Population growth and resource allocation

The growth of the world's population poses significant challenges in regard to resource allocation and use. There is considerable debate among scholars as to how rapidly the human population will grow and about whether resource shortages will develop into a severe problem as the twenty-first century progresses.

Background

World population is closely tied to the pace of resource use, although the impact of population growth on resource use and depletion is debated among scholars. Some scholars believe that the population of the world can continue to grow with little or no adverse impact on world resources because of technological advancement and the substitution of new resources for scarce ones. Other scholars take a more pessimistic view; some argue that Earth’s population will outstrip the carrying capacity of the planet for wastes and will place severe strains on certain natural resources.

Earth’s Carrying Capacity

Although estimates of the size of the world population in the past vary widely, it is estimated that the world population numbered (in billions) 1.65 in 1900, 4.1 in 1975, 5.7 in 1995, 6.7 in 2009, 7.47 in 2015, and 7.94 in January of 2023. Estimates also vary widely concerning the carrying capacity of the Earth—that is, the size of the human population it can support without incurring serious, perhaps irreparable ecological damage. Several scholars have projected the human carrying capacity of the planet to be somewhere between 8 and 12 billion people. Others in 2022 estimated the capacity between 9.4 and 10.4 billion people. Still, others insist that, given the standard of living in most developed nations, the carrying capacity of the Earth has already been surpassed. Beginning in 1950, the fastest growing populations were in Africa and Asia, while the slowest rates of growth were in some European countries. This trend continued through the beginning of the 2020s. Industrialized countries tended to have low rates of population growth, but they placed the greatest demands on world resources.

The Positive View

Scholars such as Julian Simon have argued that a growing population is itself a resource, providing a labor supply as well as a driving force for innovation. Scholars holding this positive view of population are little concerned with the growth of population in the twenty-first century. Some argue that the rate of increase is slowing and will flatten out midway through the century. Some who hold the positive view see resource problems as generated by governmental misallocation of resources rather than by population growth.

The Negative View

The negative view of population growth enunciated, for example, by Donella H. Meadows et al. in The Limits to Growth (1972), emphasizes that continued population growth will outstrip available natural resources such as oil and some metals. In addition, the wastes generated by a growing population will be such that ecosystems will not be able to cope with the expanded waste stream, leading to increasing environmental problems. The negative view of population growth is often based on an estimated exponential growth rate for world population. Some extreme proponents of this negative view go so far as to accept natural disasters and epidemics as positive forces because they limit population.

A Balanced Scenario

A third view, a more balanced perspective, lies between the alarmist and Panglossian perspectives just described. The rate of world population growth slowed in the twenty-first century, although the rate of growth was still high enough in some countries that it could double the countries’ populations within ten years. Because advances in medical technology increase life expectancy worldwide, there is a relationship between fertility limitation and the age of the population. A country with a high standard of living, resulting in extended life expectancy, may not be able to accept a high fertility rate in its population. Conversely, some countries have high fertility rates but a low standard of living and few elderly people because of poor medical technology. In some countries, particularly European countries, family limitation is being practiced in such rigorous fashion as to lead to a decreasing population.

The relationship between population growth, standard of living, and resource is complex. The industrialized nations, which generally have low rates of population increase, usually have higher standards of living than less industrialized nations. The industrialized nations, particularly the United States, are also the major consumers of the world’s resources. Some of the world’s poorest nations, especially in Africa, have the highest rates of population increase. For example, in 2022, the population growth rate of Syria was 5.9 percent, and South Sudan was 4.91 percent, while the rate of the United States was 0.69 percent. The same year, seven other countries in Africa had population growth rates above 3 percent. UNICEF predicted in 2015 that the populations of Iraq, Bahrain, and the State of Palestine would increase by 50 percent by 2030. The less-developed nations, however, often consume very small amounts of natural resources, such as energy resources—although their energy may be exploited by the industrial nations. As these poorer nations industrialize, the general assumption is that they will place additional strains on reserves and will generate more pollution. On the other hand, another widely voiced prediction is that as the less-developed countries industrialize, their rates of population increase will slow significantly.

Various possibilities have been suggested regarding how to achieve sustainable development with an overall growing world population. The “resource substitution” argument of the positive school has some merit, although direct substitutability of resources is not always possible. The ability of the environment to absorb the additional pollution engendered by increased population growth is questionable, as is the hope voiced by some that people in industrialized countries will voluntarily alter their lifestyles and standard of living to diminish resource consumption.

The growth of the world’s population will pose great challenges regarding the allocation of natural resources, challenges that will have scientific, economic, political, and ethical dimensions. The situation must be approached as a complex set of issues to be faced on many fronts. Increased population will place increased demand both on finding new sources of all types of resources and on making more efficient use of present resource stocks. Increased population will also increase pollution, which in severe cases can make certain resources, such as land and water sources, unusable. Emphasis must be placed on doing more with less and on decreasing the waste flow. Throughout there will be continued issues of equity and troubling political questions regarding resource allocation.

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