipate climate impacts and assess vulnerabilities; (2) project the disease burden while monitoring health outcomes; (3) assess public health interventions by identifying the most suitable solutions; (4) develop and implement a written climate and health adaptation plan; and (5) evaluate impact and improve quality of activities.

This framework enables health officials to strategize and create programs to prepare communities for the health effects of climate change. These efforts involve complex atmospheric data, long- and short-term climate projections, and epidemiologic analysis. Climate change adaptation is expensive, but experts believe that the investment is wise because spending now preserves more life and reduces later risk, and costs will only increase in the future.

Research by the Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) found a high return on investment in climate-change adaptation, with cost-benefit ratios between 2 to 1 and 10 to 1 and even higher in some cases. The commission concluded that an investment by the United States of $1.8 trillion before 2030 could create $7.1 trillion in benefits if five areas are targeted: (1) early warning systems; (2) climate-resilient infrastructure; (3) improved dryland agriculture; (4) mangrove protection; and (5) more resilient water resources.

Experts also have said that investment priority must be given to the communities that are most vulnerable to climate change, such as those in poor and developing countries already lacking basic resources. Wealthier countries are duty-bound to fulfill the $100-billion annual commitment to international climate finance that they made through the Paris Agreement to reduce vulnerability and ensure that half of those funds are allocated toward adaptation.

The World Bank estimates that adapting to 2 degrees Celsius of warming will cost $70 to $100 billion in US dollars per year before 2050, but even disparate researchers agree that the most inexpensive way to adapt is to do it now before options are lost and costs are higher. Climate change damage to which people cannot adapt is called residual damage, and avoidance of such has been strongly and widely advised.

Several climate change adaptation initiatives already have begun such as the Global Adaptation Fund, which finances pioneering initiatives in developing countries. However, progress has been slow due to several factors, including finances and technological limitations.

Results of Changes

According to the World Economic Forum, if mitigation and adaptation strategies are successful, within the next decade, day-to-day lives could include the following scenarios. Most traveling will be done by train or shared electric car equipped with algorithms that choose the best route to reduce consumption. Renewable energy will feed houses, and concrete buildings will cease to be built. Parks and gardens will replace parking lots. Fruits and vegetables will replace meat, dairy, and fish as dietary staples. Reduced livestock farming will benefit reforestation and free up land for food cultivation. Human beings will share more goods and services, buy less, and reuse more. They will recycle almost everything, and single-use plastics will no longer be manufactured.

These scenarios offer suggestions to researchers and educators as they continue to send a message about the importance of climate change adaptation and its partner, mitigation. Researchers say large gaps in understanding still exist about climate change adaptation, such as the extent to which remedial actions are reducing risk and whether actions that are effective now will be effective twenty years from now or in other locations. Adaptation strategies, therefore, will need constant revision and must be fact- and data-driven. Problematic in this regard is that only a few nations in the 2020s have the ability to effectively and properly track and evaluate implementation and results.

Adaptation strategies also have hard and soft limits. The former occurs when adaptive actions become impossible to avoid risks, such as when a small island becomes uninhabitable due to rise in sea level and lack of freshwater. Abandonment of homes may then be the only option. Soft limits, on the other hand, can be overcome with more financial, institutional, or technical support. For example, with adequate funding, a city might create a new lake for citizens to find shade and a cool place during heat waves.

Poverty and inequality also present significant adaptation limits, and the negative impact on vulnerable groups such as women, children, the elderly, and minorities might not be avoided. In these cases, climate change may force many to turn away from agriculture as a main source of income; such a shift would impact labor migration and urbanization.

The key to effective adaptation moving forward, therefore, is urgent, accelerated action toward effective, studied adaptation with as wide a range as possible.

Bibliography

“Adapting to Climate Change.” UCAR Center for Science Education, scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-solutions/adapting-climate-change. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

“Adapting to Climate Change: What Will the Earth Look Like in 2030?” Iberdrola, www.iberdrola.com/sustainability/climate-change-mitigation-and-adaptation#. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

Adaptation: What Is It And Why Do We Need It?”Climate Science, 27 Sept. 2022. climatescience.org/advanced-what-is-adaptation. Accessed 15 March 2023.

Behsudi, Adam. “What Is Mitigation Vs. Adaptation?” International Monetary Fund, Sept. 2021, www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-what-is-mitigation-and-adaptation-behsudi-basics. Accessed 15 March 2023.

“BRACE framework.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/brace.htm. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

“Climate Action.” United Nations, www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-adaptation. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

Fisher, Susanna, Dicker, Sophie, and Kyriacou, Georgina. “What Is Climate Change Adaptation?” The London School of Economics and Political Science. 15 Jan. 2021, www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-climate-change-adaptation/. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

“Public Health Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change” EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency, www.epa.gov/arc-x/public-health-adaptation-strategies-climate-change. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

“Responding to Climate Change.” NASA, 7 Mar. 2023, climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/. Accessed 15 March 2023.

VijayaVenkataRaman, S., Iniyan, S., and Goic, R. “A Review of Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation.” Science Direct, Jan. 2012, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S136403211100459X?via%3Dihub. Accessed 15 Mar. 2023.

"What Is Climate Change Adaptation and Why Is It Important?" Climate Promise, United Nations Development Programme, 30 Jan. 2024, https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-climate-change-adaptation-and-why-it-crucial. Accessed 12 Nov. 2024.